As Alabama and Michigan prepare to meet in the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Fla. – a rematch of sorts of last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal – the biggest question isn’t necessarily which team was better in 2024, but which team is better after approximately 50 players from the two rosters either have left via the transfer portal or have opted out of the bowl game due to injury, concern over draft status or some other reason.
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Such is the way of modern college football, which is an unholy mess of confusing deadlines, opt-out windows, transfer regulations and a money-rules-all atmosphere, the fault of which lies at the feet of both NCAA bureaucrats and short-sighted judges who all seem determined to bring death to the concept of amateurism. The result, for this game, is that Alabama and Michigan will meet, but it won’t be the same Alabama and Michigan that existed around the first of December.
For Alabama, there’s a revenge factor in play, not just for the players that came within an eyelash of beating the Wolverines in last year’s playoff, but also for Kalen DeBoer and the players and staff he brought with him from Washington, the team that lost to Michigan in the game following Alabama’s defeat.
With an eye toward a set of depth charts we hope are accurate, here’s our best take on what we’ll see Dec. 31 when the remains of these two rosters face off.
OFFENSE
Michigan and Alabama both underwent transition of their coaching staffs in 2024, but whereas Alabama completely rebuilt its philosophies under Kalen DeBoer, Michigan opted to replace Jim Harbaugh by promoting from within, elevating Sherrone Moore from his previous position as offensive coordinator. DeBoer’s first year helping Alabama introduce Air Raid concepts into its multiple, pro-style attack ended with decent, if somewhat mediocre results: 50th in passing offense, 41st in rushing offense, 38th in total offense. Moore, however, found much tougher sledding, despite keeping most of the same systems intact. Michigan finished the season ranked 129th in passing offense, 69th in rushing offense and 128th in total offense. Michigan quarterbacks threw for more interceptions than touchdowns, something you literally never see anymore from most college teams, especially contenders.
QUARTERBACKS
Davis Warren was the most-used quarterback in the Michigan system in 2024 … and he’s the only one left out of a three-man depth chart after the transfer portal got finished with the Wolverines post-Ohio State. Warren completed 63.5 percent of his passes on the year for 1,126 yards, but threw 9 interceptions against just 6 touchdowns. Michigan’s other two quarterbacks, Jack Tuttle and Alex Orji, have left the program – Tuttle due to injury concerns and Orji via the transfer portal. That makes the lone backup true freshman Jadyn Davis, who played in one game but amassed no stats. Warren is a pocket passer with limited running skills and won’t be able to pressure Alabama’s defense except by throwing the ball.
For Alabama, Jalen Milroe will get the start, even as he is expected to declare for the NFL Draft soon. This game will be his showcase opportunity. The loss in last year’s CFP saw Milroe getting the final carry and coming up short of the end zone, and so far he has seemed to treat this game as a way to atone for last year’s defeat. Milroe threw for 2,652 yards in 2024, and while he ended the year with a high interception count (10), he threw for 15 scores and ran for another 20. Backup Ty Simpson returns, as does Austin Mack, although Dylan Lonergan portaled out.
If Michigan manages Warren correctly, he could certainly keep Michigan in this game, but his big-play potential is far less than Milroe’s and with no experienced depth behind him, Alabama has a big edge here. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Alabama won’t have Justice Haynes for this one, as he took the portal to – Michigan. That puts both teams missing their primary backup running backs, as Michigan will be without Donovan Edwards. Michigan starter Kalel Mullings is a huge back, 6’2” and 235 pounds, and he ran for nearly 1,000 yards in 2024, but without Edwards the Wolverines will be down to a redshirt freshman (Benjamin Hall) who averaged less than 4 yards per carry on just 13 opportunities in 2024. Alabama will start Jam Miller, whose stats were fairly similar to those of Donovan Edwards. While Michigan got a lot of mileage out of Mullings, Alabama is in better shape depth-wise with Richard Young, Daniel Hill and Kevin Riley available. The other thing to think about when evaluating this category is how Jalen Milroe fits into the discussion, as he was Alabama’s leading rusher and at times a de facto running back. This one’s hard to call but with the way Miller finished the season, the presence of Milroe and a deeper depth chart, we’re taking the Tide again. Advantage: Alabama
WIDE RECEIVERS
Alabama will have only four receivers on scholarship available for this game … and the Crimson Tide is still going to take this category. Let’s talk about who’s still here, because the list is shorter than the list of players that are gone. Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams will start for Alabama, and both of them are far better than anyone Michigan has, or had at any point in the 2024 season.
The problem for Alabama is the Tide starts three receivers in its base set, and the most likely option Alabama has, Rico Scott, is going to still be eligible for a redshirt after this game, which shows just how thin the Tide is. Jaren Hamilton is the only other receiver on scholarship that will play in this game. Cornerback Jaylen Mbakwe will be moving to offense in the spring, but because of depth concerns in the secondary he might have to stay on defense for this one. Amari Jefferson and Aeryn Hampton are both on scholarship, but both have been injured (as has Jalen Hale) and aren’t expected to play. That means the fifth and sixth receivers are going to be walk-ons. Jay Loper Jr. was the first walk-on off the bench this year, and he has good hands and can play in the slot, but speed will be a question.
The other position will go to either M.J. Chirgwin or Kaleb Fleming, with Colby Cruz and Cooper Mollison the next names up. We think Loper will play but the rest have longer odds. The tight end position will at least be staffed fully, with C.J. Dippre and Robbie Ouzts starting, backed up by Danny Lewis Jr. (who briefly flirted with the portal before returning) and Josh Cuevas. For Michigan, the problem here is the leading receiver in 2024, tight end Colston Loveland, has opted out. That leaves Marlin Klein as the starting tight end, backed up by Max Bredeson. Both are good receivers and Klein caught more than 100 yards in passes this year, but neither is the player that Loveland is.
At receiver, Tyler Morris, the only Wolverine wideout with more than 200 yards receiving, hit the transfer portal. As a result, Semaj Morgan (23 catches, 134 yards, 5.8 avg., 1 TD) becomes the only available receiver with triple-digit receiving numbers. Peyton O’Leary, who came in just under the 100-yard mark, and Kendrick Bell will be the other two starters. Fredrick Moore and C.J. Charleston will be the primary backups. All but Charleston saw enough time this year to at least look like competent options, but there’s no bellcow on the Michigan side and the absence of Loveland is troubling.
Also, Michigan probably won’t use its running backs much as receivers; Mullings averaged a catch every other game this year, and Edwards (18 receptions) is gone. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Michigan lost part-time starter Andrew Gentry to the transfer portal, but for the most part Alabama will see the usual lineup. Myles Hinton and Evan Link will start at the tackles, Greg Crippen at center and Josh Priebe and Giovanni El-Hadi at the guards. Michigan finished the year ranked 23rd in sacks allowed and 43rd in tackles for loss allowed despite not having enough offensive ingenuity to help keep defenses at bay.
Alabama lost some depth to the transfer portal, but for the most part the Crimson Tide also returns its core group with the possible exception of left tackle Kadyn Proctor, who may be limited in this game due to a shoulder injury. News broke before Christmas that Proctor might consider skipping the bowl game in order to have surgery, but so far, there has been no confirmation on that. Right guard Jaeden Roberts also needs some extended rest to get over multiple injuries.
Assuming Proctor is available, he’ll start at left tackle with Elijah Pritchett at right tackle, Roberts and Tyler Booker at the guards and Parker Brailsford at center. If Proctor is out, or limited, a couple of different scenarios could come into play. Pritchett could move to left tackle and Wilkin Formby would be the starter at right tackle, or Booker could move out to tackle with Geno VanDeMark starting at guard. VanDeMark will play in relief of Roberts regardless.
Alabama is more or less without a fourth tackle for this game due to transfers; either freshman guard Casey Poe or walk-on senior Graham Roten will likely end up with that assignment. Advantage: Michigan
DEFENSE
Michigan will operate from a 3-4 look, while Alabama will deploy the 4-2-5 that, over the course of 2024, became a fairly effective defense, especially against the pass. Michigan ranked 15th in total defense in 2024, 3rd against the run but just 66th against the pass and 48th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama’s numbers were somewhat reversed, 52nd against the run, 30th in raw pass defense and 17th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama ranked 33rd in total defense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama is going to catch a break here because Mason Graham, the Wolverines’ disruptive defensive tackle and future first-round NFL draft pick, is skipping the game. So too is Kenneth Grant, who started next to Graham in the middle of the defense. In their places will be Trey Pierce and Rayshaun Benny. Benny was the rotational tackle this year with numbers approaching Grant’s, so Michigan should be fine at that spot.
The question will be depth, as Pierce was a part-time player, and now the Wolverines will have to rely on little-used players like Alessandro Lorenzetti and Ike Iwunnah to come off the bench. Lorenzetti would be making his 2024 debut in this game if he plays. Cameron Brandt and Enow Etta will split the weakside end spot with Derrick Moore, who also will play a linebacker spot similar to how Alabama utilizes the Wolf position.
Alabama lost Damon Payne Jr., Hunter Osborne and Jeheim Oatis to the transfer portal, so the issue for the Crimson Tide isn’t about getting new starters ready to go, it’s about what happens when the starters need a rest. Tim Keenan III and Tim Smith will start, with James Smith likely backing up both interior tackle slots.
If Alabama needs another backup tackle, it will either have to be the undersized Edric Hill, or a true freshman, Jeremiah Beaman or Isaia Faga. L.T. Overton and Jah-Marien Latham will split the Bandit end spot along with Jordan Renaud. As much as this looks like things would favor Alabama, in light of the difference in production in the running game, Michigan probably has enough to keep a slim edge here. The Wolverines far outperformed Alabama in sacks and tackles for loss from the defensive front.
With the loss of Payne and others inside, Alabama isn’t coming into this one unscathed, either. Advantage: Michigan
LINEBACKERS
Michigan flexes its defensive ends at linebacker, and Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart give Michigan a veteran presence outside. The Wolverines will have both 2024 inside linebackers available for this game, Jaishawn Barham and Ernest Hausmann. Hausmann and Barham were the Wolverines’ two leading tacklers for the season, and both are adept at stopping the run and making plays against the pass. T.J. Guy opted to stay with the program rather than either declaring for the draft or entering the portal, so Michigan’s depth is largely unaffected at this position group.
Alabama will lose Jihaad Campbell to the NFL Draft, but Campbell opted to play this game, and will start next to Justin Jefferson inside. Qua Russaw will get the start at the Wolf LB/DE spot. Depth outside for Alabama may be pinched a bit; Yhonzae Pierre may not play in this game due to injury, and there is no experience behind Russaw if he doesn’t. Jayshawn Ross would be the next man up, but the more likely solution would be to play Bandit ends Jah-Marien Latham and L.T. Overton together in a bigger lineup.
With Deontae Lawson out for this game, Alabama’s backup inside linebacker pool will be Jeremiah Alexander, Justin Okoronkwo and Cayden Jones, although none of them have much experience. Jefferson did a good job against Auburn in relief of Lawson, and Campbell is probably the single-best player on either side, but Michigan just has too much depth and experience to ignore. Advantage: Michigan
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The Wolverines struggled a bit in pass defense in 2024, and things didn’t get better for this game when Will Johnson opted out. That leaves Michigan some question marks at corner, where there were no full-time starters this year, although the Wolverines will be playing experienced players nonetheless. Jyaire Hill and Aamir Hall will start at corner with Zeke Berry as the nickel corner. Quinten Johnson and Makari Paige will start at the high safety spots. Keshaun Harris, Wesley Walker and Brandyn Hillman give Michigan more than enough experience off the bench.
For Alabama, it will be a bit of a patch job. Zabien Brown and Domani Jackson will start at corner as usual, but Alabama lost Devonta Smith to the transfer portal and Malachi Moore will miss the game as he recovers from surgery. That makes Bray Hubbard the most experienced safety in the defensive backfield, and he didn’t start until the middle of the year. DaShawn Jones will likely take over for Smith at the Husky position, while the other high safety spot will likely go to Rydarrius Morgan or King Mack. Kam Howard, Zavier Mincey, Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. and walk-on Kolby Peavy will provide depth.
The other question is whether Jaylen Mbakwe will stay at corner for this game or begin his move to receiver. If he moves to offense, Alabama would have to reposition Jones or Mincey as a backup corner if necessary, or use walk-ons Alijah May and Chase Davis. This creates a difficult pick in this position group; Alabama put up far superior numbers to Michigan in 2024, but is approaching this game with only half its bullets in the chamber. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Placekicker Dominic Zvada was nearly automatic in 2024, missing just one kick in 18 field goal attempts. Punting was another story, however, as the Wolverines finished 102nd in net punting behind Tommy Doman, who then entered the transfer portal. Charlie Mentzer will handle punting duties for the bowl game. The Wolverines were decent in both kickoff and punt returns and were good in kick return defense, but punt return defense was atrocious (130th). Alabama led the nation in that category, was solid in kickoff return defense and mediocre in the return game as it cycled through a handful of players at that spot.
Kicker Graham Nicholson got off to a bit of a shaky start but ended the season looking like his old, Groza Award-winning self at Miami-Ohio. Punter James Burnip is a weapon. The question for Bama will definitely be on the return side, as several of its kickoff returners – Kendrick Law, Emmanuel Henderson Jr., Kobe Prentice, Justice Haynes, etc. – are in the transfer portal. Either Ryan Williams or Jaylen Mbakwe will return punts, and both of them might be back on kickoffs. Bama’s edge in the punting game is what makes the difference here. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in five categories, Michigan in three, but the defensive back category is as close to a push as one can get. The OL-DL cross-matchups both favor Michigan, although the edges are modest.
What Alabama found out in last year’s College Football Playoff was that the Wolverines were incredibly tough on both lines of scrimmage, disciplined, and resilient. None of that has really changed, but the Wolverines do lack most of the firepower of last year’s team. The situation at quarterback already wasn’t the best, and even given the losses Alabama suffered in its receiver corps since the end of the Auburn game, the state of affairs within Michigan’s skill position groups is almost to code-red level.
The question for Bama is whether the Crimson Tide’s two lines of scrimmage can rectify the mistakes that plagued them the last time the Tide faced the Wolverines. Alabama’s defensive line simply must make more plays against the Michigan run, and when Bama has the ball, it has to find a way to go after an average secondary while at the same time, taking care of the football.
If Alabama can get a lead, it won’t be easy for Michigan to catch Alabama from behind. The Wolverines have to play stall-ball in this one and hope the defense holds. It’s a slim draw but then again, this is the team that beat Ohio State not that long ago.
Alabama 23
Michigan 17
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