The third Saturday in October has often given the college football world a lot to talk about.
For the past 17 years, it’s mostly been about one-sided dominance thanks to Nick Saban and his seemingly innate ability to control the outcome of games in this series either by superior talent and coaching, or just sheer will. For 2024, though, the conversation is about identity – specifically, what are the identities of the two teams playing in this game?
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Alabama opened the season clicking on all cylinders offensively, and with the defense pitching a shutout at the same time. As the weeks have gone along, the offense has (mostly) continued to put up good results, but the defense has been coming unwound like a watch spring in the hands of a curious 10-year-old. Tennessee, on the other hand, opened up with three fantastic offensive performances, then watched the door slam shut on its offense while at the same time, the defense has risen to become one of the best in the SEC, if not the best.
As such, coming into this game, we’re not sure what “normal” really means to either team. Is Tennessee a complete team that is just stuck in a temporary offensive rut, or does it lack the firepower of other recent Volunteer teams? Does Alabama have the ability to control a game with its offense and a defense that has proven adept at causing turnovers, or is it a team held hostage by a defense that can’t get off the field and gives up too many long drives?
Figuring out where each team stands relative to the other one will be the determining factor in who wins, because there is no clear favorite otherwise.
OFFENSE
Tennessee ranks 9th in total offense, mostly off the strength of its opening trio of games that saw the Vols score 69. 51 and 71 points, respectively. Tennessee ranks 7th in rushing offense but just 61st in passing offense; scoring offense ranks 9th. Tennessee operates from a wide-open spread offense that has a lot of roots in the Air Raid. Alabama counters with its own Air Raid derivative that ranks 35th in total offense, 35th in passing offense and 51st in rushing offense.
QUARTERBACKS
At the beginning of the year, it seemed like Tennessee had actually upgraded when it sent Joe Milton off to the pros and replaced him with dual-threat quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but he has cooled off a bit since the team’s hot start. Iamaleava nevertheless has racked up a healthy yardage total – 1,219 yards passing on 65.7% completion, with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, plus another 135 yards on the ground – but Tennessee has struggled to convert drives to points over the past month as the schedule has grown more difficult. Tennessee also has one of the lowest first-half outputs in the SEC.
Iamaleava also has been good as a runner, but not necessarily the difference-maker with his legs that fans were hoping for. The backup is UCF transfer Gaston Moore, and while he has more experience in the role than does Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Simpson is the better quarterback by a significant gap. Of far greater importance, of course, is how Jalen Milroe compares to Iamaleava as the starter.
Milroe had just an average day against South Carolina last week, but for the season has been consistently effective, throwing for 1,483 yards, 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while completing 72.7% of his passes. He’s also Bama’s second-leading runner with 319 yards and 11 touchdowns on 77 carries (4.1 avg.). Both quarterbacks are top-shelf athletes with good arms, but Milroe has the clear edge in experience as a starter and has led multiple comebacks. In this series, that probably means quite a bit in the final analysis. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
After a third straight week struggling to get its running game going, Alabama has a trend on its hands and not an anomaly. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes have talent to burn, but haven’t been able to really take over a game in weeks. Haynes in particular has struggled to produce in anything besides short-yardage situations.
Alabama will also be without reserve Daniel Hill for this game, and no one is quite sure what Richard Young’s health status is at the moment. Tennessee will probably be without a reserve, too, as Cameron Seldon is listed as questionable. But Tennessee is getting more than enough performance thus far from Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop. Sampson has already run for 699 yards (more than Alabama’s Miller and Haynes combined) and 15 touchdowns, while Bishop has added 330 yards and 3 scores of his own, and is averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
It’s clear Tennessee intends to lean hard on this tandem in this game, and with Alabama’s struggles with linebacker run fits over the past month, it’s probably a good strategy. Miller and Haynes are both due for a breakout game, and the talent is there to have one, but Sampson is the SEC’s top running back at the moment. Advantage: Tennessee
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tennessee came into 2024 not knowing exactly what its wideout rotation would look like, and Bru McCoy was the player most thought would step up. While McCoy has not had a bad season – 14 catches, 209 yards, 14.9 avg. – he has yet to catch a touchdown pass and is just the team’s fourth-leading receiver. Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton Jr. has been the breakout star; while he has caught only 9 passes, they’ve gone for a total of 295 yards (32.8 avg.) and 3 touchdowns. Squirrel White returns as a capable slot receiver, and Chris Brazzell offers depth along with Chas Nimrod.
The starting tight end will be a familiar name – Alabama transfer Miles Kitselman, who has just 6 catches so far, but 2 of them have gone for scores. He’s also a capable blocker.
Alabama will counter with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard as the two primary receivers, and will probably get back both Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law for this game. Law’s return is of special importance due to his ability to block for running backs. Bama’s tight end group is significantly deeper than Tennessee’s, with C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts and Josh Cuevas each playing key roles in both the running and passing games. Danny Lewis Jr. provides further depth there, and Cole Adams and Emmanuel Henderson will bolster the receiver group.
Tennessee has a clear advantage in one place: size at receiver, as McCoy, Thornton and Brazzell are all 6’3” or taller. However, Bama’s advantage at tight end, plus greater depth at receiver and the presence of Williams, who is a true star already even though just a freshman, gives Alabama a bit of an edge. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Statistically, Alabama holds the slimmest of edges here, as Bama has been slightly better at protecting the quarterback (71st in sacks allowed vs. 82nd for Tennessee), while both teams rank just below average in tackles for loss allowed. Alabama is a bit healthier, although Tennessee LT Lance Heard is slated to return for this game., sending Dayne Davis back to the bench. Cooper Mays will start at center, with Andrej Karic and Javontez Spraggins at the guards and John Campbell at right tackle. Only Heard is not a senior, yet Davis, his backup, is one.
Alabama will start Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett at the tackle spots, with Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts at the guards and Parker Brailsford at center. Alabama has been rotating Geno VanDeMark with Roberts now for a couple of weeks, and this will likely continue, given that Roberts is not 100 percent. This is a close call, but given that Heard is not fully healthy at the most key position on the line, left tackle, we will take Bama in what is almost a toss-up. Advantage: Alabama
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DEFENSE
Tennessee’s base fluctuates between even and odd fronts but mostly functions like a 4-2-5 with one end spot light enough to flex back into a linebacker role, much the same as Alabama uses its Wolf position. The Volunteers rank 2nd nationally in total defense, 5th in rushing defense, 19th in pass defense and 31st in pass efficiency defense. Alabama ranks 53rd in total defense, 54th against the run, 63rd against the pass and 27th in pass efficiency defense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Like the offensive line, the Tennessee defensive line is a veteran unit, made up of three seniors – DE Dominic Bailey and tackles Omari Thomas and Bryson Eason – and a junior, LEO DE/LB James Pearce Jr. Tennessee ranks 7th in tackles for loss from this unit, but has been surprisingly average in recording sacks (62nd). Omarr Norman-Lott and Elijah Simmons provide depth inside, while Tyre West and Joshua Josephs will back up the defensive end spots.
Alabama will use a main rotation of Tim Keenan, Tim Smith, James Smith and Damon Payne Jr. at its defensive tackle spots, while Jah-Marien Latham, L.T. Overton and Jordan Renaud split the Bandit end position and Quandarrius Robinson, Keanu Koht and Qua Russaw will rotate at Wolf end. Edric Hill provides additional depth inside. Alabama ranks 36th in sacks but just 45th in tackles for loss, which could be an issue if Tennessee runs the ball as often as expected.
Bama has struggled in recent years to shut down Tennessee’s ends, although the current iteration of the Vol front looks a bit more human than in past seasons. The consistency the Volunteers have shown in SEC play is what really wins the day here. Advantage: Tennessee
LINEBACKERS
Tennessee will be without its leading tackler, MLB Keenan Pili, leaving Jeremiah Telander as the starter at the position. Arion Carter will start at weakside backer. Carter and Telander both have shown flashes in pass defense, but none of the three main linebackers have recorded a sack in 2024. Carter and Telander are a bit on the smaller side for SEC inside linebackers, but they’re big enough to get the job done.
The question here for Alabama is whether Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell can get back to playing aggressively and crashing the hole to stop an opponent’s running game. The last two weeks have been filled with issues for a duo that was expected to be the conference’s best inside linebacker tandem, but haven’t lived up to expectations yet. Alabama will also be without reserve ILB and special teams fixture Cayden Jones. Justin Jefferson will play a significant amount, especially if Alabama goes to a 4-3 alignment as it did several times against South Carolina.
If this is about potential and athleticism, Alabama would get the nod, but we’ve got to see better play from the Tide side before taking them again. Tennessee gets this based on performance, even without Pili. Advantage: Tennessee
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Given how many players Tennessee lost to graduation and transfer out of this unit, it’s a minor miracle how well the Volunteers have been able to bounce back. Oregon State transfer Jermod McCoy is the only inbound transfer to get a spot in the starting group, so this is mostly a homegrown solution to the talent exodus of the past offseason. Rickey Gibson III will start at cornerback opposite McCoy, while Will Brooks and Andre Turrentine will start at safety and Christian Harrison at Star. If Tennessee has a weakness, it has been a lack of forced turnovers – the Volunteers have intercepted only 3 passes, and one of those came from a linebacker – but they cover well and don’t give up a lot of big plays.
For Alabama, Domani Jackson is expected to start at cornerback opposite Zabien Brown, but Jackson was knocked out of the South Carolina game for awhile with what appeared to be a hip injury, so look for more of DaShawn Jones, Jaylen Mbakwe and perhaps even Zavier Mincey in the rotation this week. Safety Keon Sabb is also hurting, but Alabama has less of a solution if he can’t go, or has to be spelled. Malachi Moore and Devonta Smith will start alongside Sabb at safety, with probably Red Morgan or Bray Hubbard getting the call should Sabb have to sit. Alabama has been more aggressive in the backend of the defense but also tends to make more mistakes. Advantage: Tennessee
SPECIAL TEAMS
Max Gilbert has been a reliable kicker for Tennessee in 2024, missing just 1 of 12 attempts, that one coming from outside 50 yards. Net punting hasn’t been so good – Tennessee ranks 74th there – but the Vols excel in punt and kickoff returns. Tennessee ranks 3rd in kickoff return defense but just 105th in punt return defense.
For Alabama, James Burnip continues to be one of the most effective punters in the country, and Graham Nicholson continues to wait in the wings at placekicker for more opportunities, as he’s only been called on twice all year. Alabama’s return defense is among the best in the country, but returns have been mediocre. For the most part, both teams have far more positives than negatives in this category, but we like Bama’s kickers just a bit more. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in four categories, Tennessee in four categories. Many are close, however – offensive line, linebacker, special teams and perhaps defensive back and wide receiver as well. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, Tennessee’s DL holds an edge over Alabama’s OL, while the Alabama DL/Tennessee OL matchup looks like a push at best from the Bama perspective.
If all of the above holds accurate, Tennessee should win the game by a small margin as the home team in a battle of fairly evenly-matched rosters. But therein lies the problem: We’re not really sure yet what Tennessee is, exactly, or what Alabama is, either. Both teams are searching for answers to problems that cost them games against Vanderbilt (for Alabama) and Arkansas (for Tennessee), neither of which was a game prognosticators expected either team to lose before the season started.
For now, we have to trust the analysis, because it’s all we really have to go on. We think Tennessee will be able to leverage just enough of its run game superiority to keep Bama’s defense on the field, which has been a recurring issue for the Crimson Tide. When Alabama has the ball, we’re not sure how the Crimson Tide will respond to facing probably the best defense it’s seen this season. If Alabama does find a way to pull off the win, however, it could be the springboard that this program needs to get back in the middle of the conference championship race.
Tennessee 27
Alabama 24
Unofficial Depth Chart for Alabama @ Tennessee
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