Last Week’s Record: 11-2 (84.6%)
Season Record: 37-7 (84.1%)
Week 3 was a good week for the Predictions Dept. but it would have been even better had we stuck to our preseason upset pick of Georgia State over Vanderbilt. The Commodores continue to almost single-handedly ruin our picking percentage in the early going. This week, the headline game – if you can call it that – is an Oklahoma team that can’t seem to find its way offensively against a Tennessee team that is having its way against all opponents. The rest of the schedule is decidedly “meh.”
ARKANSAS at AUBURN
This game could be interesting just off the backstories. Bob Petrino has coached at both schools, including a multi-tenure engagement at Arkansas. The Razorbacks nearly knocked off Oklahoma State two weeks ago, but were taken to the edge by UAB last week. Auburn is coming off an unimpressive win over New Mexico that raised questions about the Tiger defense. The big question here is whether Auburn can score consistently on Arkansas, new quarterback or not. The California loss should have been a big red flag to the Tigers in that regard. Arkansas appears to have its offense mostly straightened out, but the Razorback defense is a sieve against good teams. The fact that Sam Pittman’s job is hanging in the balance at Arkansas, and Hugh Freeze is starting to catch some heat in Auburn only adds to the drama. Neither of these teams are contenders, but at least the show should be good.
Auburn 30
Arkansas 28
FLORIDA at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Along with Vanderbilt, these are the worst teams in the conference, and there’s a chance the Commodores may be better than both. Mississippi State was shocked by Toledo last week, not just the fact the game was a loss, but that it was a blowout. Those things just don’t happen to SEC teams. Florida looked barely competitive against Texas A&M and it would seem Billy Napier’s tenure in Gainesville is over; it’s just a matter of when Florida pulls the trigger. If Florida were to lose this game, Monday might be a good day for it.
Florida 27
Mississippi St. 24
OHIO at KENTUCKY
For all the hand-wringing over Kentucky following an ugly 31-6 loss to South Carolina two weeks ago, the Wildcats came within an eyelash last week of taking down Georgia, of all teams. This week’s opponent, Ohio, is currently doing Ohio things: The Bobcats played well against Syracuse in the opener, beat a good South Alabama team in Week 2 … and then messed around with FCS Morgan State last week, posting a ho-hum 21-6 victory. No one is really sure what the issue is with Kentucky at the moment, but the Wildcats shouldn’t really be challenged here. Ohio is a good MAC team, but not really a threat to power conference teams … or at least, shouldn’t be.
Kentucky 31
Ohio 10
CALIFORNIA-LOS ANGELES at LOUISIANA STATE
This was supposed to be an interesting intersectional matchup but it’s starting to look like a pending blowout. UCLA barely got by Hawaii in the opener, 16-13, then got blown out at home by Indiana last week, 42-13. The hiring of Deshaun Foster at UCLA was widely considered one of the least impressive hires of the last cycle, but no one saw the Indiana blowout coming. Now UCLA has to go to Baton Rouge and face a team that has questions on defense, but is developing an identity on offense.
LSU 44
UCLA 20
GEORGIA SOUTHERN at MISSISSIPPI
Ole Miss hasn’t been tested yet and likely won’t be seriously tested this week, either, although Georgia Southern has a win over Nevada and a near-upset of Boise State – a game in which the Eagles posted 45 points – on the resume. Aside from perhaps Wake Forest, Georgia Southern will be Ole Miss’ best opponent thus far. The Eagles especially are capable of testing the Rebel defense, something that might actually do Ole Miss good in the long run.
Ole Miss 52
Ga. Southern 24
VANDERBILT at MISSOURI
Time will tell whether Missouri faced a tough Boston College team last week, or whether the Tigers’ fast start was just a mirage. But Vanderbilt has greater problems than whatever Missouri is dealing with. After a stunning opening win over Virginia Tech and dispatching FCS Alcorn as expected, the Commodores reverted to form, losing late to Georgia State. Suddenly it’s not the offense that’s the problem in Nashville so much as it is the defense – and Missouri is quite capable of shining a light on those deficiencies.
Missouri 44
Vanderbilt 20
TENNESSEE at OKLAHOMA
Nothing Oklahoma has done so far this year has really surprised us; we talked at length about the Sooners’ roster rebuild in the preseason. Here’s their chance to break from the mold. Tennessee comes to town with what appears to be the SEC’s best offense, although it hasn’t really been tested yet. The North Carolina State win doesn’t look quite so impressive given the Wolfpack’s mediocre showing on defense against Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech. The Sooners appear to be better sorted on defense at the moment than on offense, so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma holds this one close for a bit. We just don’t see enough offensive power on the Sooner side to keep up, though.
Tennessee 42
Oklahoma 17
AKRON at SOUTH CAROLINA
If the Gamecocks could have found a way to overcome the spotty officiating and other breaks of the game last week and had actually beaten LSU, this game would have been a tune-up going into a likely battle of unbeatens against Ole Miss. As it is, South Carolina finds itself trying to pick itself up emotionally, and Akron is a perfect foil for the situation. Akron is 1-2 with an 11-point win over Colgate the only bright spot so far in a schedule that has seen the Zips get zapped by both Ohio State and Rutgers. South Carolina would have to completely forget to show up for Akron to have any chance here, but the Gamecocks are an emotion team more so than most. This one may turn out closer than expected for that reason alone.
South Carolina 34
Akron 20
LOUISIANA-MONROE at TEXAS
Don’t look now, but the Warhawks are 2-0. The win over Jackson State was nothing to write home about, but ULM took down UAB 32-6 in Week 2, a win that looks a lot better than it did a week ago after UAB held serve against Arkansas. However, Texas isn’t messing around. The Longhorn offense is hitting on all cylinders and the defense has looked fairly elite as well. The Longhorns begin their inaugural SEC schedule next week against Mississippi State; the question is, which team will Texas beat worse, MSU or ULM?
Texas 56
La.-Monroe 7
BOWLING GREEN at TEXAS A&M
This might actually be a trap game of sorts for the Aggies. The win over Florida was a step forward in all aspects, but there’s still a lot to work on, and rival Arkansas shows up on the schedule next week. This week, the Aggies get a Bowling Green team that was off last week after giving Penn State all the Nittany Lions could want the week before. We don’t have enough of a body of work on Bowling Green to call this an upset special – the Falcons’ only other game was a win against FCS Fordham in the opener – but if Texas A&M completely overlooks the Falcons, this game could get uncomfortable.
Texas A&M 34
Bowling Green 17
IDLE: Alabama, Georgia
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN