Several times each season in our weekly SEC Preview and Predictions article, we identify a game from somewhere around the SEC as being a potential “Upset Special” pick.
This week, we’d be tempted to mark this one up as one to watch.
In our preseason SEC preview, we identified Oklahoma as a likely 6-6 team. The Sooners sort of flew under the radar of national pundits who overlooked the amount of roster turnover Oklahoma had to endure. The offense, especially, appeared to be suffering from a lack of explosiveness. Once the season started, those fears came to fruition and the Sooners have struggled weekly to pressure opponents with their offense.
But the defense is a different story.
Oklahoma has been stout on rushing defense (18th nationally) and is a remarkable 24th in total defense despite not having an offense capable of possessing the ball (105th nationally) and shortening games. The trump card in the Sooners’ deck is head coach Brent Venables, who led some of the best defenses this century while serving as defensive coordinator at Clemson. He also has demonstrated success in the past scheming against Alabama.
But that was against Nick Saban, and Saban’s preferred offenses. Kalen DeBoer represents a fresh start for Alabama in this series. Can Alabama avoid the pre-Auburn letdown to continue its unlikely post-Vanderbilt title run?
OFFENSE
Oklahoma has been the picture of instability on offense, failing to find anything to hang its hat upon. The offensive style is a pretty standard one-back, pro-style attack but it ranks just 118th nationally in total offense, 86th in rushing and 115th in passing. There isn’t a single major offensive statistic that looks good; Oklahoma’s best offensive metric is 50th in red zone offense. Alabama comes into this game ranked 30th in total offense, 28th in rushing and 48th in passing out of its Air Raid-flavored multiple attack.
QUARTERBACKS
Oklahoma has used two quarterbacks this season, which is to say the Sooners don’t really have a quarterback. Jackson Arnold has thrown for just 1,243 yards while completing just over 60 percent of his passes. He has managed to keep interceptions to a minimum (3) but his QB rating of 125.7 isn’t going to wow anyone. Michael Hawkins Jr., a true freshman, has been arguably worse.
What both players bring to the table is the ability to run the ball a little on designed runs, and scramble out of the way – something that will be needed given that Oklahoma is missing four offensive linemen for this game, each of them a current or one-time starter. Given where Oklahoma ranks in sacks allowed – we’ll get to that in the OL section – the fact that Hawkins and Arnold have combined for 381 positive net yards means Alabama will have to consider spying the position. Arnold is slated to start.
For Bama, Jalen Milroe continues to thrive now that the offense has been reconfigured a bit to focus on the running game. Milroe has accounted for 32 touchdowns and is both the team’s leading passer and rusher. As Alabama showed against Mercer last week, the QB depth chart is obscene. Any of Alabama’s three scholarshipped backups would probably be starting for Oklahoma. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Given the total lack of a passing threat, the fact that Jovantae Barnes has been able to put up even average stats for a running back (122 carries, 577 yards, 4.7 avg., 5 TD; 17 receptions for 123 yards and 1 TD) is somewhat of an accomplishment. But Barnes is listed as doubtful for this game, which pushes up either true freshman Taylor Tatum or sophomore Gavin Sawchuk to the starting role. Tatum has been more explosive than Barnes but in far fewer carries; Sawchuk is averaging 2.1 yards per tote.
Depending on how you figure Jalen Milroe into this, Alabama has either had a disappointing season at the running back position or is on schedule. Neither Jam Miller nor Justice Haynes have had the breakout year pundits were expecting, although Miller’s hard-running attitude and value as a third-down back have been nice. Richard Young has seen his playing time increase over the last two weeks and may get an audition in this one. All three have been more productive than Oklahoma’s Barnes on a per-carry evaluation basis. Then throw in Milroe and what’s already a decent Alabama edge goes several steps beyond that. Advantage: Alabama
WIDE RECEIVERS
Oklahoma’s depth chart has been decimated by injuries here; the Sooners will enter this game with four players listed as out, including at least two (Nic Anderson, Deion Burks) who were expected to be major parts of the Sooner offense. As such, the starters will be two transfers (Brenen Thompson, J.J. Hester) and a depth chart made up mostly of true freshmen. Hester has shown nice ability to be a deep threat, averaging more than 20 yards per reception, but he has only 13 total receptions and 1 touchdown. The team’s leading receiver is actually a tight end, Bauer Sharp, who has caught 39 passes for 299 yards – a 7.7-yard average.
Alabama has had its own issues at one receiver spot, mostly coming downstream from Cole Adams’ injury, but what is there – Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, Kendrick Law and some emerging younger players – has been more than solid. Williams is going to threaten the 1,000-yard mark this year despite not playing for a high-flying passing attack. At tight end, C.J. Dippre, Josh Cuevas and Robbie Ouzts have combined to make the spot a strength. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Oklahoma is dead last nationally – 133rd – in sacks allowed, and will be without three current or former starters and with another starter listed as doubtful. Yikes. The Sooners also rank 129th in tackles for loss allowed in the running game.
This could end up looking something like what Alabama faced last week against Mercer, who despite having a good defense (for the FCS level) didn’t have an offensive line capable of slowing down the Tide’s defenders. Troy Everett is slated to start at center, with Heath Ozaeta and Febechi Nwaiwu at the guards and Logan Howland and Spencer Brown at the tackles. Because of the injury situation, outside of the center position, all backups are true freshmen. The left side of Howland and Ozaeta are both freshmen.
Alabama’s line has strengthened behind the edits to the offensive style wholesale; Parker Brailsford starts at center with Tyler Booker, Jaeden Roberts and Geno VanDeMark at the guards, and Kadyn Proctor, Elijah Pritchett and Wilkin Formby at the tackles. Alabama could use a bit more from Pritchett at right tackle but we’re seeing steady improvement in this unit weekly either way. Alabama wins the battle of the metrics and certainly the injury tent here. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
If you’re wondering where the talk of a potential upset could be coming from, look no further. The Sooners are one of the best and most inventive 4-2-5 teams in the country, solid against the run and a product of Venables’ ingenuity. Alabama’s defense has been getting better as the season has gone along, with the most eye-popping stat at the moment being a rating of 4th in turnover margin, set up by top-10 rankings in both fumbles recovered and interceptions. Alabama is also 10th in scoring defense, in large part due to getting more turnovers, which helps offset more average raw defense metrics in rushing (52nd) and passing (35th).
DEFENSIVE LINE
Oklahoma’s strength is up front and immediately evident. The Sooners rank 7th in sacks and 5th in tackles for loss. They’ve recorded 26 PBUs, more than 33 percent more than their own, troubled offensive line has allowed. Ethan Downs and R. Mason Thomas are longtime program guys who will start at defensive end, while Damonic Williams and true freshman Jayden Jackson will start at the tackle spots. Thomas is the name to watch off the corner, as he has 7 sacks and specializes in pressuring the quarterback. Caiden Woullard and Trace Ford will back up the end spots, while Gracen Halton and Da’Jon Terry will back up the tackles; Halton is as good as any starter.
Alabama will use Tim Smith, James Smith, Tim Keenan III and Damon Payne Jr. at tackle, with Jah-Marien Latham and L.T. Overton on one side and Qua Russaw and, most likely, Yhonzae Pierre on the other. The injury to Quandarrius Robinson will test Alabama, because even though Pierre doesn’t show up on the injury report this week, he left the Mercer game with what looked like a hamstring injury and Alabama hasn’t talked much about it since. Keanu Koht is no longer on the team, so Jayshawn Ross is the next option at the Wolf spot, or it might fall to Jihaad Campbell moving down from linebacker.
Alabama has gotten better over the past month, but Oklahoma might have the best overall DL in the SEC. Advantage: Oklahoma
LINEBACKERS
Alabama’s duo of Campbell and Deontae Lawson have rebounded nicely from a midseason slump to become the terrors inside that people hoped to see before the season started. Campbell in particular has become a force behind the line of scrimmage. Justin Jefferson adds in as a third, smaller option who brings value especially on passing downs. It will be interesting to see how this group matches up to Oklahoma’s, because Alabama clearly has the advantage in raw athleticism; the Sooners close the gap by the inventive ways they use the inside backers in their blitz packages.
Oklahoma is led by MLB Danny Stutsman, who leads the team in tackles with 96 but who has just 1 sack on the year. Stutsman is very good in his run fits, though, and has done a good job making plays against running backs in the backfield. Kip Lewis and Lewis Carter will rotate at weakside linebacker, but neither of them have been the impact player that Stutsman has been, nor any of Alabama’s three. Oklahoma also will use a rover-type linebacker/defensive back hybrid, either Dasan McCullough or Samuel Omosigho, to supplement both the edge linebacker play and safety play.
Based on what we’ve seen over the past month, we’ll give the edge to Alabama, but this is really a push. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
For all the strength present in the front of the Sooner defense, it hasn’t carried over to the backend. Oklahoma ranks 55th in raw pass defense and 74th in raw pass defense; the raw pass defense ranking is similar to Alabama’s (35th), but Alabama has been far more polished in pass efficiency defense (14th). Both teams are missing some key people for this game – Keon Sabb for Bama, Kendel Dolby for Oklahoma – so that’s a wash.
Oklahoma will start Kani Walker and Dez Malone at corner, with Billy Bowman Jr. and Robert Spears-Jennings at safety. Bowman and Spears-Jennings both have big-play potential in the middle but the hybrid position manned by McCullough and Omosigho, while helpful against the run, can sometimes be leveraged in the passing game. Oklahoma has struggled to turn teams over in the backend; while the Sooners rank 3rd in fumbles recovered, they’re just 96th in interceptions.
Alabama will start Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown at corner, with Malachi Moore, Bray Hubbard and Devonta Smith at the safety spots. DaShawn Jones, Zavier Mincey and Jaylen Mbakwe are the primary backups. This is another area in which Alabama has shown steady improvement, and takes the category because of it. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oklahoma has two capable kickers, Zach Schmit and Tyler Keltner. Schmit hasn’t missed yet this year on field goal tries. Punter Luke Elzinga is probably the equal of Bama’s James Burnip. The Sooners are solid on both returns and return defense; overall, this unit rivals the defensive line as the best group on the team.
Alabama will use Graham Nicholson at placekicker, and he seems to have things rolling now after a pair of early-season misses. There will be a lot of pressure on Ryan Williams and Jaylen Mbakwe on punt returns in this game given the Sooners’ ability to create issues for opponents on returns. Alabama has been solid overall on special teams, but Oklahoma is a notch or two more consistent overall. Advantage: Oklahoma
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Oklahoma in two. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines hold significant edges over the opponent’s offensive line.
Limiting miscues will be the name of the game for Alabama, because Oklahoma can match Bama shot-for-shot in takeaway ability. The game being in Norman is obviously not helpful, as the venue is a tough place to play and Alabama’s focus, right or wrong, is partially on Auburn and beyond. Such is the reality of the new playoff structure.
Where we expect this will turn for Bama is on Oklahoma simply not being able to match possessions. The injuries are significant for the Sooners, and even without considering them, offensive skill position play – particularly at quarterback – has been insufficient.
But any time a team goes on the road against a defense this good, the upset is on the table.
Alabama 29
Oklahoma 17
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN