It’s obvious that a letdown coming off the Georgia win was top-of-mind for Kalen DeBoer and staff this week, because coaches set up literal rat traps around the football building immediately afterward to remind the players just how dangerous it is to overlook anyone – even Vanderbilt – in SEC play.
The Commodores have been a Predictions Dept. killer for TideFans.com this year. In the preseason, we picked the Commodores to go 2-10 and lose to Georgia State. But then Vandy beat Virginia Tech in the opener, and took Missouri to the brink two weeks ago before losing in OT. The Commodores sit 2-2, and while 2-10 is still mathematically possible, the Commodores don’t even look like the worst team in the SEC anymore. That “honor,” as it is, belongs probably to Mississippi State.
What makes this all so much more interesting is how the Commodores did it. Vanderbilt brought in coaches and players from New Mexico State over the offseason, most notably QB Diego Pavia and offensive coordinator Tim Beck. In doing so, the Commodores have doubled down, if not tripled down on option concepts and deception out of the offensive backfield. Vanderbilt has, in a way, become the answer to the question, “what if a service academy joined the SEC?”
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As such, Alabama probably won’t have the easy go it originally expected. But Vanderbilt still found a way to lose to Georgia State, and the explanation there is that, for all the eye candy and trickery now inherent to the ‘Dores’ offensive scheme, this is still a program that just doesn’t have the kind of talent it needs to compete week in and week out in this conference.
OFFENSE
Vanderbilt has tried a bit of everything over the years to cover up talent deficiencies, and the latest is some kind of hybrid option offense that uses spread formations, flips offensive line protections based on the playcall and ball position and pulls a lot of its cues from old wishbone concepts and even Dennis Franchione’s favored flex-option attack. Statistically, it’s nothing special: 63rd in rushing, 101st in passing, 93rd in total offense. But the efficiency is there: Vandy ranks 25th in scoring offense, converts third and fourth downs well, and is in the top quartile in the country in turnover margin. Alabama brings its Air Raid-flavored power spread attack to Nashville, ranking 16th in rushing, 40th in passing and 14th in total offense. Alabama is 8th in the country in scoring offense.
QUARTERBACKS
If anything, Diego Pavia is Jalen Milroe Lite. He is the top passer and rusher on the Commodores, although the overall production isn’t up to Milroe’s levels. Pavia is around 6’0” and 210 pounds, which are typical running back measurements. He is a tough player and has shown himself to be a confident leader, something Vanderbilt has lacked most of the time post-Jay Cutler at the position. His passing numbers are 54-of-85 (63.5%) for 721 yards, 6 touchdowns and no interceptions. Milroe has thrown the same number of passes (85), but has completed 62 of them for a 72.9% completion rate, 964 yards, 10 touchdowns and 1 pick.
Like Alabama with Milroe, a lot of Vandy’s running game will flow through Pavia, probably more in fact than it does for the Crimson Tide with its quarterback. Pavia has rushed 71 times for 279 yards (3.9 avg.) and 2 touchdowns, and that’s where the big difference shows up between the two players. Milroe is about the same total yardage (273), but it’s on 19 fewer carries, which pushes the average up to 5.3 yards per tote for him – not to mention the 8 touchdowns. Between that, and the fact that Milroe is averaging around 3 yards more per completion, Pavia is the guy you need to account for, but it’s not quite to the level that Bama’s opponents have to deal with the Milroe problem.
As for depth, Alabama’s Ty Simpson is probably the better option, but Vanderbilt’s Nate Johnson actually has more career experience – thanks to what he did at Utah prior to transferring in – and is more like the player he would be replacing (Pavia) than Simpson is Milroe. Johnson was a former four-star recruit and is the future in Nashville, but he has 3 carries and no pass attempts so far for Vandy, so we don’t really know what to expect there. Pavia is a great story, but Milroe is the Heisman frontrunner for a reason. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Alabama’s Jam Miller and Justice Haynes didn’t put up huge individual numbers against Georgia, but both were integral to the victory and both are among the most-talented running backs at any SEC school. The question is, what is Vanderbilt’s Sedrick Alexander? Alexander and his backup, A.J. Newberry, have put up decent numbers so far – Newberry has been highly efficient in red zone work – but overall, Alexander’s per-carry average is hovering around the 4-yard-per-carry mark, which is not good enough in this league. It’s probably a combination of Alexander’s lesser ability relative to other SEC starters combined with some lingering concerns within the Vandy offensive line. Alexander has some size concerns – 5’9” with barely 200 pounds on his frame – while Newberry is taller but also slimmer.
Like Alabama, the real question-slash-problem is dealing with the quarterback as a runner. Miller and Haynes are both averaging exactly 8 yards per carry. The other thing to account for with Vanderbilt is a fullback. Yes, a fullback. Gabe Fisher and Emmanuel Adebi will line up there, although Adebi is listed as a tight end on the roster. It’s just another of those throwback things you rarely see these days. Neither has carried the ball in 2024, although Fisher has been used as a receiver from that spot. Advantage: Alabama
WIDE RECEIVERS
Quincy Skinner and Junior Sherrill have both put up decent numbers in the early going for Vanderbilt, but there’s a lack of depth, and the weekly injury report isn’t kind at the moment. Vanderbilt will probably be without Joseph McVay in this game, and could also be without Loic Fouonji. Richie Hoskins and Tristen Brown are next up, but neither has made an impact. Vanderbilt’s leading receiver is a tight end, Eli Stowers, and the Commodores like to use two and even three tight ends at times, so the ultimate solution may be to lean heavily into the power game anyway. Skinner’s height will also be something Bama has to contend with.
For the Crimson Tide, one of its starters, Kendrick Law, is listed as doubtful and probably won’t play. His loss removes the most physical presence from the wide receiver unit, but Bama is still in good shape with Germie Bernard, Kobe Prentice and, of course, Ryan “Hollywood” Williams. Williams’ performance against Georgia was one of the best in school history. Emmanuel Henderson Jr., Cole Adams and Caleb Odom become the second group if Law isn’t in it. Alabama uses its tight ends to even greater effect than Vanderbilt does; expect C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts and Josh Cuevas to all play big roles in this game. Bama has the best player, superior depth and may even have the edge at Vandy’s best spot in the unit, tight end. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Vanderbilt doesn’t have the best offensive line metrics but they’re a far sight better than what they’ve been in recent years. The Commodores rank 67th in sacks allowed and 52nd in tackles for loss allowed, and any time the ‘Dores rank around the midpoint nationally, it’s news. Steven Losoya will start at center with Gunnar Hansen and Chase Mitchell at the tackles, and Kevo Wesley at left guard. Right guard will be either Steven Hubbard or Delfin Xavier Castillo; both have recorded starts there this year. This is an extremely veteran unit; Hansen is the “youngest” of the group at left tackle – and he’s a redshirt junior.
Alabama ranks 57th in sacks allowed and 61st in tackles for loss allowed, which is a little better than Vanderbilt’s report but only by an eyelash. What’s more important for Bama is how the line has cleaned up its play now that Elijah Pritchett has settled in at right tackle. Parker Brailsford will start at center with Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts at the guards and Kadyn Proctor at left tackle.
Against Georgia, Alabama allowed 1 QB hurry, no sacks and kept the Georgia run defense basically at bay throughout the game. Vanderbilt deserves kudos for getting this unit into a better spot than in recent years, even if it is sort of a cobbled-together group via the transfer portal, but they lack the top-end athleticism of Bama’s players. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
What’s really keeping Vanderbilt in games may very well be the defense as much as the offense. The Commodores run from a variant of the 3-4 over/under that Alabama fans will be greatly familiar with, and the most notable achievement for Vanderbilt so far has been getting the rush defense numbers under control (52nd). The Commodores rank 54th in total defense, also a good showing, but have been less effective against the pass: 71st in raw pass defense, 73rd in efficiency defense. Bama comes in ranked 41st in total defense, 46th against the run and 52nd in raw pass defense, but pass efficiency defense comes in 10th. The new 4-2-5 Swarm alignment has done what it was advertised to do: It’s not holding the raw stats down like Bama’s old system, but it’s causing more mistakes from the offense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Vandy suffered a big loss when Zaylin Wood was ruled out for this game Thursday. Wood isn’t the biggest defensive tackle, but he plays with good leverage and a lot of what Vandy does up front revolves around him. On the other hand, the Commodores might get Khordae Sydnor back for this one. De’Marion Thomas is the only sure starter right now, and at 6’6” and 340 pounds, he’s the kind of linemen Vanderbilt’s opponents usually don’t have to deal with. Either Linus Zunk or Sydnor will start at the combo tackle/end slot, while Christian James and Yilanan Ouattara will try to replace Wood.
Bama will also need to watch key reserve Aeneas DiCosmo, who has next-level quickness at end. Vanderbilt has put up quality numbers from this group – the Commodores rank 44th in sacks and 37th in tackles for loss. Alabama’s line did a good job of speeding up Carson Beck’s clock last week, but the Crimson Tide didn’t get home often with base pressure. Tim Keenan, James Smith, Tim Smith, Damon Payne Jr. and Jehiem Oatis will rotate inside, with Jah-Marien Latham and L.T. Overton playing end and Quandarrius Robinson, Qua Russaw and Keanu Koht coming from the Wolf spot.
We’re going to give this to Alabama based solely on health – getting Russaw back at Wolf should stabilize the base package against the Commodore running game – but this is not a typical Vanderbilt defensive line. The Commodores have the ability to cause some problems with their personnel groupings. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Presuming Justin Jefferson, who is listed as probable, is able to play at full song Saturday, it’s hard to imagine a linebacker group playing better than Alabama’s right now. Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell were all over the field against Georgia and Vanderbilt hasn’t seen anything like them yet this year. Jefferson has gotten nicked up a couple of times in 2024 and needs to stay clean this week, because it’s easy to see how a player with his quickness could negatively affect an offensive scheme like Vanderbilt’s.
The Commodores will start Bryan Longwell and Langston Patterson inside and Myles Capers at the Jack spot. Overall, they’ve played well this year; Patterson was probably the player most observers thought would be the bellcow in the preseason, and while he is the team’s leading tackler at the moment, it’s Longwell who has developed the ability to make plays in the backfield. Capers has only a half-sack to this point but he’s broken up 3 passes and gets high tackle production from that spot. Vanderbilt will likely be without his backup, Boubacar Diakite, and neither Jailen Ruth nor Darren Agu have done much in relief this year.
There are plenty of teams who would like to find a spot for either Longwell or Patterson on their rosters, but Bama is just a level better at the moment. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Despite the presence of safeties De’Rickey Wright and C.J. Taylor, Vanderbilt continues to put up subpar numbers in the secondary. True freshman Dontae Carter, who is probably next in line to be the Commodores’ next great safety in a couple of years, will probably play in this game but be limited at the same time.
Randon Fontanette is listed as the starter at Star, but it’s a different kind of Star than the one Alabama fans got used to seeing after years of players built like Brian Branch. Fontanette is technically thrown in with the linebacker group, although backup Jeffrey Ugochukwu is standard DB size. Fontanette gives Vanderbilt more of a rover linebacker look when he’s in, which is one reason why the Commodores have done better against the run than in previous years. The cornerback duo of Martel Hight and either Tyson Russell or Kolbey Taylor is where Vandy’s problems are probably focused. The three have combined for just one pass break-up thus far.
Alabama will rotate Domani Jackson, Zabien Brown, DaShawn Jones and Jaylen Mbakwe at corner, with Devonta Smith, Malachi Moore and Keon Sabb at the safeties and Red Morgan backing them up. Both teams have been rough around the edges but Bama has the superior athletes. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Vanderbilt has been somewhat up the middle on special teams, ranking 26th in net punting, 10th in punt returns and 48th in kickoff returns, but struggling on kickoff return defense (69th) and especially punt return defense (125th). Kicker Brock Taylor is 7-of-10, the misses coming from a variety of distances. Alabama has been in the middle of the stats on returns, and excels in punt return defense but has been shaky on kickoff return defense.
Net punting, though, is weaponized behind James Burnip, with the Tide at 9th in that category and Burnip looking like a future NFL star. What no one yet knows is how well Graham Nicholson is going to perform under pressure; he is 1-of-2 on field goals this year, barely squeaking in a short one against Georgia last week. He’s the 2023 Groza Award winner, so the presumption is he’ll be up to the task, but so far Bama hasn’t needed him that much. The edge of Burnip at punter, along with the fact that neither team has really stood out in this category so far, pushes it to Bama. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in all eight categories, although the OL-DL cross-matchups tighten up a bit. Bama still holds an edge in both, but it’s not the typical edge one would expect in a game against the Commodores.
Could Bama get caught in a rat trap this week and spoil its spotless-to-date season? Of course. The Commodores have proven, against both Virginia Tech and Missouri, that they’re not going to back down to anyone just because of the name on the front of the opponents’ jerseys. But the Georgia State loss looms as a harbinger of what this Commodore team can also be if it’s not playing well. Missouri probably let off the gas, preparation-wise, once it had seen the GSU loss. It nearly bit the Tigers, and Bama’s coaches are doing everything possible to keep it from biting the Crimson Tide, too.
We wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this game be tighter than expected, or sloppy early, but are the Commodores likely to mount a serious challenge that they can maintain until the end of the game? Probably not.
Alabama 41
Vanderbilt 17
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