It felt like a worse week for the Predictions Dept. than it really was, mostly off the miss of the Mississippi State-Arizona State game. This week, a few more intraconference matchups are set to take place, and we’ll need to do better on those than we did with the USC-Kentucky opener that went decidedly against what we were expecting to see.
Last Week’s Record: 12-3 (80.0%)
Season Record: 26-5 (83.9%)
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM at ARKANSAS
The ending to Arkansas’ game with Oklahoma State was tragic for Razorback fans, because a win there and this season suddenly looks quite different. Arkansas will almost certainly get by UAB this week, as the Blazers lost big to Louisiana-Monroe last week and don’t look like the same team they were just a couple of seasons ago. It’s too early yet to close the door on the Sam Pittman era in Arkansas, but the Razorbacks will need to springboard off a win in this game and beat Auburn the following week, or six wins will be hard to come by.
Arkansas 45
UAB 10
ALABAMA at WISCONSIN
See our extended preview! | Projected Alabama Depth Chart vs Wisconsin
NEW MEXICO at AUBURN
Bronco Mendenhall is 0-2 at New Mexico in 2024; the Lobos put up a decent fight against Arizona last week, but also lost the opener to Montana St. Why are we spending time talking about this? Because the Lobos can score points, and no one really knows whether Auburn can or not. The Tigers’ opening win over Alabama A&M is almost useless data, given the chasm that exists between the talent of those two programs. When matched up against a middle-of-the-road California team this past week, Auburn couldn’t quit making mistakes and ended up putting just 14 points on the board. We’ve already seen two head-scratching Auburn losses now under Hugh Freeze, one each to Cal and to New Mexico State, to simply trust the outcome of this one to go to script. The problem is, no one knows what the script is.
Auburn 35
New Mexico 21
TEXAS A&M at FLORIDA
Both teams looked listless in Week 1 losses, then bounced back against second-division opponents last week. Now comes the test for each: Are the Aggies on the right path under Mike Elko, and can Billy Napier get more out of his depleted roster than he did against Miami? The first team to answer “yes” gets the win in this one, a game we’re fairly certain will see an outsized number of mistakes, missed opportunities and head-shaking gaffes. We believe in the long-term future of the A&M program, at least when the new staff is able to attract some more dynamic skill talent. Florida’s situation is probably different. If this game ends up as expected, Napier’s employment should be considered a week-to-week engagement.
Texas A&M 23
Florida 17
GEORGIA at KENTUCKY
Kentucky was trying to position itself as a darkhorse among former SEC East teams, but the program just seems to have a Lucy Van Pelt hanging around, snatching the football away every time the Wildcats try to advance. Kentucky looked awful against South Carolina, with former Georgia QB Brock Vandagriff throwing for a whopping 30 yards against a secondary that is average only on its best days. What the Wildcats hoped would be a showdown of Vandagriff versus his old team has now turned potentially to a quarterback competition against a much better Bulldog team with no clear weaknesses. How this game ends up anything other than a blowout, we just can’t see it.
Georgia 41
Kentucky 13
LOUISIANA STATE at SOUTH CAROLINA
Suddenly this game has the potential to be competitive. It depends more on what South Carolina really is than what LSU really is, because LSU appears known to have issues. After losing to Southern Cal, LSU took entirely too much time to pull away from FCS Nicholls State this past Saturday. South Carolina, meanwhile, opened with an unimpressive win over Old Dominion, but followed that up with a clock-cleaning of Kentucky. Depending on which Gamecock team shows up, LSU might be in trouble. Williams-Brice Stadium is underrated in regard to how difficult it can be for visiting teams to play in, and South Carolina’s home crowd gets pretty rowdy when it detects a real chance at victory. If South Carolina’s offensive improvements aren’t smoke and mirrors, the Gamecocks could make this one interesting, given LSU’s defensive struggles.
LSU 31
South Carolina 27
MISSISSIPPI at WAKE FOREST
The Demon Deacons aren’t likely to pull an upset here, but Wake came within a point of beating Virginia last week; this is not the weakest opponent the Rebels could find. Still, Ole Miss’ advantage in team speed is going to show up early and often. What the Rebels have to do is find a way to slow down the nation’s fifth-ranked passing attack in the process.
Ole Miss 48
Wake Forest 24
TOLEDO at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Toledo comes into this one 2-0, but those wins have been over UMass and Duquesne, not exactly the NFC North. Mississippi State still has a long way to go its transition away from both a dismal and awkward 2023 season, and the fragments of the Mike Leach system that preceded it. But the Bulldogs should find this one fairly easy sledding.
Mississippi St. 30
Toledo 13
BOSTON COLLEGE at MISSOURI
Boston College is 2-0 and ranked, but most of that is off the strength of a 28-13 win over a Florida State program that appears to be beset with internal issues. The Tigers are coming off a strong shutout of Buffalo, and while Boston College has certainly improved over past seasons, the Tigers have more team speed, more continuity and are hosting the game. If Bill O’Brien’s team somehow finds a way to win this one, two things will happen: One, it will probably derail what Missouri fans are thinking is a playoff run; two, O’Brien immediately becomes top target on several schools’ (and maybe NFL teams’) coaching lists.
Missouri 37
Boston College 19
TULANE at OKLAHOMA
We thought that Oklahoma might have some issues in 2024 but we didn’t expect them to show up at home against Houston. Now Oklahoma gets the team that Houston’s Willie Fritz was coaching last year, the Tulane Green Wave, which very nearly upset Kansas State last Saturday. If Oklahoma plays Tulane the way it played Houston, it could very easily lose. But we’re going to bet the Sooners learned from their performance, hopefully making improvements to the offensive line in the process. If the Sooners struggle again, though, our prediction of six wins starts to look generous.
Oklahoma 31
Tulane 17
KENT STATE at TENNESSEE
Tennessee’s offense may be the most explosive in the conference right now, Georgia, Texas and Alabama included. An 0-2 Kent State team offers itself up for this week’s sacrifice.
Tennessee 60
Kent State 10
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at TEXAS
No chance for UTSA to play spoiler this week. The Longhorns look like one of the top 2-3 teams in the SEC and have been dialed in to start the year.
Texas 52
UTSA 10
VANDERBILT at GEORGIA STATE
We actually picked Vanderbilt to lose this game in our preseason SEC report, but now that Vandy has proven itself against Virginia Tech, and Georgia State has stumbled out to a 1-1 start with a loss to Georgia Tech and just a 24-21 victory over Chattanooga, we’re going to reverse the pick. The development of the Commodore offense is the main thing to watch here, as the ‘Dores are doing some fairly unique things on that side of the football. A 3-0 start is a possibility, with Missouri next up.
Vanderbilt 38
Georgia State 17
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