13. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-8, 1-7, tie-13th overall)
QB: Fr
RB: Av
WR: Fr
OL: Pr
—
DL: Pr
LB: Av
DB: Fr
ST: Av
Offense: What could go right
The Gamecocks brought in RB Raheim “Rocket” Sanders from Arkansas, and the Gamecock offense immediately became better because of it. The question is going to be how much gas Sanders has in the tank, because he’s going to get every carry the Gamecocks can feed him. In 2023, Mario Anderson led the team with 707 yards and a 4.9-per-carry average; his backups averaged 2.4, 2.4 and 2.1 yards per tote, so Sanders is an obvious upgrade. South Carolina went out and got three transfer wide receivers over the offseason, but they’re all from smaller schools. The most intriguing was Nevada’s Dalevon Campbell, who is tall (6’3”) and big (230) and should be a mismatch against some corners. The tight end combo of Joshua Simon and Brady Hunt looks promising.
Offense: What could go wrong
OL metrics for the Gamecocks stunk. In addition to putting up the 126th-ranked rushing offense in the country, South Carolina ranked 118th in sacks allowed – despite having QB Spencer Rattler doing magic tricks in the backfield – and 124th in tackles for loss allowed. Thus, having four starters return is not an advantage. There are questions at center and right tackle; Vershon Lee will play one of those spots, but which one? Torricelli Simpkins III was brought in from Coastal Carolina to handle snapping duties but it doesn’t look like he’ll stick. He did make the all-name team, however. And then, there’s the quarterback issue: It’s either going to be Auburn transfer Robby Ashford, who is a great runner but just a borderline passer, or freshman LaNorris Sellers. Sellers played sparingly in 2023 and completed all four of the passes he attempted, but this will be a trial by fire behind a line that just doesn’t have what it takes.
Defense: What could go right
It’s going to be a case of trying to draw to an inside straight, but what will make this unit either work or not will be improvement in the defensive line – and specifically, whether true freshman DE Dylan Stewart, a 5-star recruit, will emerge with a job. South Carolina is trying to temper expectations – Stewart didn’t even appear on some early depth charts – but the fact is, there’s nothing in front of him with his same potential. USC was 101st in sacks and 113th in tackles for loss in 2023, with DT T.J. Sanders being the only returning lineman to put up decent stats behind the line of scrimmage. Perhaps as a sign of good depth, Sanders emerged from spring behind a freshman, Tonka Hemingway. Florida State transfer DE Gilber Edmond and Georgia Tech transfer DE Kyle Kennard hope to add some punch from outside. LB Debo Williams is a legitimate star in the making.
Defense: What could go wrong
If the line doesn’t improve, both inside and off the edge, there won’t be much to talk about. Pitt transfer DT DeAndre Jules and Alabama transfer Monkell Goodwine are being counted upon to shore up the tackle spots. South Carolina needs to find someone to go with Williams at linebacker; none of the other candidates had numbers even remotely close to Williams’ production last year. The biggest issue of all is the secondary. It took an on-the-fly redesign of the defense mid-year to even bring things to a semi-respectable level. South Carolina ended the season 99th in raw pass defense but did much better in efficiency defense, ranking 59th. Four starters out of the five positions return, but depth is an issue and the Gamecocks mostly swung and missed in the portal there.
One-sentence summary: One of the SEC’s try-hards has heart, but not enough juice.
Poor line play will get a team killed in the SEC, and South Carolina is infected with it on both sides of the ball. Shane Beamer was able to attract some degree of help in recruiting, but it’s not going to be enough to turn the ship around in one year. The question then becomes how long he’ll be allowed to stay while he tries to fix the problem – if it can be fixed at all in the modern SEC.
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-9, 0-8, tie-15th overall)
QB: Fr
RB: Av
WR: Av
OL: Fr
—
DL: Fr
LB: Fr
DB: Fr
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
It’s going to depend on Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green, but the wild card here of course is that former Arkansas head coach Bob Petrino has returned to be the team’s offensive coordinator. Petrino may have been a bit of a mess as a head coach, but his ability to develop quarterbacks and his feel for playcalling have never been in doubt. Green is a larger (albeit not quite as agile) version of K.J. Jefferson, who transferred out. Green needs to work on his accuracy and needs to seriously improve his TD-to-INT ratio, which is far too close to even for anyone’s liking. But he’ll give Arkansas the same kind of threat it had with Jefferson, at least. RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, a Utah transfer, is a massive back (6’2”, 235) that adds some inside pop to a running game that desperately needed it. The wide receiver corps has good upside, and Luke Hasz is a weapon at tight end.
Offense: What could go wrong
The offensive line was one of the worst in FBS in 2023, as Arkansas ranked 126th in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed. The Razorbacks lost three starters from that group and looks to replace them all with transfers: Tennessee’s Addison Nichols, San Jose State’s Fernando Carmona and Michigan State’s Keyshawn Blackstock. Time will tell if Arkansas can get five pieces to fit together better than it did last year. RB Rashod Dubinion is coming off a poor season and needs to turn his production around. Arkansas also needs to focus on the small things, like cutting penalties and turnovers. The Razorbacks looked shockingly ill-coached for most of the 2023 season, which no one expected. Bringing Petrino back as offensive coordinator may or may not help, but the whole situation just feels weird given his prior history in Fayetteville.
Defense: What could go right
There are sparks of quality at all three levels – Landon Jackson at defensive end, Georgia transfer Xavian Sorey Jr. at inside linebacker, Hudson Clark at safety – it’s just that Arkansas needs more of them. If tackles Eric Gregory and Cameron Ball can provide better pressure up the middle, Sorey is capable of cleaning up the trash. If new corner starters Jaylon Braxton and Kee’yon Stewart can play up to their potential, it will allow the veteran safeties to patrol more freely. Arkansas only signed one recruit higher than a 3-star last year, but that player, DE Charleston Collins, is expected to contribute early. Sam Pittman has done his best to infuse optimism into the defense, but it’s going to take some proof of concept for the players to really believe.
Defense: What could go wrong
Grab a pencil and paper, start making a list. There’s just a general step down in talent across the board with this team, but the problem is more widespread on defense. The returning interior DL just didn’t make enough plays last year; a lot of production was then lost to graduation and transfer. The linebacker group is built completely around the addition of Sorey, so if something were to happen to him, the consequences could be catastrophic. Arkansas did well in limiting passing yardage allowed (32nd) – especially given the disastrous results of the 2022 season – but still yielded too many big plays and posted a ranking of 91st in pass efficiency defense. The Hogs are also replacing both kickers – again, with transfers.
One-sentence summary: This feels like Sam Pittman’s swan song.
Arkansas needs to improve upon the 4-8 record of a year ago, but the early schedule is brutal and doesn’t get much better as the year moves along. Many fans are already calling for the re-installation of Petrino as head coach, and those calls will grow even louder if fans perceive continued issues with areas of Pittman’s primary coaching discipline, such as offensive line play. Pittman also has generally failed to elevate Arkansas’ recruiting, which absolutely must be done. It just seems as if this program is slipping into a state of perpetual insignificance.
15. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7, 1-7, tie-13th overall)
QB: Av
RB: Av
WR: Av
OL: Fr
—
DL: Fr
LB: Fr
DB: Fr
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
It’s almost not fair to make a statement such as this, but if Mississippi State wants to have any chance to put up a respectable record and develop some momentum in recruiting, QB Blake Shapen, a Baylor transfer, needs to be the real deal. Shapen put up good numbers in less than a full 2023 season but he isn’t going to have the supporting cast around him, particularly on the line, that he has been used to. If he is able to repeat his Waco numbers, though, all bets are off. Mississippi State has surrounded him with a talented collection of (mostly transfer) wide receivers, and also added Utah State RB Davon Booth to the mix, creating some real depth at tailback.
Offense: What could go wrong
If you thought former head coach Jackie Sherrill liked transfers, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet: MSU projects 10 of its 11 offensive starters to be former transfers, and fitting all those pieces together won’t be done overnight. The offensive line is a patchwork of either small-school transfers or guys that have been slow to make a move into the spotlight. The tight end position will come down to either Seydou Traore, who sat out the 2023 season, or Vanderbilt transfer Justin Ball. Mississippi State had subpar numbers overall on offense in 2023, but it’s hard to project last year to this because it’s literally a clean slate – no starters return from a year ago. However, the general talent deficiencies that plagued the Bulldogs under Will Arnett didn’t abate with the use of the transfer portal. Jeff Lebby has brought an aggressive posture to the job since taking over, but he probably doesn’t have enough pieces yet to really pose a threat.
Defense: What could go right
Basically, a lot of rolls of the transfer dice are going to have to hit. Whereas on offense, Mississippi State was able to add to some useful returning pieces … on defense, the Bulldogs are replacing nearly all of their defensive production and doing it in the middle of a coaching change besides. The leading returning tackler is the ninth guy on the 2023 list, linebacker J.P. Purvis, with 39, and he isn’t guaranteed to start in 2024. If Purdue transfer Sulaiman Kpaka and North Carolina transfer Kedrick Bingley-Jones can provide some punch inside, it could change the complexion of the rest of the defense. Both Kpaka and Bingley-Jones are big defensive tackles with length. There is enough returning experience in the linebacker and DB areas to make transfer contributions a little less necessary, but South Carolina transfer LB Stone Blanton is the exception, as the Bulldogs need him to lock up an inside linebacker spot. Blanton was productive for the Gamecocks.
Defense: What could go wrong
If anything, MSU didn’t get enough transfers along the defensive line. The Bulldogs ranked 68th in tackles for loss last year and were 51st against the run – not terrible numbers, but not the numbers of a SEC contender, either, and the front may not change much over last year. Pass defense numbers last year were mixed – decent in raw pass defense, poor in pass efficiency defense – so the pressure is on three transfers who are expected to start, including at both cornerback slots. The kicking game needs to get better, and the coverage units both need attention. The Bulldogs also need to find a way to create more turnovers compared to a year ago.
One-sentence summary: Lebby is the long play, but will MSU give him the time?
Lebby understands the importance of recruiting, but for Mississippi State it also comes down to the size and depth of its NIL pool. The Bulldogs did better than expected in recruiting this past cycle, but they’ll need to do even better going forward, because there’s no way to achieve success while depending so widely on the transfer portal every year. Lebby has been making pitches to skill position players across the Southeast, who are taking a wait-and-see attitude given all the turmoil in Starkville over the past two years. Getting off to a good start and getting some momentum will be crucial.
16. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10, 0-8, tie-15th overall)
QB: Fr
RB: Fr
WR: Fr
OL: Pr
—
DL: Pr
LB: Fr
DB: Fr
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
Clark Lea is pulling out all the stops in an attempt to save his job. Chief among those is a QB-RB combination, Diego Pavia and Jamoni Jones, who were teammates at New Mexico State, where new offensive coordinator Tim Beck was at previously. There’s going to be a hyper-focus on running the football now, controlling the clock and trying to shorten games. Pavia is a sparkplug who will compete with Nate Johnson for the starting job, a competition that might spill over into the season. While Vanderbilt lost a ton of production from its wide receiver room after the transfer portal got done with its visit to Nashville, the Commodores were able to go out and refill their cup, somewhat. Big Loic Fouonji (6’4”, 225), a Texas Tech transfer, will join holdovers Junior Sherrill and Quincy Skinner as likely starters. Ole Miss’ Jeremiah Dillon also signed up, as did ULM’s Darlyan Wiley. If Cole Spence can stay healthy at tight end, he adds another dimension to the offense.
Offense: What could go wrong
Raiding New Mexico State for talent and offensive design probably wasn’t on many people’s dance cards over the offseason, but what will stop it from being successful isn’t that the new ideas are coming from New Mexico State, it’s that they’re being run behind an offensive line that is borderline gruesome. Vanderbilt was 81st in sacks allowed and 72nd in tackles for loss allowed, and then watched as more players left via the portal. The biggest question, though, is whether Beck’s ideas on spacing, pre-snap motion and playing a quick/strong concept on the offensive line — a concept seen mostly in wishbone-style sets — are going to hold up in the SEC. There’s also no running game to speak of; returning starter Sedrick Alexander averaged less than 4 yards per carry in 2023.
Defense: What could go right
Vanderbilt usually fields good secondaries and this one should be decently good. Pass efficiency defense ranked just 119th last year and raw pass defense clocked in at 126th, but the Commodores expect improvement. Eastern Washington’s Marlon Jones Jr. and TCU’s Randon Fontenette, a safety with good size, join returning starters Tyson Russell and C.J. Taylor. Taylor has been named to several preseason watchlists and is probably the best player on the team. If Vanderbilt can get De’Rickey Wright to have a bounceback year, the safety tandem could be one of the better ones in the league. Vandy also adds Dontae Carter at safety, who was arguably the top recruit the Commodores have signed in years. Vanderbilt also hopes to build around MLB Langston Patterson, who flashed at times in 2023.
Defense: What could go wrong
The Commodores didn’t get to quarterbacks (101st in sacks) and were only slightly viable against the run (104th in rushing defense, 75th in tackles for loss) in 2023 – and the ‘Dores didn’t really upgrade the talent level up front, beyond getting Purdue DE Khordae Sydnor. The rest will have to simply improve over last year, and the starting cast on the line will be all new. Expect struggles. Vandy needs someone to step up alongside Patterson at linebacker, and cornerback play has to get more aggressive, which is why Jones was picked up, even if he did hail from a lower-division school. The kicking game could struggle early while new kickers get acclimated.
One-sentence summary: Unfortunately, more of the same in Nashville.
The transfer portal is going to make continuity and development at a place like Vanderbilt almost nonexistent. The unfortunate truth to the 2024 Commodore team is that it’s going to be difficult to even get through a non-conference schedule that is made up of Virginia Tech, Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State without losing not only once, but twice or even more. How patient Vanderbilt brass wants to be with Clark Lea, no one can say. But a second straight 2-10 season will certainly grease the rails for his exit.