Aside from once again struggling to accurately predict a game involving Vanderbilt, the Predictions Dept. was pretty pleased at its Week 10 efforts. The only big miss was South Carolina-Texas A&M, a game we almost put on Upset Special alert but ultimately lost our resolve. This week, every game has some kind of drama or edge to it, a welcome change from recent weeks where there were a handful of dud games on each docket.
Last Week’s Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Season Record: 72-22 (76.6%)
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FLORIDA at TEXAS
Billy Napier has apparently saved his job for another year, as the Gators have toughened defensively and don’t look like the fire drill they resembled earlier in the season. The fact that Florida is doing this with a quarterback position decimated by injury is even more noteworthy. Texas is still trying to figure out its actual place in the conference, especially on the heels of a loss to Georgia and a narrow win over Vanderbilt. Florida probably doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to hold serve with the Longhorns this week, but Texas sometimes gets itself into trouble by not focusing early enough in games against teams that might not have the best defenses, but certainly a defense on the tier just below. Florida is that kind of team. Were the game in Gainesville, it might be time to talk upset, but this one’s in Texas and we like the Longhorns.
Texas 34
Florida 20
ALABAMA at LOUISIANA STATE
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GEORGIA at MISSISSIPPI
Ole Miss has underachieved a bit this year, especially on offense, but the Rebels remain a dangerous team with good overall talent and have the home field for this game. Suddenly, Georgia has a turnover problem, and it’s coming mostly from QB Carson Beck, who was not supposed to be in this position, looking back on preseason predictions. Beck has already thrown 11 interceptions on the year, an especially high number in modern football for a quarterback who was tagged with the “elite” label by many. The Rebel defense has overachieved for much of the year, even as its offense has failed to live up to billing, so Beck will be under the gun this week to get better. The Bulldogs could easily let this one get away from them if the Rebels can force a couple of early turnovers.
Georgia 23
Ole Miss 20
MISSISSIPPI STATE at TENNESSEE
This is the only game that looks like a runaway on paper, but even that is deceptive. Mississippi State’s offense has improved nearly every week, although the Bulldogs looked uninspired for a good portion of its win over UMass last week. Tennessee has issues. The Volunteers are good on defense – great, even – but offensively the Vols don’t display consistency, they shoot themselves in the foot much too often with penalties and lack of execution, and it’s not clear whether UT has the guns for a real shootout. In their favor, though, is the fact that Mississippi State’s defense is several rungs below most SEC contenders. MSU might keep this one close in the first half but we like Tennessee to pull away.
Tennessee 37
Mississippi St. 16
OKLAHOMA at MISSOURI
A Big 8 series of old comes to the SEC as the Sooners travel to Columbia once more. Missouri got knocked well off its game against Alabama two weeks ago, as the Crimson Tide exposed some massive cracks in the Missouri offense. If QB Brady Cook’s health hasn’t improved massively over the off-week, Missouri could be in trouble here. Oklahoma, though, is in the midst of everything from quarterback management issues to questions about its coaching staff and everything in between. Can the Sooners score enough to challenge Missouri, especially on the road? Can the Tigers score enough against a good Oklahoma defense to emerge on top? Are we going to see a final score that would have been more at home in the 1960s Big 8 than the modern-day SEC?
Missouri 24
Oklahoma 16
SOUTH CAROLINA at VANDERBILT
This game is suddenly interesting for reasons that not many expected prior to the start of the 2024 season. A South Carolina-Vanderbilt game was usually notable only in that it went a long way to setting the eventual last-place finisher in the defunct SEC East. Not this year, though. Vanderbilt has been a giant-killer, taking down Alabama and Auburn and coming close to doing the same to Texas. South Carolina narrowly lost to Alabama, but is coming off a dismantling of Texas A&M. We’ve been awful at picking Vanderbilt games correctly this year, so we’re prepared to be wrong again, but the Commodores have more losses to injury at the moment than does South Carolina, and the Gamecock offense is beginning to get some traction to go along with what has been a fast, aggressive defense.
South Carolina 31
Vanderbilt 20
IDLE: Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M
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