LSU Preview: Can Bama match Tigers in what may be an offensive showdown?

Prior to Alabama’s lone loss of the season, in Week 2 against Texas, the question was whether the Crimson Tide could handle itself in the event of a shootout with a superior offensive team.

Against Texas, the answer was “no.” Bama QB Jalen Milroe was picked twice, and the Alabama offense couldn’t make up the extra ground in a second half that saw the Longhorns pull away, severely damaging Alabama’s title hopes in the process.

Now comes LSU, the only other team on the Alabama schedule that has what could be considered a dynamic offense. In many ways, LSU is even more dynamic than was Texas, although the Tigers lack the sideline schemer that is Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. Alabama isn’t the same team it was against Texas, either, as the defense has come together nicely under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, and Jalen Milroe’s recent work has been more controlled and confident than the boom-bust Texas game performance.

Still, this will be a tough one to win. Neither LSU nor Alabama has ever had particular trouble in the other team’s home stadium, and LSU already has one shootout win on the road over a tough opponent (Missouri, 49-39) on its resume this year.

OFFENSE

There isn’t much in common between the two teams here, other than both quarterbacks can run. LSU runs more zone-read option action from the quarterback position, but the Tigers are also deft at executing a downfield passing game. Both teams base from a one-back, three-wide set, but that’s where the similarities mostly end. LSU has the nation’s #1 total offense and also ranks 1^st in scoring offense, a bad combination for Bama’s defense. The Tigers are 2^nd in passing efficiency, 3^rd in passing offense and 13^th in rushing. Alabama ranks 16^th in passing efficiency, but everything else pales in comparison: 50^th in scoring, 77^th in passing, 77^th in rushing, 78^th in total offense.

QUARTERBACKS
Few expected Jayden Daniels to make the kind of impact he made after transferring in from Arizona State, but he has caught fire in 2023 after a solid 2022 season that included leading LSU to an upset win over Bryce Young’s Alabama. Daniels is 163-of-223 (73.1%) in 2023 for 2,573 yards and an eye-popping 25 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions. He’s also the team’s second-leading rusher, carrying 91 times for 521 yards (5.7 avg.), which includes yardage lost to sacks, and 5 touchdowns. Daniels is extremely dangerous on zone-read and RPO action, and with the corps of receivers LSU has, he always seems to have one or two guys running free. More importantly, Daniels has already proven once that he can beat Alabama. Alabama has gotten better about containing dual-threat quarterbacks under Steele, but the Crimson Tide hasn’t really played anyone with Daniels’ running ability yet who also has the kind of accuracy he regularly displays. Garrett Nussmeier is Daniels’ backup, but his style doesn’t really fit the current LSU offensive scheme and if Daniels gets hurt, the complexion of this game would change drastically. For Alabama, Jalen Milroe has become one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country – his rating of 175.0 puts him above most of the field, albeit not Daniels, who carries a rating of 204.3. Milroe’s running ability from the pocket had gone dormant prior to the Tennessee win, when Alabama was able to make use of his scrambling ability and power on what were essentially Wildcat plays. Milroe’s passing numbers – 99 for 153 (64.7%), 1,617 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT – aren’t anywhere near those of Daniels; Daniels has more completions than Milroe has attempts. But Milroe is getting better and developing. Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner are probably equal to or better than Nussmeier as backups. There’s just not nearly enough here to push Alabama past Daniels and LSU. Advantage: LSU

RUNNING BACKS
Another transfer, former Notre Dame RB Logan Diggs, has made a huge impact for LSU. Diggs has carried 105 times for 611 yards (5.8 avg.) and 6 touchdowns, and he is a powerfully built, larger running back with the ability to create holes for himself. LSU has a stable of backs behind him – Josh Williams, Kaleb Jackson, Noah Cain and John Emery Jr. They’ve added roughly 450 yards and 8 more touchdowns, and then there’s the aforementioned Jayden Daniels. Of that group, Williams is the smallest of the bunch, and even then he’s roughly the same size as Alabama’s Roydell Williams, so Alabama’s defenders had best bring the heat when tackling. Alabama will start Jase McClellan with Williams behind him, and then possibly Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes. McClellan had one of his best career games at Tennessee, but both he and Williams lack the burst of any of LSU’s top tailbacks. Miller and Haynes have more potential, but with Alabama’s offensive line woes this year, Bama coaches have prioritized getting help from the running backs in pass protection, and McClellan and Williams are far better at it than Miller or Haynes. McClellan’s stats are somewhat comparable to Diggs, although Diggs averages more per carry; Alabama simply doesn’t have as much functional depth behind the starters. Advantage: LSU

WIDE RECEIVERS
Alabama has done nicely in its wide receiver development in 2023. Jermaine Burton has become one of the SEC’s most dangerous receivers due to his physicality and aggressiveness. His production has been exemplary: 23 catches for 508 yards (22.1 avg.) and 5 touchdowns, and he’s as good going across the middle as he is going deep, aside from the occasional drop. Isaiah Bond and reserve TE/H-back Amari Niblack fill out the core of the main receiver group, and Niblack in particular has become a problem for defenses. The third receiver spot has been a bit ho-hum, though, with Malik Benson and Kobe Prentice splitting the spot but not getting any consistency. Ja’Corey Brooks and Jalen Hale provide depth at receiver, while C.J. Dippre occasionally gets in the mix but has been more of an impact as a blocker than a receiver. Robbie Ouzts and Danny Lewis provide depth there. As good as things have been in Tuscaloosa, LSU takes it to another level. Malik Nabers will almost certainly cross the 1,000-yard receiving mark in this game – he needs just 19 yards to do it – and Brian Thomas Jr. has 732 receiving yards of his own. The two have combined for 20 touchdowns, an unreal figure at this point in a season. But things drop off quickly after Nabers and Thomas. Kyren Lacy has caught 19 passes for 308 yards as LSU’s third option; the only other receiver over the 100-yard mark is Chris Hilton Jr., who has snagged just 7 passes over 8 games. Alabama transfer Aaron Anderson has one of those head-scratchers for a stat line: 12 catches for 59 yards and 0 touchdowns, but he has the raw talent to break out at any moment. Tight end Mason Taylor functions as a large possession receiver but is averaging fewer than 10 yards per catch. LSU is essentially Alabama with a catalyst added. The Crimson Tide probably has the edge at tight end, but LSU’s productivity at wideout can’t be overlooked. Advantage: LSU

OFFENSIVE LINE
Both teams have had issues keeping the quarterback clean. LSU ranks 71^st in sacks allowed while Alabama is a woeful 126^th in that stat, although many of Bama’s sacks have been blamed on Jalen Milroe’s pocket awareness. The difference here is in the running game, where LSU is 4^th in the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed, while Alabama is 106^th in the same category. The only potential hiccup for LSU here is that RT Emery Jones Jr. injured an ankle against Auburn, didn’t play against Army and isn’t guaranteed to start this game, either. If he can’t go, true freshman Lance Heard will have to start again. Heard has played in every game this year for LSU, but the Tigers’ entire tackle group is young and inexperienced and will have to face off against Bama’s impressive edge rusher tandem. The rest of the Tiger line will be Charles Turner III at center flanked by guards Garrett Dellinger and Miles Frazier, while Will Campbell will start at left tackle. Alabama will start Seth McLaughlin in the middle, with Jaeden Roberts and Tyler Booker at the guards and J.C. Latham and Kadyn Proctor at the tackles. Bama is getting better up front, but it’s been a slow process. LSU hasn’t been perfect, but has been far more consistent. Advantage: LSU

DEFENSE

Both teams operate from a 3-4 over/under base, but that’s where the similarities end. Alabama’s defense is well-balanced, dynamic and fast, ranking 17^th in total defense, 21^st in rushing defense, 29^th in raw pass defense, 30^th in pass efficiency defense and 16^th in scoring defense. LSU has been a disaster, especially in the back end of the defense, where the Tigers rank 88^th in raw pass defense and 81^st in pass efficiency defense, even with playing teams like Army and Auburn. LSU ranks 88^th in total defense, 83^rd against the run and 73^rd in scoring defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE
LSU was already having problems up front and then the injuries started to hit. LSU ranks just 95^th in sacks and 85^th in tackles for loss, and now will be without the services of one of its best linemen, Mekhi Wingo. LSU’s other starting tackle, Maason Smith, has been banged up here and there as well, but Wingo is gone for the year. West Virginia transfer Jordan Jefferson will start in his place, with Jacobian Guillory, Jalen Lee and Fitzgerald West as the backups. Jefferson’s stats were about on par with Wingo’s and Smith’s, but now he’ll be expected to play nearly every snap. The Guillory-Lee-West trio has yet to make a single play behind the line of scrimmage in 2023. Alabama will start Tim Keenan in the middle flanked by a rotation of Justin Eboigbe, Tim Smith, Jaheim Oatis and Jah-Marien Latham outside. Damon Payne provides depth in the middle. Alabama ranks 8^th in sacks and 16^th in tackles for loss, and a big part of that has been defensive line play that has improved sharply over the course of the fall. With Wingo out for LSU, this one isn’t particularly close. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
LSU moves its linebackers around a good bit, sharing roles, and the result is a group that is probably a bit underrated especially given the struggles of the line and particularly the secondary. Greg Penn and Bradyn Swinson will primarily operate outside with Omar Speights and Harold Perkins inside. Perkins is the straw that stirs the drink here; his stat line has a lot of numbers populating every category across the sheet. He’s been the only Tiger linebacker to have consistent success behind the line of scrimmage, recording 8 tackles for loss, 3 sacks and 4 QB hurries, as well as batting down 5 passes and causing 2 fumbles. When LSU needs to go bigger on the edge, Texas transfer Ovie Oghoufo is available. Brothers West Weeks and Whit Weeks are the primary backups along with Christian Brathwaite. Alabama gets Trezmen Marshall back this week at weakside linebacker, but it remains to be seen whether Marshall will start or whether Jihaad Campbell will retain the spot after a breakout game against Tennessee. Deontae Lawson gets the other inside slot, with Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell outside. Quandarrius Robinson provides depth, primarily on the edge. The Braswell-Turner combo has been good all year and just seems to keep getting better, and Lawson and Campbell wrecked the Tennessee running game last week. Alabama will have to account for Perkins, but the rest are manageable. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
This has potential disaster for LSU written all over it, not just because the secondary was already a thrown-together jalopy of transfers, freshmen and players playing out of position. Now add injuries: CBs Zy Alexander, Duce Chestnut and Denver Harris are out for this game as is safety Greg Brooks Jr. That leaves LSU thin on the outside, with its “top” cornerback now a safety, Sage Ryan. True freshman Ashton Stamps appears to be in line to take Alexander’s starting spot, while Laterrance Welch and Jeremiah Hughes would be the backups. Stamps has missed time this year himself with injury. At safety, Georgia transfer Major Burns and Marshall transfer Andre Sam will start, with a pair of true freshmen, Javien Toviano and Ryan Yaites, the principal backups. Alabama will start Ga’Quincy McKinstry and Terrion Arnold at the corners, with Malachi Moore, Caleb Downs and Jaylen Key at safety. Trey Amos played exceptionally well in relief of Arnold against Tennessee and is the third corner, while Kristian Story is the extra safety. This one was already sort of a landslide advantage for Alabama, but with the shuffling required now to fill all spots just adds to the margin; we’re not even sure what the nickel and dime rotations are going to be for LSU in this game. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
LSU has been acceptable on kickoff returns (44^th) and punt returns (41^st) and excel on punt return defense (19^th). Net punting is in a good spot at 32^nd, but kickoff return defense could be better (61^st). Placekicker Damien Ramos has made all but two kicks, missing both a very long attempt and a very short one. Punter Jay Bramblett has plenty of experience. Alabama has a solid, if not exceptionally wide advantage at the two kicking spots with Will Reichard and James Burnip, and the Crimson Tide both covers and returns kicks well. Punt return defense, though, has fallen to 99^th after starting the season in good shape. The real issue for Alabama, though, is punt returns. Ga’Quincy McKinstry appeared to catch a case of the yips against Tennessee and there have been rumblings that Alabama might try Isaiah Bond or someone else this week. Basically, LSU is the steadier, but also more mediocre unit, while Alabama has the potentially to either boom or bust, depending on the play. It ends up making for a really close call in the end. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, LSU in four categories. On the face, it makes things look like a pure offense-defense play, with LSU holding all the cards on offense, and Alabama having the superior defense and special teams.

But then we look at the OL-DL cross matchups. Alabama’s DL holds a modest edge over LSU’s offensive line, probably a push in the running game but a sizable advantage when rushing the quarterback against LSU’s young tackles. The curious thing, though, is despite LSU holding the edge in the Offensive Line category, Alabama’s OL actually holds the edge against the depleted LSU defensive line, giving Bama both cross-matchup edges.

There aren’t any automatics when doing our weekly previews, but we rarely pick against a team that holds both trench edges. Rarely, but not never. The question here is whether those small advantages to Alabama up front will translate into slowing down the LSU offense, both directly with the defense, and indirectly by controlling the clock on offense and putting together long drives.

Thus, the key matchups here are probably Bama’s skill talent on offense against LSU’s back seven, because Alabama will need to shorten this game. If Alabama finds itself in a track meet, it probably can’t win. But if the Crimson Tide can sustain its drives and chew clock, it could come out of this game with a win, whether the Crimson Tide is really the better team on paper or not.

Alabama 30
LSU 27

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN