South Carolina preview: Vandy loss suddenly has Bama fans nervous, but what of the Gamecocks?

The first game after a major upset loss is never comfortable, as Kalen DeBoer surely found out very early in the week when the conversation turned from what went wrong against Vanderbilt to how can Alabama avoid making the same mistakes against the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Of Bama’s remaining schedule, South Carolina may be the “easiest” game outside of FCS Mercer, but the Gamecocks whipped a no-less-than-decent Kentucky team 31-6 in Week 2 and nearly beat LSU in the game that followed. Then again, South Carolina was shut down, 27-3, by Ole Miss last week, and barely beat Old Dominion in the season opener.

Shane Beamer has the Gamecocks on, generally, the right track – we think. But even the most ardent Gamecock fan will admit the 2024 South Carolina team is anything but a complete unit at this point. Quarterback play has been average at best, there isn’t a lot of star power at the skill positions and there are questions whether the Gamecock defense on the whole is somewhat of a mirage. This was a bad defensive team for much of 2023, and after switching back and forth between a 3- and 4-man front from the tail end of 2023 through 2024, South Carolina could get overwhelmed against an offense like Alabama’s. But until Alabama’s defense shows whether it can get up off the mat after last week’s disastrous performance, every game is going to be a show-me affair.

OFFENSE

While South Carolina’s offense is more traditional in its build than Vanderbilt’s was, Alabama will still have to deal with some of the same basic threats: a mobile quarterback, a running back that can get downhill and an improving offensive line. However, the Gamecocks have struggled to mount an effective passing attack behind starter LaNorris Sellers. The Gamecocks rank 93^rd in total offense, 43^rd in rushing offense and 110^th in passing offense. There will be designed running plays to the quarterback and some RPO action, but South Carolina would have had to install an almost new offense in a week’s time to approximate what Vandy ran last week. Alabama’s offense was not the problem against the Commodores; the Crimson Tide ranks 16^th in total offense, 35^th in rushing offense and 30^th in passing offense out of its hybrid Air Raid/power build.

QUARTERBACKS
LaNorris Sellers is a freshman, and for a good bit of the season has played like one. He’s completing only 57.6% of his passes, which in the modern game is an uninspiring number to say the least. He’s thrown for only 555 yards on the year, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for a QB rating of 113.2, but he has also been hurt for part of that time. His primary weapon is probably his running ability; Sellers is the team’s second-leading rusher with 200 yards on 55 carries (3.6 avg.) and 3 touchdowns. Alabama saw enough of a mobile quarterback last week to last a lifetime, but it is what it is. Curiously enough, South Carolina’s backup, senior Robbie Ashford, an Auburn transfer, has been far more effective in limited work, but Bama is expecting to get a full dose of Sellers in this game. Ashford has thrown for more than half Sellers’ yardage in less than a third of the attempts, and has a QB rating of 189.0. Alabama will counter with Jalen Milroe, who is completing nearly three-fourths of his pass attempts, has 1,274 yards and 11 touchdowns already, and has run for 283 yards on 59 carries (4.8 avg.), with 9 touchdowns on the ground. Ty Simpson has far less experience than Ashford as a backup, but a much better arm. This one’s not particularly close, and indeed is an even wider spread than the edge Alabama had on paper last week against the Commodores. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, an Arkansas transfer, gives South Carolina the kind of legitimate running threat that it had lacked for the most part in recent years. Sanders has the beef (6’0”, 230 pounds) and skillset to be a featured back, and he’s put up decent-but-not-great numbers so far: 65 carries, 315 yards, 4.8 avg., 4 TD. Still, his presence means that Alabama has to improve over last week, where it allowed Vandy’s Sedrick Alexander to be a key part of the offense, even if it did hold Alexander to 3.2 yards per carry. The backups are a significant notch below Sanders in ability; North Texas transfer Oscar Adaway is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and Juju McDowell, a senior running third-team, hasn’t given the Gamecocks any punch and will likely play very little. Alabama’s Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are interchangeable, although Miller is coming off a much stronger game last week than is Haynes. Per-carry production is almost twice what it is for South Carolina, and Milroe has an edge as a runner over Sellers from the quarterback position. If South Carolina uses Ashford, however, it’s probably a push in that category. Still, Alabama’s backs are far more dynamic, and are also threats in the passing game, whereas South Carolina’s backs seem limited in that regard – Sanders leads all backs with just 4 catches. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
A lot of this will come down to the health of Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law for Alabama, especially Law, as their absence for all or part of the Vanderbilt game was keenly felt. Law is probably in for Alabama but it wouldn’t surprise us to see Prentice not back in the mix just yet. Even without them, the starting trio – which will be Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams, plus probably either Emmanuel Henderson Jr. or Cole Adams – is a big step up and above what South Carolina brings to the table. Without Law or Prentice, Bama’s backups will include Caleb Odom and probably a true freshman, Aeryn Hampton or Rico Scott, that hasn’t played much yet. The tight end trio of C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts and Josh Cuevas was one of the few bright spots against Vandy and has been one all year. South Carolina will start true freshman Mazeo Bennett Jr. in the slot, and he’s the most dangerous receiver the Gamecocks have. He lacks the top-end explosiveness of a Ryan Williams, but 14 catches for 200 yards (14.3 avg.) and 2 touchdowns is quality output. The problem is, he’s the only wideout with a touchdown catch this year for USC (tight ends and backs have the rest) and there’s not a clear playmaker outside of him other than maybe Vandrevius Jacobs, a Florida State transfer who redshirted at FSU last year. The other starter will be either Nyck Harbor or Gage Larvadain, as Jared Brown is listed as out. Whenever Harbor is in the game, it will be interesting to see whether Alabama can match up to his size: 6’5” and 235 pounds as a wideout. Like Vanderbilt last week, Alabama will have to watch out for the tight ends, specifically Joshua Simon, Michael Smith and Brady Hunt. The Gamecocks will use two tight ends on a significant number of downs. The two top players here are Bama’s Bernard and Williams, but the Gamecocks probably have a smidge more depth. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
This has been a problem spot for South Carolina for several seasons, and while it seems to be on its way to being better in 2024, this is still a work in progress. True freshman Josiah Thompson will start at left tackle. A transfer from FAU, Kamaar Bell, will start next to him at left guard. A transfer from North Carolina Central, Torricelli Simpkins III, will start at right guard. Right tackle Cason Henry is just a sophomore; redshirt senior center Vershon Lee must feel like a relic of an earlier time. The Gamecocks are dead last in the conference and the country in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed (133^rd in both). Alabama’s rankings of 58^th and 54^th in those two categories makes the Crimson Tide look like the vaunted Hogs of NFL Washington fame. Parker Brailsford will start at center, with Jaeden Roberts and Tyler Booker at the guards and Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett at tackle. Roberts will probably be spelled a bit by Geno VanDeMark, as Roberts is dealing with a couple of nagging injuries. Wilkin Formby will be the extra tackle. Alabama was sort of in South Carolina’s shoes a bit last year, but has made giant strides forward in 2024. It’s going to take a while for the Gamecocks to do the same, especially at these talent levels. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Both teams base out of a 4-2-5, but South Carolina has shown more willingness to employ odd fronts and even true 3-3-5 alignments when necessary. The Gamecocks have improved to a ranking of 22^nd in total defense in 2024, 32^nd against the run, 34^th in raw pass defense and 11^th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama is coming off a Vanderbilt performance where the stats told one story, especially in the run-game defense, but the scoreboard and the game flow told a completely different one. Alabama ranks 50^th in total defense, 54^th in rushing defense, 61^st in raw pass defense but 18^th in pass efficiency defense. South Carolina has done a good job of covering up talent issues in 2024; Alabama has talent to burn but the switch to a new defensive scheme was a factor in the Vanderbilt loss. It will be difficult to evaluate just where these two teams stand against each other on this side of the ball.

DEFENSIVE LINE
South Carolina has one of the top freshman linemen in the country in Dylan Stewart, and one of the most impactful DE transfers in former Georgia Tech player Kyle Kennard. The two of them have combined for 9 sacks so far this year and are one of the big reasons the Gamecocks have been so good against the pass despite having a questionable secondary. Gilber Edmond and Bryan Thomas Jr. provide depth. South Carolina ranks 14^th in sacks and 24^th in tackles for loss. Inside, Alex Huntley, T.J. Sanders and Tonka Hemingway are the names to watch, with Sanders leading the charge. He’s the team’s third-leading tackler with 22 total stops, a rarity for an interior lineman. Alabama finds itself down a man inside; Jehiem Oatis became the first Alabama player to hit the portal during the 2024 season, which leaves Tim Smith and Tim Keenan starting ahead of James Smith and Damon Payne Jr. in what is now a fairly clear four-man rotation. Oatis’ stats had plummeted over the last two years as he’d lost weight and tried to become more versatile; however, Alabama was hoping he would continue to improve and be a factor over the course of this season. With Oatis gone, it’s possible that Edric Hill takes his place as a fifth rotational option, but more likely the snap count will just go up for the other four. Quandarrius Robinson was one of the few Tide defenders to have a good showing against Vanderbilt. He’ll start at the Wolf spot ahead of Qua Russaw and Keanu Koht, although all three will play. Alabama needs to get better production from the combination of Jah-Marien Latham and L.T. Overton at Bandit DE; the two started the year strongly but have faded a bit over the last couple of weeks. Alabama has the raw talent edge here, but South Carolina has been far more productive and is more comfortable in its scheme. Advantage: South Carolina

LINEBACKERS
If we could be confident that the Vanderbilt game was an outlier, we’d be comfortable picking Alabama here due to the veteran presence and ability of Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell. But both players are coming off a performance last week that could justifiably be called the worst of their careers. Justin Jefferson should be OK to return to full action this week as their top backup; without him, Lawson and Campbell appeared to wear down last week from the high snap counts. For South Carolina, they too lost a player to transfer this week when Bangally Kamara told coaches of his intent to transfer and was removed from the roster. Kamara hadn’t started a game, but was a key backup. Debo Williams, Bam Martin-Scott and Demetrius Knight Jr. are the three principal linebackers on this team, and will be on the field together when the Gamecocks decide to offer a 3-3-5 look. This group has done a good job of clogging up running lanes and making tackles in the backfield, although they’ve been less effective against the pass. There’s also now the question of finding a trusted backup with Kamara gone, especially if USC continues to employ three-LB looks. If Alabama is more like its Vanderbilt performance than it is its earlier outings, South Carolina would take this category. We’re going to bet on Vanderbilt being a false signal, to a degree. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Alabama’s secondary did not play well against Vanderbilt although it was more a question of stopping the tight end in the passing game, a task which brought the linebackers into the discussion. For the most part, Alabama’s secondary has either met or gently exceeded preseason expectations up to this point, especially at cornerback. Zabien Brown and Domani Jackson will start outside, with DaShawn Jones and Jaylen Mbakwe backing them up. At safety, Malachi Moore and Keon Sabb will start at the high safety spots (unless there is disciplinary action coming in Moore’s case, based on conduct at the end of the Vanderbilt loss), with Devonta Smith ahead of Red Morgan at the nickel spot. For South Carolina, O’Donnell Fortune and Judge Collier will start at the corners, with D.Q. Smith and Nick Emmanwori at the safeties and Jalon Kilgore at nickel. South Carolina outranks Alabama in passes intercepted, although it’s close; where the Gamecocks pull ahead in this one is probably in the consistency of the corners to support the run, plus a general overall edge in experience on the Carolina side. Alabama is getting better and may very well avoid some of the doomsday projections for its pass defense, but South Carolina has cleaned up its act after a rough 2023 and the secondary has become one of the leading indicators of improvement. Advantage: South Carolina

SPECIAL TEAMS
Gamecock PK Alex Herrera has a good leg but not a great one, and accuracy can get a bit scattershot at longer distances. Alabama continues to avoid having to kick field goals, so Graham Nicholson remains untested even though his prior-year body of work was deemed tops in the country in 2023. South Carolina has been below-average-to-poor in the return game this year but covers kicks well. Net punting is in good shape (16^th) with Kai Kroeger, although that is outclassed by Alabama’s James Burnip, who is most responsible for a ranking of 7^th for Alabama. Alabama has slim edges in returns and punt return coverage, although the Gamecocks are superior in covering kickoffs. This one is really a push when you get down to it, but we don’t give pushes in our previews, so we have to pick a winner. Take the career resumes of Nicholson and Burnip. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, South Carolina in two, but both linebacker and special teams could easily flip to the Gamecocks (as could defensive back to Alabama). In regard to OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama controls both, although the edge is slim in the matchup of its offensive line to the much-improved Gamecock defensive line.

The fact of the matter is that Alabama fans aren’t just looking for a win this week; they’re looking for a comfortable win and evidence of improvement, both from the team and the defensive staff. The Vanderbilt loss wasn’t notable necessarily because it came against Vanderbilt, it was notable in the way Alabama failed to answer the bell and failed to adjust to threats. If Alabama puts forth a repeat of last week’s performance against South Carolina, it’s not unreasonable to expect a second consecutive upset.

Alabama’s biggest advantage will come when its offense is on the field. The Gamecocks haven’t had to cover anyone like Ryan Williams or play against a quarterback like Jalen Milroe. In last week’s loss to Ole Miss, Rebel QB Jaxson Dart carved up the Gamecocks for 285 yards on just 14 completions. Even with the Rebel running game stagnant for most of the day, the Gamecocks suffered from matchup disadvantages against the more talented Ole Miss team.

For that reason – among others – we’re taking the home squad in this one. If Alabama is going to bounce back into the discussion of potential playoff teams, it has to start with a win of a comfortable margin here.

Alabama 42
South Carolina 20

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN