When Western Kentucky first appeared on Alabama’s 2024 schedule as the opening game, the thoughts of roasting in the late summer heat watching Alabama duel with a mid-level Conference USA opponent meant the prospects of a cheap ticket were probably high.
Then Nick Saban retired, Kalen DeBoer was hired and the Crimson Tide’s world got turned upside down. Suddenly, this game became less of a tune-up and more of the unveiling of a new brand of football in Tuscaloosa, and ticket scalpers everywhere rejoiced.
Western Kentucky isn’t a bad team, but whether the Hilltoppers have the roster to slow down Alabama – even an Alabama team overhauling both its offense and its defense simultaneously – is a question answered, most likely, in the negative. Fans wanting to know what Alabama really has under the hood probably aren’t going to find out this week. First-game jitters aside, anything other than a large-margin victory here – the same as it would have been under Nick Saban – will be unexpected.
OFFENSE
Western Kentucky operates from a one-back alignment and runs a spread passing attack, which is essentially the going rate for offense in college football at the moment. Former Alabama offensive lineman and multiple-SEC-team assistant Will Friend is the offensive coordinator. If anything, WKU is more wide-open than most, listing four starting wide receivers on some depth charts. In 2023, the Hilltoppers ranked 15th in the nation in passing offense, but only 51st in total offense, thanks to a running game (117th) that didn’t produce. Alabama’s offense, which aside from the Mike Locksley/Tua Tagovailoa version has been the same multiple, pro-style attack since 2007, is changing. It is likely to look like a hybrid of DeBoer’s offenses at Fresno State and Washington, probably a bit heavier on the run in the early going. Expect a lot of motion, screens, RPO and zone-read action in the backfield, and faster-developing plays under what is essentially a hybrid pro-style spread/Air Raid base.
QUARTERBACKS
T.J. Finley has another season beyond 2024 so there’s an outside chance he could land on Alabama’s schedule a fourth time with four different programs. Alabama has already seen Finley as both an LSU and an Auburn Tiger, and now gets him in Hilltopper livery, a year after he played for Texas State. Finley is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the sport, at 6’7” and 238 pounds, but while he’s athletic he isn’t exactly a dual-threat standout. His arm is his primary weapon, and he has seen enough by now to be able to adequately lead this offense. WKU even has a solid depth situation at the position with Caden Veltkamp, who the WKU coaches are high on as the team’s future leader. He’s roughly the same build as Finley.
Alabama will start Jalen Milroe, who is both Alabama’s biggest potential superstar and also one of its biggest question marks. If the DeBoer staff can design an offense that better fits Milroe’s unique skillset, and get him to buy into it, the sky is the limit. But Milroe will have to show quicker decision-making skills and the ability to bounce back more quickly from negative plays.
Ty Simpson will be the backup and should get some meaningful work in this game. Whether Austin Mack or Dylan Lonergan get in the game is yet to be determined, but most likely neither will. Simpson has also reportedly improved substantially over last season, so Bama’s QB depth chart looks strong at the outset. Finley has the edge in overall experience, but Milroe is a more dynamic player. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
How much action Jamarion Miller gets for Alabama is yet to be determined, as Miller has missed recent practices with an injury. He’s still expected to get some work in this game, although Justice Haynes and Richard Young might get the bulk of the carries. True freshman Daniel Hill is probably out of this game with a shoulder injury, so if Miller is also held back a bit, look for another freshman, Kevin Riley, or walk-on J.R. Gardner to see some time.
Regardless of Alabama’s injury situation, the Crimson Tide has a lot more punch than do the Hilltoppers, fronted by Elijah Young. Young was the team’s leading rusher in 2023, but he only rolled up 474 yards and 3 touchdowns on 104 carries (4.6 avg.). Young began his career at Missouri, but is in that middle zone of not being really big enough to get inside against physical defenses, nor fast enough to run around them.
The backup is Jalen Hampton, who started out at Virginia Tech before transferring down a division and playing at Elon College for two years. He’s about on the level of Alabama’s better walk-ons. L.T. Sanders, who carried 31 times for 138 yards (4.5 avg.) in 2023, adds depth. Miller or no Miller, this category isn’t particularly close. Advantage: Alabama
WIDE RECEIVERS
Western Kentucky will field a solid group of receivers that should be among the better receiver units in Conference USA. Michael Mathison, who put up a solid 2022 campaign before missing the 2023 season with injury, returns to the field and could wind up being the best of a group that also includes veterans Easton Messer and Dalvin Smith. Smith will be the featured target early, but he needs to be more consistent on longer routes.
Alabama State transfer Kisean Johnson gets the fourth starting spot and WKU is high on his potential. Virginia transfer Demrick Starling and Bryce Childress, who managed to one-up T.J. Finley by now transferring to his fifth collegiate program in five years, will be the primary backups along with holdovers K.D. Hutchinson and Moussa Barry.
The main issue for this group is size; only Smith and Barry have decent length, although Kisean Johnson’s thick build could cause problems for smaller defensive backs. When WKU uses a tight end instead of a fourth receiver, River Helms is a good one. Alabama’s starting group hasn’t been formally announced, but the expectation is that Washington transfer Germie Bernard will lead a group that also includes Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law.
Cole Adams, Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and true freshmen Caleb Odom and Ryan Williams figure to see early action. Whether other signees like Rico Scott, Amari Jefferson or Aeryn Hampton get early looks may depend more on DeBoer’s approach to personnel groupings more than anything else.
With few exceptions, Alabama only liked to play five or six receivers in the A-group under Nick Saban. C.J. Dippre will start at tight end, likely ahead of Robbie Ouzts, but Danny Lewis Jr. and Josh Cuevas will probably see playing time as well, as could Ty Lockwood. There’s little question that Bernard is the best receiver on either team, but Western Kentucky has more returning production.
The real question is whether Prentice, Law and the freshmen live up to their billing and do it consistently. This is probably the closest call on the board and could really go either way. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Western Kentucky put up fabulous numbers in 2023, finishing 9th in sacks allowed and 23rd in tackles for loss allowed. Compared to Alabama’s numbers (122nd, 95th respectively), it’s hard to imagine calling this one for Alabama – until talent level is considered, albeit subjectively. Western Kentucky has a couple of players who could garner some level of pro attention, most notably G Quantavious Leslie. LT Marshall Jackson is athletic and good in pass protection.
There is some minor concern around the right tackle spot, where ULM transfer Stacey Wilkins has been slow to claim the spot, which might mean Micheal Ondelacey gets the call for this game. The Hilltoppers will also be breaking in a new center, Evan Wibberley.
Despite Alabama’s dismal OL metrics in 2023, there is hope for a much better outcome in 2024 thanks to the changes in offensive style, OL coaching and the arrival of transfer C Parker Brailsford, who was considered the top available transfer interior lineman in this cycle. The guard combo of Jaeden Roberts and Tyler Booker may be one of the best in the country, but Roberts sustained a hand injury in practice last week and as such, Michigan State transfer Geno VanDeMark might get the start on the right side. LT Kadyn Proctor has slimmed down and should be better compared to his freshman campaign in 2023, which was often uneven.
Like WKU, Alabama has a question at right tackle; it will be either redshirt freshman Wilkin Formby or Elijah Pritchett, who was Proctor’s backup at left tackle in 2023. It’s unclear yet how much the other reserves will play; true freshman Joe Ionata keeps getting looks at guard and center, while Miles McVay and Naquil Betrand may figure in at tackle.
We’re taking Bama based on potential for now, because reports out of Tuscaloosa suggest the basic problems that plagued the unit in 2023 have been largely fixed. If so, Bama could have three players drafted off this line (Booker, Brailsford, Roberts) next April. If receiver isn’t the closest call on the board, this is. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
For the first time in ages, Alabama won’t be running a three-man front as a base. The Crimson Tide is shifting to a 4-2-5 Swarm defense, which will require some major reprogramming of roles. While Nick Saban had begun using four-man and sub fronts in recent years, it didn’t go to this level. Western Kentucky, however, still uses elements of the 3-4 over/under but adds a near-permanent nickel component on top of that. Results in 2023 weren’t always pretty; WKU was 108th in total defense, 90th in scoring defense, 120th in rushing defense and 76th in raw pass defense. Only in pass efficiency defense, where the Hilltoppers landed 35th, was there something to cheer. WKU also struggled to stop teams on either third down or especially fourth down, where the Hilltoppers were one of the worst teams in the sport.
DEFENSIVE LINE
On top of the statistical concerns, WKU will replace five of the six starters in the defensive line and linebacker levels, with only DT Hosea Wheeler returning from a year ago. Wheeler doesn’t lack for size – he’s 6’6”, 300 pounds – and he has garnered some preseason all-star talk. At nose, WKU is counting on Jalil Rivera-Harvey, who is on his fourth program already. He put up unspectacular numbers at Marshall last year.
Western Kentucky ranked just 86th in sacks a year ago and the defensive end group produced just 1 between them. That one belonged to sophomore Deante McCray, who returns. Reserve tackles Jayden Loving and Terrion Thompson got 2 sacks each, but they’re on the smaller side for tackles and figure to have trouble with Bama’s guards.
Alabama moves to a four-man front with, most likely, Tim Keenan and Tim Smith at the tackles and Quandarrious Robinson and Jah-Marien Latham at the ends. The DE positions in this defense aren’t equals; Robinson and the rest of the players at the Wolf spot are mostly converted outside linebackers, while Latham and the others at the Bandit position were ends or small tackles in Bama’s previous scheme. L.T. Overton will get a lot of time at the Bandit spot, while Keanu Koht and Qua Russaw figure to play quite a bit at Wolf.
At tackle, Jeheim Oatis, James Smith and Damon Payne Jr. are probably the names to watch coming off the bench. Wheeler would be a quality addition to any SEC team, but Western Kentucky just doesn’t have enough pieces to fit around him. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
In the modern game, few teams have full-time, traditional three- or especially four-man LB units anymore. WKU brings a hybrid DE/Jack (either 2023 starter Kylan Guidry, or Sebastian Benjamin, who came out of the spring leading at the position) and two inside players, MLB Devon Lunch and WLB Anthony Brackenridge.
The good news here is that most of the players WKU has in the depth chart are upperclassmen; the bad news is that this group really didn’t do much a year ago. Then, Rashion Hodge, who started a handful of games and was expected to be a key contributor in 2024, transferred to Emporia State. WKU got decent numbers from the Guidry-Benjamin duo at Jack, but need more out of Lynch and Breckenridge, who combined for just 46 tackles and no sacks a year ago.
This is one position where Alabama has a pretty good idea of what it has, especially since Bama’s Jacks and OLBs spent more time as ends last year anyway, leaving the inside linebackers to patrol mostly alone as a duo. In that regard, the combination of Deonte Lawson and Jihaad Campbell has the look of being one of the best in the conference – if, and it’s a big if, both can stay healthy. Justin Jefferson has emerged as an interesting option as both a backup linebacker and a part of special packages, thanks mostly to his speed and safety-like agility. He just lacks the size of the two starters. Freshman Justin Okoronkwo is likely to be the other backup, especially with Jeremiah Alexander being banged up and perhaps not available to play. The competition between those two was close, anyway.
Other freshmen – Cayden Jones, Quinton Reese and Sterling Dixon – and walk-on Noland Asberry have all flashed at times, but we’ll have to see it play out before we know how many people the new staff will like to get into games. Comparing WKU’s Jack position to Bama’s Wolf DL position, it’s probably a wash, but Bama has a strong edge inside. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Despite losing S Kendrick Simpkins to Baylor – who managed to lead the Hiltoppers in sacks with 6.5 despite playing in the secondary – WKU thinks it might be slightly improved overall. The Hilltoppers return both corners (Upton Stout, Anthony Johnson) and the nickel corner/safety (Virgil Marshall) from a year ago, but Marshall lost his starting job as part of a reshuffling brought about by the addition of corner Kent Robinson from Texas A&M and safeties Devonte’ Mathews (Nicholls State) and Demarko Williams (Ole Miss). Robinson will play outside, moving Stout to the nickel spot, where his ability to freestyle will be highlighted.
This is the area in which Alabama is undergoing the most turnover. One starter returns, Malachi Moore, and he will apparently move into a high safety spot next to one of Bama’s transfers – Keon Sabb (Michigan), King Mack (Penn State) or Kameron Howard (UNC-Charlotte). At the new Husky position, which is a hybrid safety/linebacker, Devonta Smith is expected to start there with true freshman Rydarrius Morgan the likely backup. Smith has got to stay healthy for once. Even though the safety mix is much different from a year ago, the players are mostly all proven, with the notable exception of Morgan or possibly reserve Bray Hubbard.
The big question is at corner. USC transfer Domani Jackson appeared to have the light come on at some point, and he’ll be heavily counted upon as Bama’s top cover man. The other side of the field will either be manned by Wake Forest transfer DaShawn Jones or true freshman Zabien Brown. Two other true freshmen, Jaylen Mbakwe and Zavier Mincey, provide depth along with redshirt freshman Jahlil Hurley.
While Alabama certainly has the higher star factor here – and while the secondary performed better in spring and fall practices than originally expected – we’re going to take a wait-and-see approach. Western Kentucky wasn’t terrible in the back end last year and brought in an infusion of veteran talent. It’s enough to give the Hilltoppers the edge until Bama has actually proven something. Advantage: Western Kentucky
SPECIAL TEAMS
Western Kentucky has a solid placekicker in Lucas Carneiro and a reliable return man in Easton Messer. It will be breaking in a new punter, either Cole Maynard, a North Carolina transfer, or Riley Stephens, who transferred in from Austin Peay. Maynard is expected to win the job. Alabama is replacing PK Will Reichard but will do so with the 2023 Groza Award winner, Graham Nicholson. James Burnip returns at punter and has been wowing onlookers at fall camp practices.
Bama will need to get the return game stabilized, whether it’s with Germie Bernard, Jaylen Mbakwe or someone else. Bama figures to have great coverage teams just based on the available athleticism of the roster. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, Western Kentucky in one. There are really just three categories that get close to tossup criteria. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama should have a fairly solid edge in a comparison of its OL to the Western Kentucky DL. The reverse is a bit closer, but Bama controls it, too.
As such, even with all the newness that surrounds the Alabama program at the moment, it’s hard to see how Kalen DeBoer will have anything but a comfortable debut as Bama head coach. In order for Western Kentucky to spoil this game, Alabama would have to be completely discombobulated in pass defense, and WKU QB T.J. Finley would have to be on fire from start to finish. There’s really no other way it works for the Hilltoppers, who have to almost draw a specific card from the deck in order to pull an upset. The other 51 cards all lead to Bama wins.
What to look for here? Watch Alabama’s defense to see how it handles giving up a couple of big plays, which will probably happen. Watch for improved communication between QB Jalen Milroe and his linemen. Watch for better wide receiver play, which let Alabama down at times in recent years.
If Alabama does what is expected, the sky’s the limit. If it takes a last-minute effort to win here, talk radio and social media will erupt.
Alabama 44
W. Kentucky 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN