Last Week’s Record: 4-2 (66.7%)
Season Record: 76-24 (76.0%)
Anytime the Predictions Dept. takes a loss because it picked against Alabama in a game the Crimson Tide ultimately won, that’s a loss we’re happy to take. As Week 12 rolls around, there are really just a small handful of interesting games, led by Tennessee-Georgia. Most games will be one-sided affairs as teams try to catch a breather before the final stretch.
TEXAS at ARKANSAS
This was one of the most-anticipated matchups we knew we’d get when Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC. A former Southwest Conference annual barn-burner, Arkansas gets its chance to knock off a Texas team whose best win of the season is probably Vanderbilt. The Razorback defense has been too inconsistent to bet an upset on, however. Texas’ offensive potential is formidable, and if the Longhorns hit on even 80 percent of that potential, Arkansas won’t be able to keep up. Arkansas needs a chunk of turnovers and some inspired quarterback play to keep this game close. But they do have the Longhorns coming into Fayetteville, so keep this one on your watchlist.
Texas 44
Arkansas 30
MERCER at ALABAMA
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LOUISIANA-MONROE at AUBURN
We’ll go ahead and call it now: If Auburn finds a way to lose to the Warhawks, Hugh Freeze will be canned, no matter the cost, and probably in advance of the Alabama game. Louisiana-Monroe is 5-4 on the year but is also losers of three in a row coming in. None of the three were particularly big names, either: South Alabama, then Marshall, then Texas State. Only the Marshall loss was close (28-23). ULM’s biggest win? Either Troy or James Madison. Auburn may be going with another quarterback change in this one, but regardless, the Tigers can do enough to win this one simply by feeding their running backs. The bigger question is whether Freeze survives the season; Auburn is 3-6 with Texas A&M and Alabama remaining, both games that the Tigers should lose by multi-score margins. If Auburn adds ULM to the loss list, we’ll be seeing yet another coaching search on the plains.
Auburn 33
La.-Monroe 15
LOUISIANA STATE at FLORIDA
Things just can’t seem to get easier for Florida, which finally seemed to run out of gas in its most recent game, a blowout loss to Texas. The Gators have company this week, though, as LSU comes into this game having just got run out of its own building by Alabama. Florida’s problem remains health at the quarterback position, because without it, the Gators can’t survive a track meet. LSU’s defense was gashed by Alabama’s QB run game, but Florida can’t approximate that, either, so it looks like Florida is stuck between a rock and a hard place. For all the things LSU needs to fix, it looks like the Tigers will get more possessions this week due to Florida not being able to extend drives, and while QB Garrett Nussmeier continues to have issues with turnovers, he is too dynamic for Florida to completely stop, especially with some of the issues the Gators have had at cornerback.
LSU 41
Florida 20
TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
Given how unfocused Georgia looked against Ole Miss last week, this was starting to look like a game we’d take the Volunteers to win until Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava was injured in the Vols’ win over Mississippi State. Maybe, that is. Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel swears Iamaleava will be good to go for this game, but a couple of media outlets are reporting that this might not be the case. Without Iamaleava, Tennessee would be unlikely to upset the Bulldogs on the road, especially since Georgia now has to focus up and not lose another game, or risk missing the College Football Playoff. Tennessee’s defense will keep the Volunteers in it regardless, but unless Heupel is telling the truth, upsetting Georgia suddenly got a lot more difficult for the Vols.
Georgia 28
Tennessee 17
MURRAY STATE at KENTUCKY
Kentucky needs a break, and they’ll get it here against a 1-9 Murray State team that hasn’t won since Sept. 14. It’s hard to believe the Wildcats are on the verge of missing the postseason, but that will probably happen next week when they face Texas. For now, enjoy the win, UK.
Kentucky 48
Murray State 0
MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA
Missouri needed – and got – a miracle to beat Oklahoma last week, but South Carolina is a far better team right now than the Sooners are, the game is on the road and Missouri still doesn’t have a healthy quarterback situation, either figuratively or literally. South Carolina has certainly turned a corner, and managed to do it in the middle of the 2024 season, an impressive undertaking. The fact that the Gamecocks essentially used the loss to Alabama to springboard to success is even more interesting. Missouri certainly has the talent to pull off this upset if South Carolina decides to rest on its laurels, but if the Gamecock coaching staff can continue to keep their young team focused, we like USC to notch yet another victory.
South Carolina 24
Missouri 19
NEW MEXICO STATE at TEXAS A&M
Whatever magic New Mexico State had cooking in 2023 has all but evaporated in 2024. The Aggies are 2-7 with their only FBS win coming off an equally morbid Louisiana Tech team. The much superior Aggies, the ones from College Station, will get a freebie this week.
Texas A&M 47
New Mexico St. 6
IDLE: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN