Week 1 was an OK week for the Predictions Dept.; we gave LSU’s defense the benefit of the doubt in a close call over Southern Cal, but the Tigers just weren’t up for the challenge. The Vanderbilt-Virginia Tech game, however, was a shocker to us, especially in light of the wholesale changes the Commodores made to the offensive system over the offseason. We’ll have to rethink our position on the future Vandy schedule. This week’s games are highlighted by several key out-of-conference games, probably the biggest of those being Texas traveling to Michigan.
Last Week’s Record: 14-2 (87.5%)
Season Record: 14-2 (87.5%)
ARKANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE
Arkansas at the very least got off to a running start with a blowout win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but there’s not really much to glean from that game. In lopsided contests, the only time news is news is when the heavily favored team struggles. Oklahoma State opened with a solid win over South Dakota State, but again, what is there to tell at this point? We’ll fall back on our preseason evaluation of the Razorbacks, which wasn’t a very optimistic outlook. We said at the time that the whole thing will rise or fall on the way the Arkansas program as a whole manages the tricky Bob-Petrino-returns situation. For now, it’s working.
Oklahoma St. 33
Arkansas 27
SOUTH FLORIDA at ALABAMA
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CALIFORNIA at AUBURN
Cal was thoroughly average in its opening win over UC-Davis, while Auburn beat Alabama A&M so badly it didn’t even qualify as a decent scrimmage. Cal probably had its chance to beat Auburn in 2023; the Golden Bears just don’t have the speed or the firepower this year to hang with an SEC team, even one in the conference’s middle range. If there’s a way for Cal to pull the upset here, it will be from Auburn not having any idea how to act in a close game, because last week’s matchup can’t even be called a contest. It was the result of a check written to an in-state school to come to town and play the role of the slaughtered lamb, which A&M did perfectly. The problem for Cal is if you’re hanging your hat on your ability to fight through adversity and that adversity came at the hands of UC-Davis, it might be time to temper expectations.
Auburn 34
California 20
SAMFORD at FLORIDA
Florida needs a game like this badly because the Gators looked completely impotent in the opener against Miami. Gator head coach Billy Napier is officially on the clock. Napier is almost in the realm of having to win his job back, and any kind of struggle whatsoever against Samford would be poison. Samford has played gamely against bigger competition in the recent past, so Florida needs to not mess around. Build a big lead and control the game – don’t let Samford begin to believe.
Florida 40
Samford 10
TENNESSEE TECH at GEORGIA
A moment of silence for the boys from Cookeville, please.
Georgia 60
Tennessee Tech 7
SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY
This is the SEC intraconference opener? We hit both these teams between the eyes last week; Kentucky won comfortably over Southern Miss but didn’t dominate, while South Carolina got taken to the wire by Old Dominion. This game will tell a lot about where South Carolina truly is as a program, and unfortunately for the Gamecocks, we think the early returns are already pointing to a disappointing season. Kentucky needs to get the offense working a bit better than it did against a bad USM team. The game is in Lexington, so the Wildcats should have no excuses.
Kentucky 35
South Carolina 17
NICHOLLS STATE at LOUISIANA STATE
LSU’s opening-week egg-laying has put a lot of pressure on Brian Kelly, and his post-loss anger, faked or not, might not have the intended effect on this roster. LSU was schizophrenic enough in 2023 even with Jayden Daniels at quarterback, and with no Daniels to bail out a soft defense, building confidence should be a priority. Nicholls State is the perfect starting point for LSU to do just that.
LSU 57
Nicholls State 13
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at MISSISSIPPI
MTSU beat Tennessee Tech by a single score last week; Ole Miss beat Furman so badly the Paladins were probably reconsidering their life choices. Ole Miss leads the nation in total offense at the moment – and may still do so following this suspected bloodbath.
Ole Miss 59
MTSU 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARIZONA STATE
Mississippi State got a nice win over Eastern Kentucky in Jeff Lebby’s opener, but a closer examination of the numbers finds that the Bulldogs didn’t really excel in any one area; they simply out-talented EKU. Arizona State is a program still reeling from the Herm Edwards fallout and the Sun Devils aren’t really supposed to contend, but they opened with a better performance over a better opponent (Wyoming). Now’s when it gets tricky for prognosticators: Go with the home-field advantage and team with more continuity (albeit not by much), or take the SEC program and its generally superior athleticism? This may be the toughest game on the board to pick this week.
Mississippi St. 30
Arizona State 27
BUFFALO at MISSOURI
Buffalo is well-coached and closed the deal with a nice opening win over Lafayette, but the Bulls are still in rebuilding mode and Missouri, most decidedly, is not. We wouldn’t be surprised if Missouri does some typical Missouri things this week – like letting Pete Lembo’s squad hang out for a quarter or two longer than expected – but there’s no way the Bulls should be able to get close enough in the end to threaten an upset.
Missouri 44
Buffalo 14
HOUSTON at OKLAHOMA
Houston was shockingly non-competitive in a listless loss to UNLV in the opener. Oklahoma has some concerns – we talked about the high turnover in the roster and especially the starting offensive lineup in our preseason previews – but unless Houston was engaged in the most convincing game of possum ever played in Week 1, there’s no way this one is going to be close. Big – and immediate – things were expected of Willie Fritz after leaving Tulane for the Cougars, and a 27-7 loss to UNLV wasn’t an item on that particular dance card. Fritz will need to get his team to do a full 180 this week or it could trigger a long, frustrating season in east Texas.
Oklahoma 37
Houston 13
TENNESSEE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE (at Charlotte, N.C.)
Tennessee, as expected, mauled Chattanooga in the opener and now gets an NC State team that spent an awful long time playing with its food in an opener against FCS Western Carolina before finally pulling away. The good news for the Wolfpack is that its offensive output outperformed the numbers on the scoreboard, and it happened against a better opponent than the one Tennessee drew. The bad news is that if NC State thought Western Carolina could be trouble, it hasn’t seen anything yet. The test for the Volunteers will be whether its completely retooled secondary can handle a legitimate offense, something that the Volunteers didn’t get to test out last week. This game will go a long way toward showing the rest of us what Tennessee really has in the tank as it tries to be a contender.
Tennessee 40
NC State 30
TEXAS at MICHIGAN
Michigan was unimpressive in its opening win over Fresno State, ultimately getting the job done but taking far too long to get there. Texas, meanwhile, dismantled an improving Colorado State team. Michigan lost a ton since winning the national title in 2023 – its head coach, its star quarterback, and a chunk of the roster to the transfer portal. Texas has plenty of offensive firepower and if the defense is now coming around, too, we don’t believe Michigan can match the Longhorns punch-for-punch. Yes, the game is in Ann Arbor. We’re about to see just how much that matters against a superior opponent.
Texas 34
Michigan 20
MCNEESE STATE at TEXAS A&M
Here’s the game Mike Elko should have led the season off with. Instead, the Aggies are trying to explain away losing by 10 points at home to Notre Dame and not showing any spark of offense in the process.
Texas A&M 48
McNeese 0
ALCORN STATE at VANDERBILT
Congratulations to the Commodores, who jumped out to a 17-0 lead on Virginia Tech last week and then managed to avoid doing too many Vandy things late in the game, holding on for an overtime victory. Getting off to a 2-0 start now looks like a given. Alcorn got whipped 41-3 by UAB in its opener and will probably get a similarly long bus ride home this week.
Vanderbilt 44
Alcorn 10
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