9. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6, 2-6, tie-10th overall)
QB: Av
RB: Av
WR: Vg
OL: Av
—
DL: Av
LB: Vg
DB: Av
ST: Av
Offense: What could go right
The wide receiver group figures to be one of the better ones in the conference, thanks to the return of Barion Brown and Dane Key. Despite Kentucky having a rather pedestrian offense in 2023 – especially given that its quarterback, Devin Leary, ended up an NFL draft pick – Brown and Key are weapons and can both break a game open. Jordan Dingle and Josh Kattus both have plenty of experience at tight end, although Kattus has been absent from recent fall camp work. Opposing defenses won’t be able to ignore the receivers and tight ends while focusing on shutting down the run. Quarterback is sort of a boom-bust proposition, as Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff is going to get every opportunity to show he is as good as his prep pedigree predicted. Rutgers transfer Gavin Wimsatt and holdover Beau Allen give Kentucky good depth here but playmaking ability will tell the tale. The offensive line returns four starters and the fifth will be heralded Tennessee transfer Gerald Mincey. Kentucky also likes what it has in Ohio State transfer RB DeaMonte Trayanum.
Offense: What could go wrong
The offensive line, while experienced, is pretty milquetoast compared to other SEC lines, and needs to do a better job both protecting the quarterback and opening running lanes. While Kentucky is excited to see what Trayanum brings at running back, depth is a question mark, with only Demie Sumo-Karngbaye having any kind of previous experience. And as much excitement as there is surrounding Vandagriff at quarterback, he is unproven. His predecessor also came to Kentucky with a lot of hype surrounding his transfer, but ultimately underachieved. The thought of it happening again is certainly stuck in the back of a lot of Cats fans’ minds.
Defense: What could go right
DT Deone Walker may be the best interior lineman in the conference. He is hard to move and can pretty much stop an interior running game by himself. Kentucky improved the situation behind him at linebacker, too, bringing in Jamon Dumas-Johnson from Georgia to go with returning starters J.J. Weaver and D’Eryk Jackson. All are seniors, as is top reserve Daveren Rayner. Kentucky made several moves to bolster the secondary, bringing in Michigan CB D.J. Waller and Alabama S Kristian Story. Waller, a huge guy to be playing the outside (6’3”, 210) will have to prove he is flexible enough to handle the spot in the SEC; many projected him to land with a team needing a safety. The entire defensive starting lineup will be juniors or seniors.
Defense: What could go wrong
Kentucky was strong against the run (17th nationally) but pass defense was a different matter. The Wildcats finished 92nd in raw pass defense and 87th in efficiency defense, hence the additions of Waller and Story. The problem wasn’t just in the secondary; the defensive line outside of Walker, while experienced, was inconsistent at times, and Kentucky was one of the worst teams in FBS in red zone defense (118th). NT Josaih Hayes will apparently miss most or all of the season with an injury, further putting pressure on the line. Hayes was expected to start over 2023 returning starter Keeshawn Silver. Kentucky also lost freshman NT Tavion Gadson for the year, making depth even that more questionable. Octavious Oxendine, who has primarily been an outside player in his career, will likely be forced inside to compensate. If Kentucky can’t get good line play, the back end of the defense just isn’t talented enough to make up the gap.
One-sentence summary: As usual, the Wildcats will be in the fight, but might not have enough to win it.
The entirety of Mark Stoops’ tenure with Kentucky has been a story of getting a chance to ask the prom queen out, but finding out she just met Prince Charming five minutes before. While Kentucky improved itself through the transfer portal, so did just about everyone else on its tier. This one is going to come down to QB Brock Vandagriff. If he’s the real deal, perhaps he can generate some long-running excitement around the program. The schedule is not the easiest, however.
10. Auburn Tigers (8-4, 4-4, 9th overall)
QB: Fr
RB: Vg
WR: Av
OL: Av
—
DL: Vg
LB: Av
DB: Av
ST: Ex
Offense: What could go right
Between an improved offensive line and the return of both top running backs from 2023, Auburn should be able to control the game pace – so long as Hugh Freeze can resist the temptation to play at a faster pace than he should. RB Jarquez Hunter has become a weapon, and Auburn would be wise to use him as much as he can stand. The offensive line will end up telling the tale of the 2024 season, and to that end the Tigers added Mississippi State’s Percy Lewis at left tackle. Auburn looks like it will be more solid on the outside in 2024 than it was in 2023, something that should make QB Payton Thorne happy as he tries to avoid being run over by opposing edge rushers. And while we usually mention the kicking game under the defense, Auburn’s ability to score points in the kicking game with PK Alex McPherson should be considered more of a weapon than a fallback when a drive stalls.
Offense: What could go wrong
With one exception, the offensive line depth chart is either seniors or freshmen. That means that if the line isn’t vastly improved from 2023, it’s unlikely that help will be available simply by reshuffling the names. The addition of a pair of transfer wide receivers (Robert Lewis, KeAndre Lambert-Smith) should help stabilize this unit, which is depending heavily on true freshmen otherwise, but the fact remains that 8 of the expected top 10 wideouts weren’t in the program last year. The biggest concern of all, though, is Thorne at quarterback. He wasn’t the player Auburn thought it was getting in 2023, and this year there’s no experienced backup – Robby Ashford transferred to South Carolina, leaving freshman Hank Brown in the No. 2 spot – in the event Thorne struggles. Outside of his scrambling ability, Thorne showed virtually no SEC-level skills last year, and it was no coincidence that the Tigers ranked 121st in passing offense.
Defense: What could go right
Auburn’s defense was more effective last season than the raw statistics suggested, especially against the run. The Tigers are poised to take a collective step forward under new coordinators D.J. Durkin and Charles Kelly provided the defensive line improves its consistency a bit. Auburn will lean heavily on transfers, with Texas A&M’s Isaiah Raikes expected to nail down the middle along with returning senior Jayson Jones. Outside rushers Keldric Faulk and Jalen McLeod are expected to boost their 2023 numbers and become an even bigger force in the pass rush than they had been previously. The linebacker group as a whole is athletic and has plenty of experience. The addition of safety Jerrin Thompson from Texas appears to be paying immediate dividends.
Defense: What could go wrong
Even with the addition of Thompson, the defensive backfield has to get better in order for Auburn to contend. Auburn was a decent 31st in raw defense in 2023 but could only muster a ranking of 62nd in pass efficiency defense. Still, the Tigers were able to a lot of the small things well, including intercept passes and be strong in red zone defense. Whether the new defensive scheme allows for continued improvement in those areas is in question, however, as Durkin comes to Auburn with some baggage and Kelly’s resume portrays a better recruiter than tactical coach. Auburn could also feasibly start the season with a second team made up entirely of transfers, so growing pains and issues with new schematic fit are expected to some degree.
One-sentence summary: Improvement is coming – by increments – but will QB play doom AU?
The schedule is favorable outside of a three-game stretch (Oklahoma-Georgia-Missouri) starting Sept. 28, and then the season close of Texas A&M followed by Alabama. Outside of that, Auburn figures to be strong favorites in all of its other games save for Kentucky. Improving upon 2023’s results by a game or two would send a signal that the program is on its way up, but to do so, Auburn will have to rely on old-school concepts: defense and a running game, and hope the quarterback doesn’t give the game away. It remains to be seen whether Hugh Freeze is suited to such an approach.
11. Oklahoma Sooners (6-6, 2-6, tie-10th overall)
QB: Av
RB: Av
WR: Vg
OL: Fr
—
DL: Av
LB: Vg
DB: Fr
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
There is reason to be optimistic regarding the wide receiver group that returns seniors Jalil Farooq and Andrel Anthony and adds transfer Deion Burks from Purdue. But the real potential breakout star is sophomore Nic Anderson, who caught 10 touchdown passes last year and averaged 21 yards per reception. If that wasn’t enough, junior Jayden Gibson caught 14 passes for an eye-popping 375 yards (26.8 avg.) and 5 touchdowns; in other words, the depth chart there is stacked. Only some questions at tight end keep the receiver unit from being ranked more highly. Elsewhere, RB Gavin Sawchuk is a decent option at running back, although Oklahoma needs a better backup than what Jovantae Barnes was able to provide last year. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism is the addition of Seth Littrell as offensive coordinator, as he is viewed as a keen offensive mind and developer of quarterbacks.
Offense: What could go wrong
Oklahoma doesn’t know what it has yet in QB Jackson Arnold, who had a rough finish to his 2023 season after taking over for Dillon Gabriel. Arnold has good running ability, but needs to cut down on turnovers. The backup situation isn’t great; Florida Atlantic transfer Casey Thompson would have to prove he’s capable on an SEC level, and everyone else is a freshman. The far greater concern, though, is offensive line: No starters return, and transfers are being counted upon to start at a minimum of three positions. The transfers are coming from places like North Texas and SMU, so there’s also a question of quality. Early returns from fall camp have the offense regularly stifled by the OU defense, which wasn’t exactly a dominating force last year.
Defense: What could go right
The linebacker group is probably the strength of the defense. Oklahoma returns both inside starters, who finished 1-2 on the team’s tackle list last year. Senior Danny Stutsman finished the year with 104 stops, 3 sacks and an interception, leading the second-ranking tackler, Kip Lewis, by 38 tackles. This unit is deep and knows how to make plays. The defensive line could go either way and a lot depends on TCU transfer Damonic Williams, who has a nosetackle’s build but who is quick enough to play away from the A-gaps. Oklahoma ranked 42nd in rushing defense last year but was 6th in tackles for loss, and Williams is expected to bolster those numbers. The secondary has a lot of experience and the Sooners added physical corner Dez Malone from San Diego State to the mix. The kicking game should be solid.
Defense: What could go wrong
Overall, Oklahoma had trouble getting to the quarterback in 2023; the Sooners ranked just 86th in sacks. This, in turn, probably had a lot to do with a ranking of 109th in raw pass defense – although Oklahoma did much better in pass efficiency defense, ranking 17th. The real question on this side of the ball is, while Oklahoma has so many returning starters on the roster, does that mean anything given the erratic and often mediocre results the Sooner defense put up? Also, how will Oklahoma fare in the much tougher SEC with this defense? Early returns in fall camp have been positive, but it will take a few weeks to know for sure. For now, it’s imperative that the secondary continue to improve and for OU to find a better pass rush.
One-sentence summary: An inaugural season in the SEC is a bad time to have a rebuilding year.
Oklahoma finished 2023 with a 10-3 record but it’s hard to plot a path back to that number in the face of an SEC schedule. The Sooners get seven quality league games on their initial schedule – only South Carolina looks like a definitive win – and even a couple of the out-of-conference games aren’t pushovers. Sooners fans (and analysts alike) are trying to determine whether the defense is really that good, or if the offense is in trouble … or both?
12. Florida Gators (4-8, 2-6, 12th overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Av
WR: Av
OL: Fr
—
DL: Pr
LB: Av
DB: Fr
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
QB Graham Mertz can’t really do everything itself, but he’s pretty much going to have to try. Mertz is the only sure-fire playmaker the Gators really have, and while he’s not going to be the guy to put up 500 yards every week, he was exceptionally consistent and efficient last year despite everything else sort of disintegrating around him. The talent isn’t bad at the skill positions, but the output needs to improve. Running back Montrell Johnson is the most pedestrian starter the Gators have had at the spot in some time, but he may yet have potential to improve. So too does backup Treyaun Webb. The receiver room has the most upside; Kahleil Jackson and Eugene Wilson both put up good catch numbers last year but – especially in Jackson’s case – the average-per-catch numbers have to go up drastically for both players. If you’re looking for a darkhorse star, pick TE Arlis Boardingham, who seems to have the “it” factor.
Offense: What could go wrong
The offense line was just a small step above poor in 2023. Florida had the 77th-ranked rushing offense in the country, and that was with Trevor Etienne on the roster. Florida also finished 114th in sacks allowed and 106th in tackles for loss allowed. If that sounds like an indictment of the offensive line, it is. The Gators are going to be leaning heavily on a San Diego State transfer, T Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, to save the day. Former Alabama transfer G Damieon George Jr. is massive, but still has footwork issues. Florida needs help either from former Arkansas transfer Devon Manuel or a part-time starter in 2023, Knijeah Harris, at guard. There are issues with depth at running back and explosiveness at receiver, but Florida could make the most gains (or suffer the most losses) by a change in performance up front.
Defense: What could go right
If the linebacker group can get something out of South Carolina transfer Pup Howard to go with returning starter Shemar James, it might have something at the second level. There’s been a lot of focus in Gainesville on developing the linebacker pool and James has the talent to pull it off. Florida was able to attract Washington transfer S Asa Turner, who brings plus size and a hitter’s resume as a centerfield safety. The kicking game should be a strength, particularly the punting and coverage units.
Defense: What could go wrong
Florida was net-negative in the transfer portal on defense, losing several players it simply couldn’t afford to lose. The problem is most likely to show up in an already problematic defensive line, which lost key starters – DE Princely Umanmielen, who had a third of the team’s sacks, went to Ole Miss – and then lost valuable depth in fall camp when Jamari Lyons went down for the year with an ankle injury. Florida ranked 79th against the run, 92nd in sacks and 104th in tackles for loss in 2023. The secondary, which ranked 70th in raw pass defense and 108th in pass efficiency defense, needed more than just Turner. Turner’s backup is D.J. Douglas, who was a walk-on at Alabama before transferring to Tulane and then Gainesville. New starting DT Joey Slackman was most recently at Penn. There’s a lot to watch on this side of the ball, and most of it isn’t good.
One-sentence summary: The SEC’s hottest seat belongs to Billy Napier, with good reason.
This Florida team should serve as a warning to other SEC contenders that winning forever is far from guaranteed. The talent just isn’t here. This isn’t your grandfather’s Florida team (Steve Spurrier), nor is it your father’s Florida team (Urban Meyer). It’s a middle-of-the-road outfit that has a dozen or so interesting pieces, but not enough depth or continuity. And Napier is coaching while looking over his shoulder – not a good combination. Florida fans are counting down the minutes until the end of the season and, according to many observers, ultimately the pursuit of Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin.