The Predictions Dept. might get a bit of a boost this week, as most SEC games are expected to be outside the margins of what would be considered truly close games. The exceptions are Vanderbilt-Auburn and Texas A&M-South Carolina, and depending on which Ole Miss offense and which Arkansas defense shows up, the Razorback-Rebel matchup could become intriguing.
Last Week’s Record: 4-2 (66.7%)
Season Record: 67-20 (77.0%)
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MISSISSIPPI at ARKANSAS
As we said in the opening paragraph, the closeness of this game depends on which Ole Miss offense decides to make the trip, and which version of the Arkansas defense comes out of the tunnel. Ole Miss let two games get away from it this year – an understandable loss to LSU, but in retrospect, a complete gaffe against Kentucky – in a season that could have been program-defining had the Rebels played their cards right. Now Ole Miss has two losses and is teetering on the verge of being out of the College Football Playoff discussion. Arkansas has put up a couple of strong defensive performances this year (Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M) but in recent weeks it seems opponents have begun to figure the Razorbacks out. If Ole Miss can take things up a notch on offense this week, it’s likely the Razorbacks won’t be able to keep up.
Ole Miss 31
Arkansas 17
VANDERBILT at AUBURN
The all-time series is record is a lot closer than it should be – until somewhat recently, Vanderbilt had a winning record against the Tigers – and this year, the Commodores could actually bring it back into a tie with a victory. Three things are working against the Commodores: the game is in Jordan-Hare Stadium, the Commodores are pretty banged up at the moment and Auburn has recommitted to the running game, which is what allowed the Tigers to control their game last week against Kentucky. But Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia knows how to beat Auburn – he did it last year as a member of New Mexico State – and he just doesn’t seem to ever get rattled. This one will come down to Vandy’s ability to shut down Auburn’s newfound running game. Do that, and put the game back in the hands of Auburn’s quarterbacks, and the Commodores have a chance.
Auburn 24
Vanderbilt 21
FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
The Gators are playing a lot better as of late, and if they can somehow figure out a way to upset the Bulldogs, Billy Napier’s job will probably be saved. It might be saved anyway, but a win here would all but guarantee it. Georgia in 2024 has been an exotic sports car – looks great when the wiring is right, a pile of junk otherwise. Georgia is coming off arguably its best performance of the year, a win over Texas on the road where the Bulldogs basically cruised. This one shouldn’t be nearly as hard due to Florida’s comparative lack of explosiveness on offense, but the Gator defense has come around nicely and the Bulldogs won’t be able to completely mail it in. Still, even an average effort on the part of the Bulldogs should result in a Georgia victory.
Georgia 27
Florida 16
KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE
The Volunteer defense is just too good to allow Kentucky to challenge, at least not in the Wildcats’ present state. The passing game has all but vanished in Lexington and Kentucky doesn’t have a running game overwhelming enough to make up the difference. Kentucky can be very good on defense, but it’s hard for a defense to constantly be tasked with holding serve while the offense gives it nothing of supportive value. Tennessee’s offense frequently sputters, too, although the Vols have much better weapons, its defense is a step better and the game is in Knoxville.
Tennessee 30
Kentucky 10
MASSACHUSETTS at MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Bulldogs’ offense has been clicking recently and even though the MSU defense needs work, UMass doesn’t have enough firepower to match State score-for-score. If this game is close in any way, it’s bad news in Starkville. Not much else to say about a game that should have a 40-point margin or more.
Mississippi St. 45
UMass 10
MAINE at OKLAHOMA
Maine is 4-4 at the FCS level, hasn’t played an FBS school yet and the two best FCS programs it played resulted in blowout loses. Oklahoma may be in dire straits right now, scoring 26 total points over the last 3 weeks, but even so, the Sooners shouldn’t be troubled here. The Black Bears have taken down SEC programs before, but those were better Maine teams and this looks like a matchup the Sooners can put on autopilot.
Oklahoma 41
Maine 7
TEXAS A&M at SOUTH CAROLINA
If there’s going to be an upset special this week, here it is. South Carolina can cause problems for teams with offensive shortcomings, as it showed on a road trip to Norman, Okla., two weeks ago. Texas A&M needed to change quarterbacks and probably the entire offensive gameplan midstream to beat LSU last week. The element of surprise is now off the table, and South Carolina’s defense is probably better than LSU’s. The question here is whether the Gamecocks can score enough points. Texas A&M’s defense is also its strongest unit, and South Carolina doesn’t have elite quarterback play, nor does it have enough explosiveness at the other skill positions. Columbia is underrated as a venue and some visiting teams tend to lose their composure there. This one could get interesting.
Texas A&M 21
South Carolina 17
IDLE: Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas
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