Auburn preview: Similarities to OU game abound as Bama tries to get up off the mat

Similar records. Similar offensive philosophies. Similar ability to pressure teams with a competent running game. Similar defensive metrics.

Alabama is hoping the similarities end there.

Following convincing wins over Missouri and LSU, nobody thought Auburn would be able to mount a serious threat against Alabama in the 2024 renewal of rivalries. The game is in Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, which has become as big a problem for visiting Auburn squads as Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn ever has for visiting Alabama teams. At that moment in time, Auburn was a loser in five of its previous six games, averaging only 16 points per game across that stretch.

Then, Auburn seemed to come to life over the last two weeks. Following a win over Louisiana-Monroe, the Tigers followed that up with a shocking upset of Texas A&M, a potential College Football Playoff team. Meanwhile, Alabama followed up a comfortable win over Mercer by disintegrating in a 24-3 loss at Oklahoma.

No one is quite sure of what Alabama’s mindset is this week, but Auburn gave a glimpse into its approach when several Tiger players took to social media to talk trash about the Crimson Tide and some of its players, most notably star WR Ryan Williams. The Tigers seem to have confidence on their side, while Alabama is still trying to answer the questions of how the Oklahoma disaster ever happened in the first place. Combine that with a key injury to the Tide’s defense coming out of that game – LB Deontae Lawson’s season is done due to a knee injury – and the script of a month ago appears to have gone into revision.

OFFENSE

Hugh Freeze, if given the opportunity, would run quarterback RPO on every snap. Where Auburn has succeeded as of late, however, is in taking some of the options off the table and being a bit more straightforward in its offensive approach. Auburn currently ranks 31^st in total offense, 52^nd in rushing and 34^th in passing. Passing efficiency, which was a joke earlier in the year for the Tigers, has risen to 16^th. It’s a remarkable turnaround late in the year for this system. Expect to still see quite a bit of RPO looks, but Auburn is basically a typical pro-style spread team at the moment with a little bit of QB run. Alabama had morphed into a run-heavy outfit over the past month, featuring mostly the quarterback, but Oklahoma showed how to shut that approach down last week and it’s not yet clear whether Alabama will continue to feature it, or go back to a more multiple approach with Air Raid concepts. Alabama is 41^st in total offense, 41^st in rushing and 52^nd in passing after the Oklahoma debacle dropped a bomb on Bama’s stat sheet.

QUARTERBACKS
Auburn will probably start Payton Thorne – we say “probably” because Freeze is just unpredictable enough, as well as enamored enough with backup Hank Brown that Bama could wind up seeing both. Thorne has reversed his early-season interception tendencies, to the point that his passing stats are now superior to Jalen Milroe’s and Thorne isn’t a bad runner, either. The key for Thorne will be to not let Bama’s opportunistic secondary bait him into bad throws. The same could be said for Milroe, who was victimized twice by Oklahoma’s defense in that way (Milroe’s third interception against the Sooners was due to a breakdown in pass protection). Milroe is a superior runner to Thorne, and that’s where this category turns, even though Thorne will probably get significant yardage himself. As for the backup situation, Brown has a tendency to be loose with the football (3 interceptions in 43 attempts) and Alabama’s Ty Simpson is a better option. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
When Auburn began relying on Jarquez Hunter more, the offense started to look better. Hunter has been the beneficiary of more called runs and less reliance on Thorne getting his RPO reads right. Hunter has carried for 1,145 yards and 8 touchdowns on 174 carries (6.6 avg.), numbers which are more than those of both of Alabama’s primary backs, Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, combined. Hunter also has 21 receptions on the season and is a legitimate threat out of the backfield. Auburn backups Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb are not quite the backs that Hunter is, but they’re good enough to spell him a bit and keep him fresh. Alabama has stared to use Richard Young more and earlier, but this will primarily be a Miller-and-Haynes game. The Crimson Tide’s leading rusher is actually Jalen Milroe, but Bama had begun to lean too heavily on him and Oklahoma exposed it. Miller and Haynes need to approximate Hunter’s output this week by themselves. Advantage: Auburn

WIDE RECEIVERS
Auburn has gotten roughly equal production out of KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Cam Coleman as Alabama has Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, but the roles are flipped. Bernard is the transfer and Williams the star true freshman at Alabama, while Lambert-Smith was brought in from Penn State to go with the true freshman Coleman, and the numbers are reversed in each example. Auburn has better depth and production at wideout this year, due to the fact that Malcolm Simmons and Robert Lewis have been able to put up more stats than Alabama’s Cole Adams, Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law were able to, and Adams remains out this week. But Auburn’s tight end group is hurting; Brandon Frazier is out and Rivaldo Fairweather, who has been the trump card in the deck for Auburn in several games, is listed as questionable. If neither can go, Luke Deal or Micah Riley will have to get the job done for Auburn, and they’ve combined for 1 catch for 3 yards. That would be a big hit to the Tiger passing attack. Alabama will use C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts and Josh Cuevas there, whose production together equals that of Fairweather. This is a tight call to begin with but the health of Auburn’s tight ends pushes it to Bama this week. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Neither team has been particularly strong in pass protection, but Alabama ranks better in sacks allowed (51^st, compared to 90^th for AU). Things are flipped a bit in tackles for loss allowed in the running game (86^th vs. 59^th). This represents improvement for both teams, however, who were awful up front in 2023. Auburn has used more combinations up front this year, settling for now on Connor Lew at center, Dillon Wade and Jeremiah Wright at the guards and Percy Lewis and Izavion Miller at the tackles. Tyler Johnson, Bradyn Joiner and Ronan Chambers could see time as well. Alabama will start Parker Brailsford at center, with Jaeden Roberts and Tyler Booker at the guards and Elijah Pritchett and Kadyn Proctor at the tackles. Geno VanDeMark will see some action at guard and Wilkin Formby could do the same at tackle. Auburn’s issues have primarily come on the left side while Alabama has struggled as of late to solidify the right side of the line. This is really a push but the presence of Brailsford and Booker give Alabama a bit of an edge; the key for Bama is getting a different Pritchett to show up at right tackle this week, or just making the switch to Formby early on. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Auburn’s defense is set up more like Alabama’s old 3-4 over/under concept, while Alabama is now in the 4-2-5 look that Auburn used for a large chunk of the previous 20 years. Statistically, they’re about the same, but flipped in regard to rushing vs. passing numbers. Auburn is 24^th in total defense, 20^th against the run but 50^th against the pass and 40^th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama is 28^th in total defense, 63^rd against the run and 17^th against the pass and 15^th in pass efficiency defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Auburn ranks 38^th in sacks and 69^th in tackles for loss, but the interior tackle positions have been largely absent in those figures. Philip Blidi and Isaiah Raikes will start inside for Auburn, but they’ve combined for just 2.5 tackles for loss and 1 sack on the year. Malik Blocton, a true freshman, has been more productive coming off the bench; he and Quientrail Jamison-Travis will provide depth. Auburn gets most of its work done from the edges, which includes DE Keldric Faulk and what Auburn calls the Buck position, which is similar to the old Jack spot in Alabama’s former defense. Jalen McLeod starts there, backed up by Keyron Crawford. Faulk and McLeod have 14 sacks between them. Alabama will use Tim Keenan III, James Smith, Tim Smith and Damon Payne Jr. at tackle, with Jordan Renaud, Jah-Marien Latham and L.T. Overton at the ends. Alabama is 66^th in sacks and 81^st in tackles for loss. The interior of the Bama defense has probably been slightly more productive than Auburn’s, but the Tigers’ edge players bring a presence that Bama currently lacks. Advantage: Auburn

LINEBACKERS
With the loss of Deontae Lawson, coupled with the earlier loss of Quandarrius Robinson, Alabama is feeling the pressure on its depth chart. Qua Russaw is now the only real fixture at the Wolf position; Alabama has been using extra ends or moving Jihaad Campbell down from inside linebacker on passing downs. But with Lawson out, Campbell has to stay at ILB along with Justin Jefferson, who had some issues with Oklahoma’s physical scheme last week. Figuring out who the backups are now is a chore. Yhonzae Pierre is likely the first option behind Russaw, while none of the reserve inside linebackers have played enough to matter. Cayden Jones, Justin Okoronkwo and Jeremiah Alexander are the main options there now, but Jones has been hurt for a good bit of the season. Auburn will start Dorian Mausi and Eugene Asante at the inside positions and, when a strongside linebacker is used, Austin Keys comes in. Bama’s Campbell has as much sack production alone as Auburn’s entire linebacker unit, but Auburn’s group is deeper now with Alabama’s injury sheet suddenly an issue. If it were just Mausi and Asante compared against Campbell and Jefferson, we’d probably take Alabama, but there’s more to the story now with Lawson out. Advantage: Auburn

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Auburn’s secondary has been a revolving door this year due to injury, players leaving in midseason and general ineffectiveness at times. It’s odd in a modern defense to have only one defensive back in the top five in team tackles, but that’s the case at Auburn, where Jerrin Thompson, a transfer from Texas, ranks third. The other safeties will be either Caleb Wooden or Kaleb Harris at the other high safety spot, and either Keionte Scott or former Alabama DB Jahquez Robinson at Star. The cornerback spots will be some mix of Kayin Lee, Jay Crawford and J.C. Hart. Youth abounds here, as three of the above names are freshmen and two more are sophomores. Alabama will start Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown at corner, with Bray Hubbard, Malachi Moore and Devonta Smith at the safeties. DaShawn Jones, Jaylen Mbakwe, Red Morgan, Zavier Mincey and King Mack could also end up seeing time. Alabama has its own youth movement going on – three freshmen at corner, for instance – but Alabama has also settled into more of a defined rotation lately. Statistically, these two units aren’t close. Among other things, Alabama is 11^th in interceptions compared to 93^rd for Auburn. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Significant injuries in the kicking game are rare these days but Auburn lost PK Alex McPherson earlier in the year and it triggered a roller-coaster ride that saw Towns McGough go 5-of-12 and then get replaced by Birmingham Southern transfer Ian Vachon, who is 4-of-5 since the change but with only one make outside of 29 yards. Auburn ranks 21^st in net punting behind Oscar Chapman, though, who is skilled at killing punts inside the 20. Auburn ranks 7^th in punt return defense but only 83^rd in kickoff return defense. Alabama leads the nation in punt return defense but is 63^rd in kickoff return defense. James Burnip went through about five quarters of struggle between Mercer and Oklahoma before bouncing back late in the OU game; Alabama is 4^th in net punting. Placekicker Graham Nicholson continues to be solid. Auburn still doesn’t know what it has in Vachon, and the 12^th game of the year isn’t really the time to be making those kind of evaluations. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in five categories, Auburn in three, but just about everything is close other than defensive backfield and maybe special teams. Like last week, each team’s DL wins the battle on its respective OL-DL cross-matchup.

If you stop there, Alabama is a two-score pick in this game, especially since it has the home field. But the argument could be made that Auburn is in better shape at the moment, given Alabama’s shocking loss to Oklahoma and the loss of arguably its best defensive player in that game. Plus, Auburn is trying to find some kind of momentum in recruiting, where it is neck-and-neck with Alabama at the moment in recruiting rankings, and Alabama at the very least doesn’t have substantially more to play for given the College Football Playoff is all but out of the Tide’s reasonable reach.

It’s little secret how much value Hugh Freeze puts on beating Alabama, because he understands full well that his continued future employment depends heavily on winning this game more often than he loses it. Auburn also needs the win for bowl eligibility and to avoid yet another losing record, which has become surprisingly commonplace in Auburn lately.

But, Alabama is the better team, still. More talent, more talent at important positions, and regardless of record, the home field in this series will always be full, loud and intimidating. Alabama may be backing up into a win somewhat, but it’s a win the Tide should still be able – and expected – to put on its side of the ledger.

Alabama 27
Auburn 20

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN