In our preseason look at the 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide, we had the Tide finishing 10-2, with losses to Georgia and LSU.
Alabama wound up beating the Bulldogs, but dropped both its games inside the state of Tennessee and has its two predicted losses already. Now it’s time to visit Baton Rouge, which has historically been a Bama-friendly venue, to face a team that on its good days, boasts one of the best offensive units in the SEC.
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Unfortunately for LSU, at the moment the Tigers also boast one of the most extensive injury lists in the conference – and it isn’t full of down-the-depth-chart filler talent, either.
If Alabama plays LSU like it did Missouri, the Crimson Tide has an excellent chance to come home victorious. But Bama is 0-2 in conference road games this year and hasn’t looked well-organized in either loss. Winning in Baton Rouge, despite what previous Crimson Tide teams were able to accomplish, may be a tough sell.
OFFENSE
LSU’s offensive scheme since Brian Kelly took over has been a mash-up of pro-style and spread concepts, and when LSU had Jayden Daniels as its quarterback the combination of all of the above was almost too much to take. Things are a bit more traditional in the passing game now that Daniels has moved on, but LSU is still 21st in total offense and 6th in passing offense nationally, although the running game (111th) has struggled. Alabama’s multiple, Air Raid variant has looked a lot less air-based and a lot more ground-centric the past few weeks. The Crimson Tide ranks 37th in total offense, balanced almost perfectly between run (47th) and pass (42nd).
QUARTERBACKS
Garrett Nussmeier is a bit of an enigma; his production has been electric at times, throwing for 2,627 yards and 20 touchdowns. His completion percentage is good but not excellent (62.5%), but the real issue for him has been interceptions, as he’s thrown the ball to the other team 9 times so far. Nussmeier is averaging 1.0 yards per carry (13 for 13), which doesn’t sound like much but given that it includes yardage lost to sacks, it means he’s not a total statue. Still, Nussmeier is nothing like his predecessor and can’t extend drives with his legs efficiently.
Alabama will start Jalen Milroe, who is less a passing threat than Nussmeier but is far more of a running threat. Milroe bounced back nicely against Missouri after putting up two (some would argue three) subpar games in a row. Milroe’s touchdown production rivals Nussmeier’s; Milroe has 13 touchdowns through the air but another 12 on the ground, and has thrown 6 interceptions. LSU has more experienced depth, as the Tigers’ roster includes former Vanderbilt starter A.J. Swann, but Ty Simpson is probably better than either of LSU’s reserves.
It’s a close call and depends heavily on what kind of quarterback you’re looking for, not just how well each one has performed within his respective skillset. Provided the nightmare of the Texas A&M experience was an anomaly, we’ll prioritize the arm here. Advantage: LSU
RUNNING BACKS
Neither team has been lighting it up here, but in LSU’s case it’s really due to injuries to John Emery and Trey Holly. That has left things in the hands of veteran reserves Josh Williams and Kaleb Jackson, along with younger players like Caden Durham. The problem here has been production from a per-carry standpoint; both Williams and Jackson are averaging less than 4 yards per rush, which isn’t acceptable at this level.
Alabama will use the combination of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes again; they are averaging roughly a full 2 yards per carry more than LSU’s backs and have been more productive scorers, with 12 touchdowns combined versus 9 for the LSU trio (including Jackson putting up an 0-fer at the moment). Then there is the inclusion of Jalen Milroe in the running game, which is an element that LSU lacks entirely. Alabama’s performance on the ground against Missouri hinted at a philosophical change that might see Bama put more of an emphasis on the running back position going forward, and if it pays dividends the way it did against Mizzou, no one is going to argue with the choice.
Caden Durham has potential for LSU but Alabama has more as a group, and based on what we saw against Missouri, it might be time for this particular sleeping giant of a position to fully awaken. Advantage: Alabama
WIDE RECEIVERS
Alabama got bad news this week when slot receiver Cole Adams’ season was declared over due to a leg injury. Adams had become a reliable safety valve, and Bama has struggled to develop anyone else with consistency to go along with Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. Bernard and Williams are both top-end talents – Williams leads all receivers on both teams in terms of yardage gained – but now Bama must find someone else at the slot out of a group that includes Kendrick Law, Kobe Prentice, Caleb Odom, Aeryn Hampton, Rico Scott or Emmanuel Henderson Jr. The most likely answer is Law due to what he brings as a blocker in the running game, but Prentice has a knack for getting open.
Tight end has been a reliable outlet for Bama, with C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts, Josh Cuevas and Danny Lewis Jr. all bringing something to the table. LSU, though, probably has the edge here due to the production of starters Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, the latter an Alabama transfer, along with supporting players Zavion Thomas and C.J. Daniels. LSU is also one of the few teams that can boast a better starting tight end (Mason Taylor), and backups Trey’Dez Green and Ka’Morreun Pimpton are quality backups.
Even with Adams, this one leans LSU, but Williams is probably the best pure talent of the bunch. Advantage: LSU
OFFENSIVE LINE
Injuries could possibly flip this category, which would have been a fairly significant LSU edge were both teams able to play all their best players. LSU has two starting linemen out for the game, Tyree Adams and Garrett Dellinger, along with a pair of potential reserves. However, future NFL tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. are just fine and will start on schedule.
LSU ranks 3rd in sacks allowed and 5th in tackles for loss allowed, numbers that lead the SEC in both categories despite playing some fairly stout defenses. With Dellinger not available, though, the interior gets fairly young. Center D.J. Chester is a freshman, and so is Paul Mubenga, one of two players (sophomore Bo Bordelon being the other) that are candidates to take Dellinger’s spot. Senior Miles Frazier will start at the other guard spot.
Alabama is at full strength – finally – with Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett at the tackles, Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts at the guards and Parker Brailsford at center. Geno VanDeMark will likely rotate some at guard with Roberts,while Wilkin Formby might get some snaps at right tackle. Alabama currently ranks 82nd in sacks allowed and 89th in tackles for loss allowed, so the stats don’t match up to LSU, but Bama wins the medical report hands down. We’ll know soon enough whether Dellinger can be adequately replaced. Advantage: LSU
DEFENSE
Both teams utilize a 4-2-5 as a base, with LSU having marginally larger size at its defensive end positions – a facet that allows LSU to play more odd front with a single tackle when needed. LSU ranks 58th in total defense, 48th against the run, 86th in pass defense and 73rd in pass efficiency defense. The Tigers have struggled on third down and are having to account for the loss of key personnel due to injury. It’s been a bad mix.
Alabama ranks 44th in total defense, 65th against the run, 34th against the pass and 13th in pass efficiency defense. It’s not a vintage year for Alabama’s D, but it’s been improving over recent weeks and Alabama is one of the most opportunistic defenses out there.
DEFENSIVE LINE
LSU has recorded an eye-popping 28 sacks as a team, good enough to rank 6th in sacks while also being respectable in negative plays against the run (51st in tackles for loss). Ends Bradyn Swinson and Sai’vion Jones are what make the defensive front work. Swinson has 10.5 tackles for loss and 8 sacks coming in, while Jones is at 5.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks. Each has recorded 4 QB hurries and both players are adept at breaking up passes at the line.
The issue is in the middle, where only one out of the top five interior players were on the roster prior to the start of 2024. Wisconsin transfer Gio Paez has been the anchor of this group, but has only average negative play production and is only averaging a couple of tackles per game, if that. Ahmad Breaux, a true freshman, will help out along with Jay’viar Suggs and Shone Washington. Jalen Lee, the only holdover from the 2023 roster, adds depth. Suggs is probably the bench player to keep the closest eye on.
Alabama will rotate Tim Keenan, Tim Smith, James Smith and Damon Payne Jr. at tackle, while Jah-Marien Latham, Jordan Renaud and L.T. Overton handle defensive end along with help from edge rushers Quandarrius Robinson, Qua Russaw and Keanu Koht. LSU has more explosive ability off the edge, but Alabama is better balanced across the four positions. The loss of Jacobian Guillory for LSU created a significant hole that the Tigers haven’t found a way to replace yet. This one is a close call, basically a push. Advantage: LSU
LINEBACKERS
The loss of Harold Perkins was a massive one for LSU to have to cope with, although Whit Weeks has risen to the challenge. Weeks is the leading tackler on the team currently, has 7 TFL and 2.5 sacks and good stats in pass coverage. He lacks Perkins’ athleticism but is a better fit for the position, as Perkins probably needs to be playing in a defense with more of a 3-4 base. Greg Penn will start next to Weeks and he has put up respectable numbers, too.
West Weeks, Davhon Keys and Xavier Atkins are some of the other options LSU has, although the Tigers lack the kind of switchblade that can fill multiple roles like Alabama has in Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has become an indispensable part of Bama’s linebacker rotation, which includes starters Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell.
This group has started playing better lately after a lull earlier in the year. At this time, it very well may be Whit Weeks that has the best resume, but Bama has better depth and Jefferson, who gives Alabama the ability to switch into a 4-3 alignment, is the wild card. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
It was predicted to be LSU’s biggest weakness, and that prediction has come to pass. The Tigers have struggled to get control of the skies in 2024 and the Tigers rank just 105th in interceptions. Alabama ranks 14th. Ashton Stamps will start at one of the cornerback positions for LSU, while the other could be either Zy Alexander or a true freshman, P.J. Woodland. That spot is probably the weak point for the LSU secondary. J.K. Johnson provides depth outside. Major Burns will start at Star, with Jardin Gilbert probably getting the call at one of the high safety spots. The other one will be filled by either Sage Ryan, Dashawn Spears or Kylin Jackson; top reserve and occasional starter Jordan Allen is listed as out for this game.
Alabama will start Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown at corner, with Malachi Moore and Bray Hubbard at the high safeties and Devonta Smith at Husky. DaShawn Jones and Jaylen Mbakwe provide depth at corner, while Red Morgan and King Mack will be the reserve safeties. Alabama’s secondary has made significant strides lately; Jackson has become one of the league’s better cornerbacks, while the safety group as a whole has stepped up. LSU has somewhat of an experience advantage, and Alabama does have more true freshmen playing key roles, but the fact of the matter is that Alabama has simply been better at its job. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
It is probably driving Brian Kelly crazy at the moment, but other than in kickoff returns, LSU has been subpar at best on special teams this year and often things are a lot worse than that. Placekicker Damian Ramos is above average; all four of his misses have been on longer kicks. But punters Peyton Todd and Blake Ochsendorf have struggled. The Tigers rank 107th in net punting and 118th in punt returns. Return defense is also running at a substandard pace.
For Alabama, James Burnip gives the Crimson Tide one of the best punters in college football, while PK Graham Nicholson is coming off his best game so far at Alabama. Return defense is good, but Alabama needs help on returns; it has rotated several bodies at kickoff returner but has yet to find the combination that it likes, and with Cole Adams now out for the year, Alabama must develop either Ryan Williams or Jaylen Mbakwe at the spot. King Mack might also get a look there.
Despite the uncertainty at punt returner, Alabama leads strongly everywhere else. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in four categories, as does LSU, and this could easily go 6-2 Alabama or even 7-1. The only clear edge LSU seems to have is at wide receiver, and Alabama isn’t terrible there by any stretch. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, it gets complicated. When Alabama’s DL is on the field, what the matchup looks like depends heavily on whether you’re talking about the interior of the line or the corners of it. Alabama isn’t expected to get much against LSU’s offensive tackles, but the middle of the Tiger line is vulnerable.
Going the other way, the problem for Alabama is that the matchup of LSU’s edge DL against Alabama’s offensive tackles, especially on the right side, is a fairly clear edge to LSU, even enough to overcome Bama’s advantage in the interior. Essentially, LSU controls both OL-DL matchups although Alabama will have some chances.
And that’s what makes this one hard to pick. LSU is supremely talented and effective at certain spots, but the spots directly adjacent to those spots are often a black hole. Alabama has more consistency across the board. Alabama also has the advantage of an opportunistic secondary going against a quarterback who can be goaded into throwing picks.
So really, it’s not that much different from a typical Alabama-LSU game. LSU has all the potential – and reliability – of a vintage Ferrari. The Tigers can do great things, but they can also erupt into flames, and do it gloriously.
We took LSU in the preseason look at this game. At this time, we think Alabama has more momentum, but if the game is going to be won in the trenches, we have to give the Tigers the edge there. There’s also the matter of Kalen DeBoer proving he can win on the road in the SEC, and Tiger Stadium may not be the easiest assignment.
LSU 27
Alabama 23
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