13. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-7, 2-6, 13th overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Av
WR: Fr
OL: Pr
—
DL: Fr
LB: Av
DB: Fr
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
Arkansas has a better quarterback situation than some might think. Taylen Green is a true dual-threat quarterback who overachieved in the first year working with offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Backup K.J. Jackson has some raw ability worth following. If Green improves the way most Petrino quarterbacks do, he could give teams some trouble just by himself. The running back group also figures to be better than advertised, but perhaps by not as much as the quarterbacks. New Mexico State transfer Mike Washington Jr. could wind up being the featured back and the coaches are excited about his potential. No one really knows how receiver will shake out; nearly all expected contributors at both wideout and tight end are transfers, and in general, Arkansas’ transfer class is heavily dotted with small-school names. It’s sort of drawing to an inside straight, but there’s plenty of raw potential among some of these names – Florida State transfer Jalen Brown chief among them – and Petrino tends to make receivers better, too.
Offense: What could go wrong
The offensive line was terrible in 2024 and isn’t expected to be much better in 2025. Georgia Tech transfer LT Corey Robinson II is an upgrade for sure, but the rest of the group needs work. Arkansas ranked 104th in tackles for loss allowed and 110th in sacks allowed last year, and the thinking was that the Razorbacks would attract some bigger names as it moved from a smashmouth, oversized OL to something more resembling a modern pro-style group, but it hasn’t happened yet. Losing Luke Hasz at tight end was a terrible blow; his replacement, Rohan Jones, was playing at Montana State last year. The quiet panic surrounds the running back position due to injuries, which have hit three of the top four competitors for the job already in fall camp.
Defense: What could go right
Rush defense was stout in 2024, as the Razorbacks ranked 34th despite getting very little supportive help from the secondary. The strength of the defense figures to be the linebackers, where Stephen Dix, Xavian Sorey and Bradley Shaw figure to form a three-man rotation, and all of them are of solid SEC caliber. Special teams should be quite solid, especially punts and returns. Like wide receiver, Arkansas leaned heavily into the transfer portal for help along the defensive line, but the real name to watch is sophomore Ian Geffrard, who will be playing tackle at 387 pounds. He was a rotational piece last year and will have to be managed, snap-wise, due to his mass, but he’s the kind of player modern offenses aren’t used to having to contend with.
Defense: What could go wrong
Injuries have hit here, too, taking out Abilene Christian transfer DT David Oke for at least a few games to start the year. In general, the defensive tackles are massive, but that might be more of a meme than indicating actual ability. The front has sort of an old-school Mississippi State feel to it, where production sort of ran second to its similarities to a carnival freak show. Xavian Sorey also has to get healthy at linebacker, and for now, he isn’t close to 100 percent. But the real hand grenades may be the five secondary starters, who are all new for 2025. Arkansas was terrible in pass defense last season, ranking 110th in raw pass defense, 96th in pass efficiency defense and not forcing nearly enough turnovers. Arkansas is hoping a pair of transfer safeties, Oklahoma’s Kani Walker and Fresno State’s Julian Neal make the difference.
One-sentence summary: The Sam Pittman era appears to be slouching toward its inevitable end.
The Pittman experiment was probably the right idea at the time, but the addition of Petrino as offensive coordinator last year telegraphed the Razorbacks’ long-term plan. Pittman saved his job by getting to a bowl game in 2024, but Arkansas is a long shot to repeat that feat in 2025 – and if it doesn’t happen, you can count him good as gone. Whether Arkansas will again promote Petrino to the head job for a second run remains to be seen, but whoever is coaching this team is going to need a better roster strategy moving forward.
14. Kentucky Wildcats (5-7, 1-7, 14th overall)
QB: Fr
RB: Av
WR: Av
OL: Fr
—
DL: Fr
LB: Fr
DB: Av
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
Things should improve just by ending the Brock Vandagriff disaster at quarterback that plagued Kentucky in 2024. Zach Calzada is no longer the next big thing but after seven years removed from high school ball, he certainly has seen most everything by now and should be able to keep the train on the rails. Provided Kentucky can keep transfer RBs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell out of the doctor’s office, they should be able to craft a decent-to-good running attack using them and holdover Jamarion Wilcox, an underrated talent. Tight end Josh Kattus has a ton of potential, and the wide receiver group could take a big jump forward but only if Alabama transfer Kendrick Law finds a way to bring out his prep potential; he was a non-factor for the Crimson Tide in 2024 and ultimately lost his job in the offense there.
Offense: What could go wrong
The offensive line has to get better, but even if new LT Shiyazh Pete turns out to be the answer at that position, the best Kentucky can probably do is simply be average. The Wildcats ranked 114th in sacks allowed and 91st in tackles for loss allowed in 2024, and two-fifths of that problem kept their jobs (Jalen Farmer, Jager Burton). Fall camp injuries have been something to work through already, but the biggest potential tempest comes in the form of Calzada, who has had trouble staying healthy over the years. Kentucky’s backup is a redshirt freshman, Cutter Boley, who the Wildcats insist has had a good fall camp, but who was subpar in a four-game audition in 2024. Behind him, the depth chart drops off to nearly nothing, so Calzada needs to stay upright.
Defense: What could go right
Pass efficiency defense struggled in 2024 (72nd nationally), but Kentucky was 21st in raw pass defense and the heart of the secondary returns intact. Safeties Ty Bryant and Jordan Lovett are quality players, as is cornerback J.Q. Hardaway. D.J. Waller, a tall, lengthy corner who began his career at Michigan, takes over a starting role. Those four are good enough that Kentucky is said to be experimenting a bit with more of a traditional 3-4 look to its defense on more downs, which would be intriguing. The front seven has little starting experience, but it is a veteran-laden group eager to make its mark.
Defense: What could go wrong
Kentucky ranked just 86th against the run in 2024, and also had poor metrics on both third and fourth downs. In addition, the front four had trouble penetrating the backfield. The solution was … transfers from South Dakota and Wyoming? Kentucky also dipped heavily into the transfer pool at linebacker, with potentially the best of the bunch being former Marshall and TCU backer Landyn Watson. Long gone are the days where the Wildcats were attractive to NFL Draft scouts, at least on the front seven; this group has a decidedly down-market feel to it. Special teams are also going to inevitably take a step back following the departure of both kickers, but transfer P Aidan Laros has promise and even if Law doesn’t make an impact at receiver, he is a capable return man.
One-sentence summary: Unthinkable just two years ago, Mark Stoops might be coaching for his job.
Somehow, Kentucky fell all the way to 4-8 last year; even harder to believe is that this season might not be much better. Stoops has recruited better than most Kentucky head coaches up to the advent of the portal, but this roster makes it seem that he got caught sleeping, or just didn’t understand how to navigate the new challenges. It’s unlikely Stoops will be canned following 2025 regardless, because his buyout is somewhat obscene. But if Kentucky goes 5-7 like we think, 2026 will be a reckoning.
15. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7, 1-7, 15th overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Fr
WR: Av
OL: Fr
—
DL: Fr
LB: Av
DB: Pr
ST: Ex
Offense: What could go right
Statistically, Diego Pavia wasn’t too special at quarterback; in reality, he was the straw that stirred Vandy’s drink every game. Pavia accounted for 28 total touchdowns and kept the interception count low (4) over the course of the season, but it’s his leadership that matters. There’s really only one other name of note here and that’s TE Eli Stowers, who is currently injured in fall camp but expected to return. The Pavia-to-Stowers connection was almost solely responsible for Vanderbilt’s once-a-quadrennium win over Alabama, and opponents should expect Stowers to be the A-option again in 2025. There is some scattered experience here and there in the skill positions, but the most likely area of improvement could wind up being the offensive line, thanks to some heavy roster management – and this offensive line wasn’t bad by any measurement a year ago.
Offense: What could go wrong
A general lack of explosiveness – and that includes Pavia, who lacks the downfield cannon to stretch defenses – defines this offense. RB Sedrick Alexander averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year, which is not acceptable in a modern offense. The offensive line’s metrics were bolstered somewhat by alignment; Vandy flips the line weak-to-strong based on the playcall, much like an old wishbone offense. Teams caught up to this as the year went along, however. The wide receiver group is going to be paper-thin even if all the transfers hit. There is almost no SEC-level depth behind Alexander, either.
Defense: What could go right
The strength of the Commodore defense is often the linebacker group, and that shouldn’t change in 2025. Langston Patterson and Bryan Longwell are solid SEC starters, and Bryce Cowan could move up into a rotation with that group. Vanderbilt made a point to get more dynamic up front, and the trio of DE Khordae Sydnor and edge LBs Miles Capers and Keanu Koht are expected to help raise the team’s sack total. Vandy is also excited about Florida Atlantic S C.J. Heard. The real name to watch may be Randon Fontenette at the rover safety/LB combo spot; he’s more than a little reminiscent of South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori, now with the Seattle Seahawks. Vandy also should have some of the best special teams in the conference.
Defense: What could go wrong
Statistically, the secondary was a disaster in 2024, ranking 97th in raw pass defense and 119th in pass efficiency defense. Red zone defense was also a disappointing 79th. The additions to the defensive line should continue to help shore up a rush defense that ranked a middling 52nd, but we’re not sure the changes in the secondary are going to matter that much in the long term. The linebackers were stressed from two directions, and the Commodores probably wound up putting too many demands on Fontenette. There’s still a general lack of SEC-level playmaking ability up and down the roster, on both sides, but the Commodores usually have better personnel than this in the back of the defense.
One-sentence summary: Commodores have to prove that they’re more than just Diego Pavia’s teammates.
For all Pavia’s bluster and the rah-rah of beating Alabama and nearly knocking off Texas, most people probably forget that the Commodores still finished 7-6/3-5 for the season, including a loss to Georgia State. Give Clark Lea credit: He completely removed himself from the hot seat and established a model for how Vanderbilt football can succeed going forward. But the Commodores only have about half an SEC roster, and they’re not sneaking up on anybody in 2025.
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-9, 0-8, 16th overall)
QB: Av
RB: Av
WR: Fr
OL: Pr
—
DL: Fr
LB: Av
DB: Pr
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
The return of QB Blake Shapen has to help. Shapen was shaping up for a solid season in 2024 until he was lost mid-year to a shoulder injury. The Bulldogs also upgraded at backup quarterback, getting Florida State’s Luke Kromenhoek. The QB rating could hit “Very Good” quite easily. The running back group also borders on that rating, too, as both Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels put together solid 2024 seasons. TE Seydou Traore is a good talent, and if some of the transfers hit at wideout, Shapen will have his pick of weapons. The Bulldogs added several transfers to help bolster a deficient offensive line.
Offense: What could go wrong
Receiver could be a bust unless Georgia transfer Anthony Evans III and Oklahoma transfer Brenen Thompson – both, not just one – work out fully. Jordan Mosley is the only returning Bulldog with a proven resume. The much bigger issue is offensive line, where there is no way to describe the 2024 performance with any other word besides “decrepit.” MSU ranked 122nd in sacks allowed and 114th in tackles for loss allowed, and made life hard on a pretty good collection of running backs. Kentucky transfer Koby Keenum should help the situation at center, but aside from Virginia transfer Blake Steen, it appears the Bulldogs are going to go into 2025 with much the same lineup as before.
Defense: What could go right
The addition of Tennessee LB Jalen Smith, perhaps the most head-scratching of intra-conference transfers this year, should no less than double the effectiveness of the linebacker group. MSU added Texas’ Derion Gullette on top of that, likely pushing incumbent fifth-year starter Nic Mitchell into a reserve role. And of course, State has our favorite entry into the All-Name Team at linebacker, freshman Fatt Forrest. MSU will try to funnel all activity to the linebackers because there are holes pretty much everywhere else. There’s a chance the defensive line could be improved if Alabama transfer Jamil Burroughs can finally put all the pieces together, and if NC State DE Red Hibbler is as good as advertised. Safety Isaac Smith, who tackles everything, returns.
Defense: What could go wrong
The secondary was horrendous in 2024 and doesn’t appear to be much better this year. The Bulldogs’ starting nickel is a former Alabama walk-on, Brylan Lanier. State was 125th in total defense, 129th against the run, 104th in raw pass defense and 126th in pass efficiency defense last year. The Bulldogs were 132nd out of 133rd teams in sacks. Quite frankly, the totality of the defensive line transfers appears a bit underwhelming, so even if there is an improvement up front, it might not be noticed all that much.
One-sentence summary: Jeff Lebby says the roster has been improved … but it’s not going fast enough to suit the fans.
Not every team can be a winner in the new reality of college football, and Mississippi State was tragically forced to go through a major coaching change and program reset right in the middle of intense change, upon the death of Mike Leach. Even though the Bulldogs finished 2-10 in 2024, it was an improvement upon the 2023 nightmare, and there are signs that the Bulldogs are indeed improving the talent pool. But it isn’t by enough, fast enough, to keep them out of the cellar once more.