In a year when games have been interesting for reasons Alabama fans really would have preferred they not be, here comes a pretty good Missouri Tiger team to town and neither team will have all their weapons available for battle.
Missouri has lost only once this season, but it was a big one – a 41-10 blowout at the hands of Texas A&M, not exactly one of the SEC’s most potent offensive teams. Otherwise, the Tigers have won six games, but against the three quality opponents on that list – Vanderbilt, Boston College and Auburn – margins have been razor-thin, and Missouri has struggled to find consistency on offense.
But Alabama comes into this game in a somewhat fragile state. The Crimson Tide lost to rival Tennessee last week and did it in a way that followed the script of earlier struggles: Alabama played valiantly for a half, but failed to maintain momentum after halftime and was crippled by its own mistakes when things mattered most.
Alabama is as close to being in a must-win situation as it could possibly be, not just for the Crimson Tide’s fading playoff hopes, but for a season that finds the Tide on the brink, emotionally, with plenty of controversy to talk about as the post-Saban transitional year lurches on.
OFFENSE
Missouri’s Eliah Drinkwitz has his roots in the hurry-up, no-huddle offense pioneered by Gus Malzahn and his contemporaries, although Drinkwitz has become far more balanced and almost deliberate in his schemes as his Missouri career has gone along. The Tigers this year have offensive numbers that are almost on top of Alabama’s: 47th in total offense, 53rd in rushing offense and 50th in passing offense. Alabama’s numbers are 46th, 59th and 38th in those same categories. The Tigers will use tempo and misdirection but because of the limitations of the quarterback position, there’s not a lot of zone-read action out of this offense at the moment. Alabama must bounce back from a terrible performance against Tennessee.
QUARTERBACKS
It’s rare to find two teams in this kind of state, this late in the season. Missouri’s Brady Cook is listed as doubtful for this game, and if he plays he will do so while hobbled from what some out of Columbia are calling a severe ankle injury. Even before the injury, Cook was right on the borderline of what we’d consider to be a dual-threat quarterback anyway; he’s athletic, and was accurate (63.1% completion, 136.4 QB rating, 7 TD/1 INT, 1,545 yards), but his running numbers were 48 carries for 117 total yards (2.4 avg.) and 4 touchdowns. If he plays in this game, he’ll probably be effective only if Missouri can keep a clean pocket.
If he can’t go, Drew Pyne will get the call. Pyne has a higher completion percentage on the year (67.4%) but a lower QBR (107.7), hasn’t thrown for a score and isn’t the runner that Cook is. The other issue for Pyne is that he’s just 5’11”, 180. Pyne’s career to this point was made at Notre Dame and Arizona State, and he has decent career passing numbers but his only edge over Alabama’s backups would be in raw experience. There is no third quarterback listed on the Mizzou depth chart; the likely names would be a freshman (Aiden Glover), or a graduate transfer from Southern (J.R. Blood), as third-teamer Sam Horn is out for this game.
Alabama would seem to have a better handle on its situation; Jalen Milroe is healthy, but is also coming off one of his worst career performances against Tennessee after uneven performances against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
There has been growing talk this week that Alabama might give Ty Simpson more than just a fleeting look under center in this game, if for no other reason than to remind Milroe that no positions are guaranteed. Simpson doesn’t have Pyne’s experience, but he’s got quite a bit more headroom, talent-wise.
Milroe can be in a different stratosphere when he’s playing well, which Alabama needs in a bad way right now. Even if Cook were completely healthy, he can’t match Milroe when Milroe is playing well. The question is, which Milroe will show up? Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Injuries have apparently claimed both teams’ starters. Nate Noel is listed as doubtful on the most recent injury report but was reportedly ruled out altogether earlier in the week. Noel has averaged 5.9 yards per carry in 2024 but had only scored twice; his backup, who is now the starter (Marcus Carroll) has averaged a yard less per carry but has scored 6 times. Noel was a scatback-type runner, 5’8” and 180, while Carroll is more than thirty pounds heavier on the same frame.
With Noel out, the backups will be younger players, Jamal Roberts and Tavorus Jones, who have fewer than 20 carries each on the season. Jones is about Noel’s size while Roberts is a bigger back.
Alabama won’t know whether Jam Miller will be available until close to game time. He appeared to hurt a foot or ankle against Tennessee and didn’t return once the injury happened. He has been significantly more effective than Justice Haynes for most of 2024. If Miller can’t go, Haynes will start, although the backup situation is unclear. Daniel Hill remains out, and Richard Young has been MIA for weeks, so either Young steps back into the picture or Alabama will have to drop down to freshman scatback Kevin Riley, or walk-on J.R. Gardner.
This category is like comparing M*A*S*H units at the moment. Alabama squeaks this one out mostly on Haynes’ potential, but it’s not like either team likes its current state of affairs. Advantage: Alabama
WIDE RECEIVERS
You can’t talk about Missouri without talking about Luther Burden, a player Nick Saban recruited heavily and wanted badly. Burden opted to stay with his home-state school, and he’s become one of the most dangerous players in the SEC out of the slot. He’s also hurt, however, but regardless of that fact is expected to play in this game. Burden has caught 37 passes for 447 yards (12.1 avg.) and 4 touchdowns in 2024, the lower output due to his nagging injuries plus Missouri’s quarterback situation. Theo Wease Jr. is actually the team’s leading receiver, with 35 catches for 463 yards (13.2 avg.) and 1 TD. Missouri will probably be without its third-best receiver, Mookie Cooper (12 catches, 235 yards, 19.6 avg. 0 TD), listed as doubtful for this game. That will put Marquis Johnson (13 catches, 123 yards, 9.5 avg., 0 TD) on the spot, but Johnson is also recovering from an injury. No other wideout has double-digit catches.
Joshua Manning and Mekhi Miller are next in line. Missouri also has injury issues at tight end, where Brett Norfleet, one of the best tight ends in the conference, is listed as questionable. If he can’t go, Jordon Harris and Tyler Stephens will split the position; all three tight ends have been used as receivers, as have Missouri’s stable of running backs, but the quality comes into question at some point.
Alabama has its own issues. Ryan Williams rivals Burden for what each brings to the table, and Alabama has an impressive second option in Germie Bernard. After that, Alabama has struggled to get consistent productivity. Kendrick Law is probably the third starter at wideout, but he can’t have a repeat of his late-game meltdown against Tennessee. Kobe Prentice still hasn’t returned to the rotation despite being off the injury sheet two weeks in a row. Cole Adams has probably become the most reliable third option. Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and Caleb Odom add depth, but impacts have been few and far between from them.
Alabama also needs to get the tight end group re-engaged with the full offense. C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts, Josh Cuevas and Danny Lewis Jr. all have the ability but need more targets. This category, like the first two, is very close and highly dependent on who actually plays. We’ll give Missouri the edge right now assuming Burden is healthy. Advantage: Missouri
OFFENSIVE LINE
Neither team has done a fabulous job protecting the quarterback, and that will impact Missouri more in this game if Cook is trying to give it a go at QB. Missouri ranks 87th in sacks allowed, compared to 78th for Alabama, but the Tigers have done a better job at keeping the running backs clean.
Missouri ranks 42nd in tackles for loss allowed compared to 92nd for Alabama. Again, however, injuries could affect the Tigers. Left guard Cayden Green is listed as questionable for this game, and if he’s out, a freshman, Logan Reichart, would probably end up getting his first start. Marcus Bryant and Armand Membou will start at the tackles, Cam’Ron Johnson at right guard and Connor Tollison at center.
Alabama will start Parker Brailsford at center, with Jaeden Roberts and Tyler Booker at the guards and Elijah Pritchett and Kadyn Proctor at the tackles. Geno VanDeMark has been rotating a lot lately with Roberts at right guard, while Wilkin Formby got back to the field against Tennessee and did well.
Alabama has more potential due to its talent, but neither team is exactly setting the world on fire. We’ll take Alabama due to marginally better health. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
These teams will be familiar with one another, as Corey Batoon, Missouri’s defensive coordinator, was Kane Wommack’s defensive coordinator at South Alabama. By alignment, Missouri isn’t in a pure 4-2-5 all the time, as its front has more three-man elements and shades more in line with a 3-4 over/under. Still, it’s the same theory: Create an opportunistic defense out of a one-gap DL base that might give up some big plays but is also fluent in the takeaway game. Missouri ranks 9th in total defense and also 9th in raw pass defense, but ranks 41st in pass efficiency defense and 33rd in run defense. Big plays will be available here. Alabama’s 4-2-5 Swarm ranks 59th in total defense, 63rd in rush defense, 57th in raw pass defense but a much better 25th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama is 41st in scoring defense while Missouri is 10th.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Missouri’s defensive ends are more balanced in regard to size and weight; Zion Young and Johnny Walker Jr. will start ahead of Eddie Kelly Jr. and, most likely, Jahkai Lang, as Joe Moore is out for this game. Missouri ranks 49th in sacks and 54th in tackles for loss; the starting ends have decent production but not great, but Lang has shown promise as an edge rusher. At tackle, Kristian Williams and Chris McClellan will start; McClellan is by far the better of those two options and is Missouri’s best defender overall, more than likely.
Alabama will rotate Tim Keenan, Tim Smith, James Smith and Damon Payne Jr. at tackle, with Jah-Marien Latham and L.T. Overton splitting the Bandit end spot. Quandarrius Robinson, Qua Russaw and Keanu Koht handle the Wolf position. Bama is probably better off the edge, especially given Overton’s ability to pressure quarterbacks, but Missouri is better inside. Alabama ranks 35th in sacks and is tied with Missouri at 54th in tackles for loss. The question is whether Overton and the Wolf backers can even things out with McClellan. It’s another close one. Advantage: Missouri
LINEBACKERS
Alabama’s Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell continue to display the potential to have special ability, but Alabama’s best inside linebacker this year has probably been package LB Justin Jefferson. Together, the three of them can be formidable when the defensive line is holding its own against the opposing offensive line, but Alabama needs to show more consistency. Missouri will also rotate three linebackers – Chuck Hicks, Triston Newson and Corey Flagg – with Flagg being probably the best option. He leads the team in tackles despite logging only one start.
Both teams will be missing a backup; Alabama’s Cayden Jones, who plays almost exclusively on special teams, is out, but Missouri will be without South Alabama transfer Khalil Jacobs, who Alabama recruited over the offseason. Missouri probably has been more consistent, but Alabama has more big-play ability across the board, especially behind the line of scrimmage. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Who’s going to play safety for these two teams? Alabama may be without three safeties, while Missouri has four safeties listed as questionable. The Tigers will start Toriano Pride Jr. and Dreyden Norwood at corner. Marvin Burks will almost certainly be one of the safeties, but the other regular starters are Daylan Carnell at nickel and Joseph Charleston, who are both members of the walking wounded. If Charleston can’t go, his backup, Tre’Vez Johnson, is also on the injured list, so it might fall back to true freshman Trajen Greco, or junior Caleb Flagg. Carnell’s backup, Sidney Williams, is the fourth questionable safety, so Phillip Roche would have to take the spot.
For Alabama, Domani Jackson will start at one of the corners, with either Zabien Brown or Jaylen Mbakwe at the other. Malachi Moore will start at one of the safety positions along with new starter Bray Hubbard, who is replacing Keon Sabb, likely out for the remainder of the year. Hubbard did well late against Tennessee but the vast majority of his career playing time has come against teams in blowouts. The nickel safety position is a total mystery.
Devonta Smith’s name isn’t on the injury report, but he left the Tennessee game and couldn’t return, and his injury history suggests his availability might be in question. Rydarrius Morgan would be the next man up, but he appeared to hurt a hamstring against Tennessee and is labeled as probable. If Morgan can’t go, or even if he can and needs to be spelled, it’s not clear who will do it. Reserve corner DaShawn Jones has the ability to do so, with the other choice being King Mack, who struggled against Tennessee when forced into the game.
If Jones ends up playing safety, Zavier Mincey will have to be one of the primary corners in this game, as Zabien Brown isn’t 100 percent at the moment himself. Other names you might see in this game include Kam Howard and Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. at safety, Jahlil Hurley at corner, or walk-ons Alijah May (CB) and Kolby Peavy (S).
This is a mess. We’re giving it to Missouri based just off the stats, which is a bad way to make a call here, but is really the only option we have. Advantage: Missouri
SPECIAL TEAMS
There has been some concern about PK Graham Nicholson this week after he missed his second long field goal of the year against Tennessee, but with just 4 attempts on the season – and knowing that Nicholson’s effective range doesn’t go far beyond 50 yards or so anyway – we’re going to avoid panicking about something that probably isn’t broken. Punter James Burnip continues to boom everything he hits, and Alabama has talented options on both returns and return coverage.
For Missouri, Blake Craig has some of the weirdest kicking stats in college football this year. He’s missed 7 kicks total, but he’s 4-for-6 from beyond 50 yards … and 1-for-5 from 40-49 yards. Big leg, not really sure where it’s going. Punter Luke Bauer is average.
Missouri doesn’t do anything special in the return game, and doesn’t cover kickoffs especially well, but has been solid in punt coverage. Burnip’s the best of the kickers for either team and Alabama holds a clear edge in the return game. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in five categories, Missouri in three. Several are close calls, however, including the entire offensive side of the ledger. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines have the edge over their opponents’ offensive lines.
There’s a reason Alabama is still a double-digit betting favorite for this game, because for all the drama in Tuscaloosa, the Alabama roster is still superior. Then add in the questionable nature of Missouri’s starting offensive backfield and it pushes the needle even further in Alabama’s direction.
The key, of course, is how well Alabama has managed to bounce back mentally and emotionally since last Saturday. Alabama wasn’t in a great headspace at the end of the Tennessee game, and had similar breakdowns against Vanderbilt two weeks prior. The Crimson Tide needs to get off the roller coaster and get back to consistent preparation and mental fitness in the run-up to games like this. Missouri is more than good enough to beat Alabama if the Crimson Tide gives the Tigers the chance.
If the Missouri injury report is all smoke and mirrors, Alabama still should win, but it’s going to be close, and the notion of Missouri’s receiver corps running free against a banged-up Bama secondary doesn’t excite anyone in Tuscaloosa. If Missouri is forced to its second team in as many places as the injury report suggests, it could get out of hand for the Tigers.
Alabama 31
Missouri 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN