5. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, 6-2, tie-6th overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Av
WR: Vg
OL: Vg
—
DL: Ex
LB: Av
DB: Fr
ST: Av
Offense: What could go right
All eyes are on new QB Nico Iamaleava, who is a better fit for this offense than was Joe Milton III, a pro-style devotee currently tearing up spring camp with the New England Patriots. Iamaleava is the guy Josh Heupel has been wanting to get to for a year now, and he is a true dual-threat QB with an almost unlimited ceiling. His comp is Tua Tagovailoa and not just because both are from the western United States. The wide receiver group may be actually undervalued. Bru McCoy is a walking sack of potential, one of the most physical wideouts in the conference. Squirrel White was one of the SEC’s most productive slots in 2023 and can be dangerous as an outside receiver as well. If LSU transfer Lance Heard can solidify the left tackle spot, the offensive line could be special. Tennessee was 9th nationally in rushing offense in 2023 and a little better than average at preventing sacks, which should improve now that Iamaleava is taking snaps rather than Milton. If Heupel can maintain his composure as a playcaller when things go a bit sideways, Tennessee has a good chance to finish the year with the SEC’s most productive offense.
Offense: What could go wrong
UT will enter the season with Gaston Moore as the backup to Iamaleava, and the gap between those two is a chasm. If Iamaleava misses any significant amount of time, Tennessee will have to compress the playbook. The “if” regarding Lance Heard is a big one because the alternative is that Tennessee will have to do everything important behind the right side of the line. Dayne Davis was the only upperclassman to finish spring in the OL two-deep. Starting RB Dylan Sampson looks like a good option, but the question here and at wide receiver both is depth. Cameron Seldon, Thompson’s backup, didn’t exactly flash in 2023. The Volunteers also desperately need someone to step up alongside McCoy and White and allow White to get out from the slot and move around the formation. Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell needs to prove he can get it done against SEC defenses. There is talent at tight end but precious little experience. The entire returning three-deep at that spot combined for 2 catches in 2023.
Defense: What could go right
It’s all about what’s up front. Tennessee will be incredibly dynamic off the edge with James Pearce Jr. leading the way. The Vols were 8th nationally in sacks last year and the personnel is largely the same. There’s minor concern at the end spot opposite Pearce, but Dominic Bailey and Tyre West are both quality players and the competition should make both better. Tennessee was also 4th nationally in tackles for loss, and good DL play usually portends good things once the season gets cranked up. The linebacker group has a lot of potential but it’s going to be mostly new faces here, and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on BYU transfer Keenan Pili to prove he can play at this level.
Defense: What could go wrong
If Pili isn’t the answer at MLB, the job will fall to either Jeremiah Telander or Kalib Perry, who are good tacklers but not particularly dynamic in this scheme. Special teams could be an issue if Josh Turbyville isn’t ready to be the placekicker and/or the return game can’t be rebuilt after the loss of Dee Williams. But the major concern on this side of the ball is the secondary. No starters returned, and the transfer portal claimed almost a dozen defensive backs. On top of that, expected starter at Star safety, Jourdan Thomas, was lost early in camp to what looks like a season-ending leg injury. Inbound transfers will make up the bulk of the secondary while freshman Boo Carter will probably wind up replacing Thomas at Star. Tennessee’s pass defense was already suspect heading into the season (54th in pass efficiency defense, 64th in raw pass defense in 2023) and then someone pushed the transfer alarm bell. The defensive line will have to work overtime to keep the heat off the young DBs.
One-sentence summary: Lots of fireworks incoming, but sometimes explosions aren’t good.
Unless Tennessee is able to buy defensive linemen every offseason, this could be the best chance the Vols have to contend for a few years, even with a freshman quarterback at the helm. An elite defensive line will let Tennessee get away with a lot of mistakes, but if the secondary can’t come together quickly, it might not matter. Heupel will need to develop reliable safety valves for Iamaleava, especially behind him in the formation at running back. Tennessee will be capable of winning every game it plays, but could be vulnerable in several games. The schedule, overall, is manageable.
6. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2, 7-1, 4th overall)
QB: Av
RB: Fr
WR: Vg
OL: Av
—
DL: Vg
LB: Av
DB: Fr
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
Texas A&M doesn’t really know what it has in QB Connor Weigman – or any of its quarterbacks, really – because injuries didn’t allow the Aggies to ever develop consistency there under Jimbo Fisher’s run. When Weigman was able to play, he was arguably the best out of a group of four that includes current backups Jaylen Henderson and Marcel Reed. Weigman isn’t the first guy you think about when the phrase “dual-threat” comes out, but he scrambles well and has a good feel for when to run. Wide receiver will be the strength of the offense early, with Moose Muhammad poised for a breakout year. Again, it will depend on who is throwing them the ball, and how well. There is strength at tight end, and could be strength on the offensive line as well provided the new staff under Mike Elko do a better job of developing them.
Offense: What could go wrong
The running back group was borderline awful in 2023 and losing Reuben Owens to a leg injury in fall camp doesn’t help. Le’Veon Moss, who is now the likely starter, has never lived up to his prep billing. Amari Daniels led the team in rushing in 2023, but didn’t really stand out. A lot will be riding on a couple of transfers at receiver, Iowa’s Jacob Bostick and Louisiana Tech’s Cyrus Allen. The other major headache could be the right side of the line, particularly right tackle, where there are a collection of underwhelming veterans like Reuben Fatheree and Dametrious Crownover competing. It’s good that Texas A&M has three quarterbacks with experience on the roster, because the Aggies might need all of them.
Defense: What could go right
The front seven is likely to be solid, especially the defensive line, and good DL play goes a long way in the SEC no matter what is happening behind it. There’s one bona fide superstar (DT Shemar Turner) and the supporting cast of Albert Regis, D.J. Hicks and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy all have good ability. If there are issues, it will be at end, where Shemar Stewart and a transfer from Purdue (Nic Scourton) and Bowling Green (Cashius Howell) are holding down the fort. Texas A&M was strong against the run in 2023 (13th nationally) but lost just enough to the transfer portal and graduation up front that this situation will bear watching. Linebacker could be really strong if Florida transfer Scooby Williams can get the job done on the weakside. Taurean York, one of A&M’s best prospects regardless of position, will get the middle linebacker assignment.
Defense: What could go wrong
The ranking of 13th in rush defense allowed A&M to put up a ranking of 19th in total defense, thanks in no part to a secondary that may not even be as good as it was a year ago. A&M is going to build around Bryce Anderson, who appears to project at nickel safety (for now), but the supporting cast, especially on the outside, is a potential problem spot. Alabama transfer Dezz Ricks, who was running fourth team in Tuscaloosa, may wind up starting opposite Tyreek Chappell at corner. His competition is B.J. Mayes, late of UAB. Kansas State transfer Will Lee has the size for the job, but the jump to SEC ball is a big one. There are some depth concerns at linebacker, but the other big issue is the kicking game. A freshman (Tyler White) is set to take over at punter, and PK Randy Bond needs to take a step up. The return game has to be rebuild, and kickoff returns were a major item of concern last year.
One-sentence summary: Manageable schedule will help a team trying to find a new groove.
Mike Elko’s reputation varies a bit but if anything is a sure thing with him, it will be that he finds a way to get the Aggies to move on from the oddball fit that was Jimbo Fisher. The Aggie program seems to be at its best when headed by a defensive coach, anyway; it’s just the culture. Elko gets a big first test when Notre Dame comes to town on Aug. 31, but the Aggies won’t really be tested again until early October, and there are only four or five games on the whole schedule that look close at the moment. Keeping Weigman healthy is priority one, and getting a secondary that resembles something other than a group of jogging beheaded chickens is next on the list, followed by the right side of the offensive line and the running back group.
7. Missouri Tigers (10-2, 6-2, tie-6th overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Fr
WR: Ex
OL: Av
—
DL: Av
LB: Av
DB: Av
ST: Fr
Offense: What could go right
Anything to do with the passing offense, Missouri should be successful at it. QB Brady Cook put up numbers not dissimilar from better-known SEC quarterbacks like Jaxson Dart and Carson Beck last year, but for some reason, when it happens at Missouri it’s because of the “system.” Whatever the case, Cook is an accurate, athletic passer and has probably the best collection of wide receivers and tight ends returning at any SEC school. Luther Burden was highly coveted by Nick Saban during the recruiting process and over two years at Mizzou, has more than proven why. Burden rolled up 1,212 yards receiving in 2023, caught 9 touchdowns and made everyone around him better. Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper make up a good supporting cast, although Cooper needs to take it up a notch; he had no scores in 2023. TE Brett Norfleet is one of the best younger players at his position in the conference. The line has a lot of experience and should be especially solid on the right side.
Offense: What could go wrong
Left tackle is going to be a mystery, because Cayden Green was brought in from Oklahoma to take the spot and instead wound up at left guard. SMU Marcus Bryant and JUCO transfer Jayven Richardson are continuing to fight for the spot and it appears that fight could continue well into the season. The biggest issue of all, though, is at running back. Missouri struck transfer gold when it got a D-II player, Cody Schrader, and then watched him run roughshod over the SEC last year, often in comic fashion. This year, it’s another pair of transfers – Appalachian State’s Nate Noel, Georgia State’s Marcus Carroll – that are battling for the position. Noel appears to be the favorite, but he’s a smaller back and has already gotten dinged up a bit in camp work. The other issue is the backup QB spot, which for now is in the hands of Arizona State transfer Drew Pyne. Pyne failed to impress at ASU in 2023.
Defense: What could go right
Missouri has about half its 2023 defense returning, and put up respectable numbers in total defense (33rd) and rush defense (30th). The Tigers are going with Florida transfer Chris McClellan at the open DT position and Michigan State’s Zion Young at defensive end, filling in around NT Kristian Williams and a solid pass rusher in DE/LB Johnny Walker Jr. There’s a lot of upside here, but some mild depth concerns, although Georgia Tech transfer Eddie Kelly Jr. and top recruit DE Williams Nwaneri are expected to shore up key holes. The linebacker group also has more upside than downside, particularly in MLB Chuck Hicks. There’s now some real depth at that position, as Missouri added South Alabama transfer Khalil Jacobs to go along with veterans Triston Newson and Corey Flagg. In the secondary, safeties Joseph Charleston and Daylan Carnell return and give the Tigers a strong posture up the middle.
Defense: What could go wrong
The secondary wasn’t great against the pass in 2023, and now must replace three starters, including both corners. Transfers are expected to take both spots, but one of them, Texas A&M’s Dreyden Norwood, is coming from a worse secondary than the one he joined. Missouri hasn’t been great in red zone defense and gave up too many big plays last year, so there’s a lot of pressure on the transfers – of which there are many in this program – to provide an immediate benefit. Special teams are likely going to be an issue; freshman Blake Craig will handle placekicking, but he has been prone to fits of wildness in camp. Net punting was mediocre in 2023 and now the punting job cycles over to a new player, either veteran reserve Luke Bauer or Orion Phillips, late of Murray State.
One-sentence summary: Time for Eli Drinkwitz’s program to develop some year-to-year consistency.
A lot is riding on the arm of Brady Cook, and expectations are high thanks to the Cook-Burden tandem in the passing game. But the defense is a step below the contenders, and there are just enough question marks on the offensive line and in the backfield to make some wonder whether 2023’s 11-2 season was an anomaly, or a harbinger of the future.
8. LSU Tigers (9-3, 5-3, 8th overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Vg
WR: Vg
OL: Vg
—
DL: Fr
LB: Vg
DB: Av
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
Based solely off LSU’s bowl game win over Wisconsin, new QB Garrett Nussmeier could simply step in for the departed Jayden Daniels and the Tigers keep rolling along. It’s not that simple, of course – Nussmeier is a fraction of the out-of-pocket threat that Daniels was – but his performance against a quality team in the postseason has to count for something. What also counts for something much more important is an offensive line that may just be one piece away from being tops in the SEC. Four starters return, and as long as LSU can find a center, the Tigers will be headed in the right direction. LSU was just mediocre last year in sacks allowed (43rd), a stat highlighted by Daniels’ escapability from the pocket, but there probably isn’t another team in the conference that LSU would trade its top 5 guys to have. TE Mason Taylor could be on the verge of stardom.
Offense: What could go wrong
There are two centers on the roster and both of them are freshmen, and counting on freshmen linemen in the SEC is never a guarantee of success no matter how talented the players are. The bigger issue is whether LSU can rebuild the receiver core. Kyren Lacy was a good third option last year but must ascend to bellcow status immediately. LSU will be leaning heavily on transfers, with Mississippi State’s Zavion Thomas being counted upon to make a big impact. The Tigers finished 10th in the country last year in rushing offense, but that was a bit misleading; Daniels’ 1,134 yards rushing from the quarterback spot was almost double the output of any LSU running back. Nussmeier will be lucky to have 100 net positive yards at the end of the year, so the pressure is on Kaleb Jackson, Josh Williams and John Emery, who combined to have a tick-above-average season in 2023.
Defense: What could go right
The linebacker group has good depth and some star power in Greg Penn III and Harold Perkins Jr. The Weeks brothers, West and Whit, provide quality depth. The pass rush was decent at times in 2023, and Sai’vion Jones returns at a rush end spot. Former Oregon transfer Bradyn Swinson is a good, balanced defensive end that could be ready to make an impact. In the secondary, safeties Major Burns and Sage Ryan give LSU top-tier athleticism at those spots. There is speed all over the field, but a lot will depend on getting the many transfers into the program playing on the same page. Special teams should be solid if new P Peyton Todd develops.
Defense: What could go wrong
The line as a whole looks problematic. LSU had to hit the portal for multiple defensive tackles just to fill out a depth chart, and the holdovers (Jacobian Guillory, Shone Washington) have big question marks. Even with a better complement of players, LSU finished only 85th against the run in 2023. The secondary was also pretty bad in 2023 as a whole, and one of last year’s starters at corner (Zy Alexander) will probably open the season with the third unit. The Tigers ranked 115th in raw pass defense, 101st in efficiency defense and 105th in total defense a year ago, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Matt House and a total rethink of the system. LSU ranked 23rd in turnover margin last year, but that was due to the offense being uncommonly good at holding onto the ball. The defense ranked just 65th in interceptions and 107th in fumbles recovered, stats that need to change in order to get the defense off the field more often.
One-sentence summary: Lots of raw talent, but a stunning lack of development in 2023.
Brian Kelly is revered as one of the nation’s best head coaches but poor defense and a lack of quality control last year led to the Tigers having three losses by the end of the first week in November, and wasted a Heisman-winning season from QB Jayden Daniels. As such, Kelly’s seat is a bit warm, and LSU fans are wondering whether Georgia, Alabama and others are continuing to increase the gap. The offense will again have to carry the Tigers in 2024, making LSU both a dangerous opponent but also one prone to losing games it shouldn’t.