Last Week’s Record: 7-3 (70.0%)
Season Record: 90-28 (76.3%)
We’re kind of sliding sideways into the final week of the season here at Predictions Dept. headquarters, as the 2024 season has proved to be one of our most challenging ever. This is Rivalry Week, of course, and just about any matchup on the board could be considered the most interesting of all.
ARKANSAS at MISSOURI
The Tigers are limping into the finish right along with the Predictions Dept., felled by a slew of injuries and sort of a general reversion to the mean for a program that has been camped in the SEC’s second tier ever since it joined the league. But that’s a far sight better than what Arkansas has faced in recent seasons, as the Razorbacks have fallen behind the rest of the SEC in terms of talent and, some would argue, the right level of leadership and acumen from the head coaching position. Both these teams are bowl-eligible, but this might be the one exception to our statement above about how many games look interesting this week. This one just looks like two teams playing out the string.
Missouri 30
Arkansas 23
AUBURN at ALABAMA
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FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE
Talk about a reversal of fortunes. Prior to the season, Florida State was getting mentioned in some circles as a national title contender. After a month, the Seminoles already smelled like week-old fish, while Florida was doing its best to get head coach Billy Napier fired. Now Florida is on a surge, winning in consecutive weeks over LSU and Ole Miss, while Florida State is headed for a 10-loss season if the Seminoles drop this one. It’s hard to bet against the home team in this series but Florida State has been lifeless for much of 2024. The roster changes Mike Norvell instituted over the 2023-24 offseason weren’t the right ones, and the Seminoles never recovered from a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland.
Florida 27
Florida State 17
GEORGIA TECH at GEORGIA
The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 but have been erratic, getting big wins over Miami and (and the time) Florida State, but also struggling to get past NC State and losing to Syracuse and Virginia Tech. They’ll probably give Georgia more of a game than the Bulldogs want, but this one’s being played in the wrong place if you’re hunting an upset to pick. Georgia is right back in the thick of the playoff hunt if it can just win this game, and when the Bulldogs want to be, they’re still among the best teams in the country.
Georgia 31
Georgia Tech 13
LOUISVILLE at KENTUCKY
Louisville has lost four games but each has been by tight margins, and the Cardinals are far more dynamic on offense than is Kentucky. Were it not for the fact that Kentucky may have discovered its quarterback of the future last week when Cutter Boley took over from Brock Vandagriff, we’d be taking Louisville in a walk. But if the Wildcats’ improved offense with Boley at the helm isn’t a mirage, the Wildcat defense is capable of shutting Louisville down. It’s hard to pick against SEC teams at home in rivalry games but Kentucky is going to have to prove it can handle Louisville’s offensive attack while also getting something going on its own. Otherwise, this will be an ignominious end to what could have been a promising season in Lexington.
Louisville 27
Kentucky 24
OKLAHOMA at LOUISIANA STATE
The question here is how this game qualifies as a rivalry, but we digress. Alabama fans who enjoy the technical aspects of analyzing football will enjoy this, at least, as it pairs a front seven capable of shutting out the lights against anyone with an offense seemingly incapable of moving the ball in modern ways … against a team that can’t stop anything consistently on defense and whose offense is highly dependent on a passing game that is prone to turnovers. Oklahoma is riding the high of beating Alabama and that might actually be a problem for the Sooners, because LSU is just as dangerous on offense as Alabama was, but for different reasons. LSU won’t try to pound the middle of Oklahoma’s defense the way Alabama tried, and the Sooner secondary hasn’t looked great against good passing teams. This is another one where home-field advantage might end up making the most difference.
LSU 30
Oklahoma 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE at MISSISSIPPI
Mississippi State has slowly gotten closer and closer to the possibility of pulling a big upset, and Ole Miss is coming off a game where it basically played itself out of playoff contention. The momentum is on the Bulldogs’ side and with neither team having anything tangible to play for, it’s going to be really hard for Lane Kiffin to get his team up for something like this. Luckily for Ole Miss, the game is in Oxford, but probably the biggest advantage the Rebels will have is QB Jaxson Dart wanting to atone for a horrendous performance against Florida last week. Ending his Rebel career losing to an in-state rival in full rebuilding mode probably isn’t on his bingo card.
Ole Miss 34
Mississippi St. 30
SOUTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON
The Gamecocks are one of the most impressive turnaround stories in the SEC in years, going from a team picked to languish at the bottom of the conference to one of the scrappiest, no-quit outfits in college football. Alabama’s win over the Gamecocks at the midseason mark is probably Alabama’s best win outside of Georgia. Clemson has done a good job staying relevant this season as Dabo Swinney continues to push back against modern NIL and transfer portal politics, and there’s a potential playoff berth for the Tigers here if they can win this game and get a little help. For South Carolina, it’s going to come down to how productive the offense can be against a team with a respectable defense and an offense that turned its own corner earlier this year following a terrible opening-week performance against Georgia. Swinney has struggled with this rivalry in the past but does have the home field. It might be the tipping point.
Clemson 28
South Carolina 27
TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT
The wild card here is a Tennessee offense that can’t seem to put together anything consistently. Vanderbilt’s injury list has been and continues to be a problem, but the Commodores have worked around the problem on defense well enough that, coupled with Tennessee’s offensive inefficiencies, gives Vandy at least a fighting chance. The problem Vanderbilt will face is a defense that can impose its will upon much better teams than the ‘Dores. Against solid defenses, Vandy has struggled to find potency. The Commodores haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game in a month, and hasn’t scored more than 27 since the Alabama upset, which seems an eon ago.
Tennessee 27
Vanderbilt 13
TEXAS at TEXAS A&M
We were wondering about Auburn looking ahead to Alabama last week; turns out it was Texas A&M looking ahead to Texas. The Aggies probably played themselves out of playoff contention with a 43-41 overtime loss in Jordan-Hare Stadium, so now their focus turns to ruining rival Texas’ year. The Longhorns are sort of sliding sideways into this one; the Longhorns have had only one good offensive showing over the last five outings, that being a 49-17 win at home over Florida. Texas A&M, meanwhile, has started to find the offense it was looking for but at the same time, has lost the plot on defense. The Aggies have given up 40-plus points twice in three weeks, both losses. Kyle Field isn’t an easy venue to play in, and as the Aggies welcome the Longhorns back to town as SEC rivals, the mood will likely be a mixture of rivalry and dread. Texas is probably locked into the playoffs either way but don’t expect the Longhorns to lie down in this one.
Texas 38
Texas A&M 23
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN