Last Year’s Record: 94-18 (83.9%)
The Predictions Dept. heads into Week 1 of the 2024 season coming off one of its best years previewing and picking games. Now the SEC throws a wrench into things, adding Texas and Oklahoma and eliminating divisions, giving us new challenges as we attempt to put another solid season of picks on the books.
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF at ARKANSAS (in Little Rock, Ark.)
What could be Sam Pittman’s final year in Fayetteville at least begins with a game his Razorbacks should win comfortably. It’s possible that if Arkansas is able to get its legs under itself a bit, that the Razorbacks could surprise, especially given the fact that Bob Petrino is now calling the offensive shots. Or, Petrino’s presence could be the catalyst for staff meltdown. Win or lose, Arkansas will be one of the most interesting teams to watch this season, if for no other reason but the drama.
Arkansas 47
UAPB 14
WESTERN KENTUCKY at ALABAMA
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ALABAMA A&M at AUBURN
Auburn is getting a lot of nods for darkhorse team of the SEC this year, in part due to a very manageable schedule. To that point, the Tigers begin the year on top of one of the biggest mismatch games of the season, for any SEC team. Of course, the Tigers found a way to lose to New Mexico State last year – by a 31-10 score, yet – so it might be wise to see the car actually go down the road before handing it the pole position.
Auburn 48
Alabama A&M 7
MIAMI at FLORIDA
Miami has its own challenges, not the least of which is replacing QB Tyler Van Dyke, who hit the transfer portal after the end of the 2023 season. But while Miami tries to answer a host of questions – like, is Mario Cristobal really the answer as head coach, and can the Hurricane program compete in the era of NIL – the far greater questions are on the Florida side of the field, where Billy Napier is a half-step ahead of a firing squad and the once-talent-rich Gators have been reduced to middle of the SEC pack. The duel between Miami’s Cam Ward and Florida’s Graham Mertz at quarterback should be interesting to watch, especially in the context of whether Florida’s defense can stop the Hurricane offense with Ward at the helm instead of Van Dyke. No analyst seems to love the Florida roster, but Miami can be scatterbrained at times as a program so anything’s possible. If Napier can pull this off, he’ll give himself – and his team – some room to breathe.
Miami 30
Florida 27
CLEMSON vs. GEORGIA (in Atlanta, Ga.)
Georgia gets tested right off the bat and while the Clemson program isn’t what it was a half-decade ago, the Tigers are banking on program consistency and internal development as they buck the transfer-now trend that has gripped the FBS level as a whole. Dabo Swinney also can be dangerous when he has a cause to champion, and Clemson feels as if it is being overlooked as a contender. What better way to send a wake-up call through college football by upsetting Georgia in the opener? Unfortunately, this is a heavy lift, thanks to a loaded Georgia roster (head coach Kirby Smart’s poor-mouthing notwithstanding), the game is in Atlanta and it’s been a minute since the Tigers actually proved anything meaningful. We wouldn’t be surprised with a close game for a half before watching Georgia pull away.
Georgia 34
Clemson 24
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI at KENTUCKY
Kentucky is famous for laying eggs against mid-level opponents every now and then, but Southern Miss doesn’t even rise to that level anymore. The Golden Eagles were once the terrors of Conference USA but have since tried to make a home in the Sun Belt Conference and, for 2024 at least, are being picked as one of the worst teams in the country. Southern Miss wasn’t good enough defensively last year to pretend to be ready to contend with an SEC team, and the offense returns just two starters and is undergoing a stylistic overhaul on top of that. Kentucky may take a bit to get rolling, but the talent level here is about as uneven as it could be.
Kentucky 45
Southern Miss 7
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA vs. LOUISIANA STATE (in Las Vegas, Nev.)
This becomes somewhat of a home game for USC due to the location but the real story here is these are two programs who both desperately need to win this game, not just for what it means for the short term, but potentially over the long haul as well. USC isn’t quite sure what it has anymore in head coach Lincoln Riley, whose 8-5 campaign in 2023 despite a ridiculously stacked roster shook the confidence of the fan base a bit. Riley ducked Oklahoma for Southern Cal in part to get away from the high-pressure environment in Norman, but he did so just in advance of the Trojans being admitted into the Big Ten. There’s no hiding anymore from the expectations. In Baton Rouge, Brian Kelly is hearing rumblings from the fans thanks mostly to being unable to field a contending-quality defense. That same problem exists for Riley in L.A., as well. These two programs are basically mirror images of each other, both replacing superstar quarterbacks to boot. USC thinks it has fixed the problems with its defense by changing coordinators, but they’re going to have to show us.
LSU 41
USC 38
FURMAN at MISSISSIPPI
Easy win for Ole Miss to kick off the season. Really nothing to talk about here.
Ole Miss 55
Furman 10
EASTERN KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Jeff Lebby needed an easy one to kick off his tenure as Mississippi State head coach, and he’s got it. However, the Bulldogs are far more vulnerable in these early games than most teams are, so a quick start – and limiting mistakes that go along with system changeovers – will be paramount.
Mississippi St. 41
E. Kentucky 17
MURRAY STATE at MISSOURI
Murray State’s mascot (mascots?) are the Racers. Appropriate, because they’ll be racing to get out of Memorial Stadium Thursday night.
Missouri 57
Murray State 10
TEMPLE at OKLAHOMA
Most people don’t realize just how bad the Temple roster is; the transfer portal was merciless in its treatment of the Owls, and this wasn’t a program on solid footing to begin with. Stan Drayton is likely on his way out as head coach already. Oklahoma has a lot of questions to answer about its own program, but whether it can beat Temple handily is not one of them.
Oklahoma 59
Temple 6
OLD DOMINION at SOUTH CAROLINA
If you’re looking for a potential upset special among the second-tier games involving SEC opponents, take this one. ODU finished 6-7 last year but was ridiculously close to posting a 10-win season. A lot of key personnel return, and ODU isn’t scared of playing the spoiler role. South Carolina is breaking in a new quarterback and also trying to fix a ramshackle offensive line and sieve-like defense, all at the same time. The Gamecocks should still win but this one might end up closer than their fans would like.
South Carolina 33
Old Dominion 27
TENNESSEE-CHATTANOOGA at TENNESSEE
If this game is close in any way, Neyland Stadium will emit a mushroom cloud bigger than whatever Oak Ridge can produce.
Tennessee 60
Chattanooga 13
COLORADO STATE at TEXAS
Don’t look now, but the Rams are a probable bowl team. This is a fairly veteran outfit coached by Jay Norvell, who has a lot of admirers. It’s an important season for Norvell, because the CSU program is seen as being on the cusp of stepping up in stature and will need good showings against teams like Texas to make their case. It’s unlikely the Rams have what it takes to knock off one of the most talented rosters in the SEC, but it’s also a pretty safe bet that Steve Sarkisian is having to figure out new and inventive ways to get the Longhorn players to focus on an opener like this rather than a game against more dangerous quarry. Texas should get a comfortable win, but we don’t see a blowout.
Texas 38
Colorado St. 23
NOTRE DAME at TEXAS A&M
It would be a fairly big task for Notre Dame to come into Kyle Field and pull off this upset, but that’s what we are thinking will happen. Notre Dame has been able to weather the storms that have come with a changing college football landscape, while Texas A&M is still reeling a bit from the Jimbo Fisher debacle. The Aggies should be in a better spot long-term under Mike Elko, but there are too many questions for now on defense and along the offensive line to expect Elko to hit the jackpot in his first few pulls. An Aggie win wouldn’t be a surprise, necessarily. But it just doesn’t feel like they’re ready yet.
Notre Dame 27
Texas A&M 24
VIRGINIA TECH at VANDERBILT
There is probably no FBS team as veteran as the Hokies, which return a whopping 19 starters on offense and defense, almost unheard of in the modern age of roster movement. This game shouldn’t be particularly close. Our early analysis of Vanderbilt is that the Commodores are simply a bad team. This is not the opener they need to get some confidence under their belt, especially not with the makeover of the offensive style, which is an audacious task by itself. The Hokies are becoming a steady force again under Brent Pry. This could get ugly.
Virginia Tech 40
Vanderbilt 10
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN