1. Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 8-0, 1st overall)
QB: Ex
RB: Vg
WR: Vg
OL: Ex
—
DL: Vg
LB: Vg
DB: Vg
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
Any team that returns a senior quarterback in this league has an edge on most of its competition, and when that team is the presumptive overall favorite to win the conference title already, it just ups the hype and the expectations. Carson Beck threw for nearly 4,000 yards in 2023 and he’ll have four returning starters in front of him on the offensive line. Georgia is optimistic about the talent on hand at wide receiver, and getting RB Trevor Etienne to transfer in from Florida answers a big question regarding backfield depth. Even though TE Brock Bowers is gone, Georgia has a top-tier tight end in Oscar Delp that will return. All but one offensive starter is projected to be an upperclassman, with the lone sophomore being one of Georgia’s stars of tomorrow, LT Earnest Greene.
Offense: What could go wrong
Beck protected the ball well and carried a high QB rating (167.9), but his YPA (9.5), while good, was lower than some other SEC quarterbacks and his overall game put him on the very north end of “game manager” territory. Nothing wrong with that, but with Brock Bowers and WRs Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Ladd McConkey gone, so went two of his best field-stretching receivers. Then, RaRa Thomas was kicked off the team early in fall camp, taking out the only other returning deep threat. Dillon Bell and Domonic Lovett should be able to take the next step up, but if Arian Smith can’t step into the dependable deep-threat role, there could be issues. Miami transfer Colbie Young will be under pressure to help out. The running back group is good but, for the first time in many years under Kirby Smart, not quite as explosive as it has been. The other issue is center; ask Alabama how issues at center can impact a season. Jared Wilson is the projected new starter there.
Defense: What could go right
This is also a veteran-stacked unit, especially in the front seven. Georgia was top-10 in most defensive categories last year, leading the nation in 3rd-down defense and finishing 9th in total defense. There isn’t much to suggest things will be different, especially up front. Georgia was better against the pass than the run in 2023, but that will probably flip due to new personnel in the secondary. Smart has found a way to take the 3-4 over/under concepts and be both more aggressive in the back end of the defense and also able to contain more of the areas known historically to be weaker points in the scheme. In that regard, he has actually improved a bit on what he inherited from Saban. Georgia also has added back a little beef on the corners up front and expects pass rush numbers to improve. If the secondary can be rebuilt, Georgia will be able to smother teams again in 2024.
Defense: What could go wrong
That’s a big “if” in the secondary and it assumes a lot based on the athleticism of the new starters. Georgia has lost quite a bit of talent to the NFL over the last few seasons and almost the entire second team coming out of spring were freshmen. If the defense had a soft spot last year, it was in turnover generation (69th) and if that number doesn’t improve it might put added pressure on the back end to sustain during close games. The defensive line, while solid, is more blue-collar than superstar for 2024. And the decision to use a larger edge rusher (Mykel Williams) might help from a run-containment and pass-rush standpoint but could leave Georgia open to opponents’ passing games in the flat.
One-sentence summary: Trying to find Georgia’s weaknesses is picking nits.
There isn’t a single SEC team that lacks a significant weakness somewhere … except for Georgia. Even the Bulldogs’ thinnest areas are stocked full of five-star talent and it’s just a matter of how that talent gets developed. Georgia was barely challenged in 2023 with only Alabama proving able to beat the Bulldogs, and if Georgia had gotten another shot at the College Football Playoff, the Bulldogs would probably have won the whole thing. There are several strong teams in the SEC heading into 2024, but for now, they’re all looking up at UGA.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2, 6-2, 5th overall)
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3. Texas Longhorns (10-2, 7-1, 3rd overall)
QB: Ex
RB: Av
WR: Vg
OL: Vg
—
DL: Vg
LB: Vg
DB: Av
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
Steve Sarkisian’s reputation as an offensive mastermind is one that has been proven many times over the years, and Texas is coming off an explosive season that featured fantastic schematic balance and a playcalling flow that was hard to defend. For 2024, QB Quinn Ewers returns, which will allow Sarkisian to do just about whatever he wants with the playbook. The offensive line also returns almost entirely intact, and while Texas will have to replace Jonathon Brooks at running back, Jaydon Blue looks capable but Texas will need to replace C.J. Baxter, hurt in fall camp. In addition, it appears that backup QB Arch Manning will indeed develop into a top signal-caller, meaning the transition from Ewers to the next guy up should go smoothly, whether it happens after the season or because of an injury.
Offense: What could go wrong
The line ranked just 60th in sacks allowed last year and the competition is only going to get tougher in SEC trenches. The main question for Texas fans is whether WR Xavier Worthy and his supporting cast from 2023 at receiver and tight end can be replaced. Most eyes will be on Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond, just from the standpoint of how such a high-profile transfer is going to work out, but Bond was never Alabama’s answer to a reliable possession receiver anyway, and Texas is going to need a couple of those to step forward. The entire wide receiver and tight end group, save for senior TE Gunnar Helm, are either transfers or inexperienced younger players. The most catches of any returning outside receiver is 8 for Johntay Cook. If Ewers can’t find go-to guys that he likes, it will put added pressure on Blue and Baxter at running back to prove they’re more than just useful spare parts.
Defense: What could go right
Texas was 3rd in the nation in rush defense in 2023, so the Longhorns know how to do things – the question will be whether personnel changes allow it. The pure talent available up front and in the linebacker corps will likely be enough for Texas to contain teams, but this is a defense that didn’t dominate in 2023 so much as it managed things. The pass rush was acceptable and probably the reason the Longhorns finished 15th in scoring defense despite having some issues in the secondary. The linebacker group in particular could be special if Anthony Hill is able to step up at middle linebacker.
Defense: What could go wrong
Texas ranked just 113th in raw pass defense in 2023 and the secondary didn’t exactly improve by leaps and bounds over the offseason. The other issue the Longhorns are hoping to avoid is what could become of defensive tackle thanks to departures to the NFL. Texas is about to get a lot more blue-collar up the middle, relying on transfers and former role players. Texas also lost DL coach Bo Davis, replacing him with Kenny Baker, who worked with the Miami Dolphins in 2023 after a career spent primarily at Western Kentucky and smaller schools prior to that. The Longhorns will also be breaking in a true freshman at punter.
One-sentence summary: Offense will have to carry the Longhorns until defense can jell.
In hindsight, it’s surprising that Ewers came back to Texas given the amount of unknown quantities surrounding him. Provided Texas chose wisely from its options in the transfer portal, the Longhorns should be able to refill the necessary buckets and continue to progress under another year of Sarkisian’s leadership. But there’s a lot of change going on here, the schedule difficulty goes up and Texas may have upset its roster dynamics somewhat by spending so freely on players that weren’t on the roster last year.
4. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1, 7-1, 2nd overall)
QB: Vg
RB: Av
WR: Vg
OL: Av
—
DL: Vg
LB: Av
DB: Vg
ST: Vg
Offense: What could go right
Everything, really, so long as QB Jaxson Dart stays healthy and the Rebels can lock down the situation at running back. The Rebels will have one of the most dynamic receiver groups in the conference, featuring veteran Rebels Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins and South Carolina transfer Antwane Wells Jr. Dart, like most quarterbacks coached by Lane Kiffin, has developed into an efficient and reliable signal-caller. Backup Walker Howard gives the Rebels decent depth, but Dart is what makes this unit go. Ole Miss got transfer OL Nate Kalepo from Washington and Diego Pounds from North Carolina, which should shore up a group that was oftentimes the Rebels’ weak link in 2023. The inbound transfers have allowed the line to develop some depth as well.
Offense: What could go wrong
Ole Miss lost RB Quinshon Judkins to Ohio State in a divorce that had to have been messy for the program especially given how Kiffin discovered Judkins in high school. With Judkins gone, the job will fall to Ulysses Bentley IV, a good scatback-type back but a runner who lacks the size to go up the middle against SEC defenses. Another back of similar build, Henry Parrish of Miami, will be the likely backup. If that’s the group Ole Miss chooses to use, the power inside running game is likely gone. There is also the issue of offensive tackle, where another Washington transfer, Julius Buelow, will try to help the Rebels stabilize a sketchy situation.
Defense: What could go right
It basically comes down to whether two transfers, Florida DE/LB Princely Umanmielen and Texas A&M DT Walter Nolen, can get the front up to snuff. Umanmielen wasn’t as consistent at Florida as Ole Miss needs him to be, but he’s much better than the holdover alternatives. If Nolen can stay on the field, no one will have a better anchor up the middle than the Rebels. Probably the most likely area of improvement will be the secondary, which saw Tennessee transfer Brandon Turnage and Alabama CB Trey Amos arrive in town and make the situation instantly better.
Defense: What could go wrong
Things are still thin up front, and while Nolen will have a veteran to work with at tackle, J.J. Pegues, the overall quality still isn’t up there with Alabama and Georgia. Transfers or not, improvement is also needed from the Rebels returning in the secondary, most notably safeties Trey Washington and John Saunders. There is also a lot riding on Arkansas transfer LB Chris Paul, because Ole Miss was barely competent at the second level in 2023. The Rebels were terrible in the red zone, terrible on third down and mediocre just about everywhere else.
One-sentence summary: Easy schedule should help this collection of hired guns come together.
Ole Miss won’t be challenged outside of three games: October dates against LSU and Oklahoma (with an off-week in between) and a Nov. 9 matchup with Georgia. Only the LSU game is on the road. Basically, this roster is a work study in whether the transfer portal can take everyone else’s development and relocate it to your own athletic complex. If it works, Lane Kiffin will look like a genius.