Tennessee preview: Whether an offensive all-star show or a defensive standoff, a war is still a war

Last year’s 52-49 loss to Tennessee in Knoxville was the low point of the season for many, and not just because it ended a string of wins over the Volunteers dating back to Nick Saban’s first season, nor because the officiating in the game pushed all boundaries of competency: It was a game that could very well have been billed as the “death of defense.”

In 2023, neither Tennessee nor Alabama looks anywhere near as potentially potent as they did last October in Neyland Stadium. Tennessee has become a run-first team and while the Volunteers are good at it – 6^th nationally, which helps offset an 87th-ranked passing attack – there aren’t many who openly fear the Joe Milton-led attack the way they did the offense piloted by Hendon Hooker last season.

For Alabama, the return to sound defense is welcome, even if it is true that Alabama’s offense plods along. Alabama in 2023 actually has a better passing attack (81^st) than Tennessee does, but the lack of an explosive ground game has kept the offense trapped in a box, heavily reliant on its defense and having little to no room for error.

This game, and the LSU game that follows it, will be Alabama’s two toughest games left unless it advances to a playoff. At least the Crimson Tide has home real estate on its side.

OFFENSE

Tennessee’s offense doesn’t move quite as fast as last year’s, or keep people quite as off-balance, but this is still a dangerous attack that uses exotic formations, tempo and a strong-armed quarterback to get things done. And despite Vol fans’ insistence that this offense is inept, it still ranks 37^th in scoring, which is no small feat. The Volunteer offense has been described as being “complex in its simplicity,” which means it is easy for players to learn and master, but very hard to stop. Alabama’s multiple, pro-style attack is conventional in scope but Jalen Milroe is not the kind of quarterback usually chosen to run something like this. Alabama ranks just 86^th in total offense and hasn’t really been able to hang its hat on anything in particular.

QUARTERBACKS
Tennessee has played one less game than Alabama but because Jalen Milroe sat for the South Florida game, he and UT’s Joe Milton III have the same approximate number of quarters played. Milton’s arm talent has never been in question; indeed, he has one of the best pure skill sets of any quarterback in the country. What he has typically lacked is head talent, meaning knowing when not to force a play. Milton and Milroe have similar interception rates, but both of them are adept running the ball outside the pocket. Milton takes fewer sacks and has a much quicker release than Milroe, which has helped his rushing stats stay out of the red more often. Alabama actually holds an edge in depth, as the Ty Simpson-Tyler Buchner combo have far more seat time than does true freshman Nico Iamaleava for the Volunteers. Iamaleava was arguably the top quarterback recruit in the country this year, but early observations suggest he needs a lot more polish before he’s ready to be thrust into an SEC game. If you had stopped the tape last week at halftime, there’s an argument to be made that Milroe polls better than Milton based off the steady progression he had made since the Texas game. But the second half of the Arkansas game had too much of the old Milroe for anyone’s liking. Joe Milton was expected to pick up right where Hendon Hooker left off, but that hasn’t happened, either. We’re going to give an ever-so-slight edge to UT here based mostly on Milton’s larger book of game experience, especially in rivalry contests like this one. Advantage: Tennessee

RUNNING BACKS
Jaylen Wright was well-respected as a runner coming into this season, but was still flying a bit below the radar as the focus of the Tennessee offense was thought to be on the air game. But Wright has developed into potentially the top running back in the SEC. Over 80 carries, Wright has averaged 7.1 yards per carry and has both the size and speed necessary to be a threat. Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson give Tennessee a powerful, experienced trio of backs and any of the three could be the featured back in this offense. Alabama will use Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams as its featured duo, but Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes got more work than usual against Arkansas, looked good doing it, and now have Bama fans excited that more still may be coming. McClellan is a hard worker and valuable because of what he brings as a receiver and blocker in addition to being an above-average runner. There isn’t a lot of consistent burst in either his game or Williams’ game, however, and opponents know it. Alabama ran the ball well against Arkansas and mixing up the running back assignments will be helpful going forward, but this week, the comparison isn’t all that close. Advantage: Tennessee

WIDE RECEIVERS
The loss of Bru McCoy for the season with an ankle injury was brutal to this unit, which suddenly got a lot more average. McCoy gave the Volunteers a 6’3”, 225-pound vertical threat, who demanded the attention of an opponent’s best DB every snap – and many times, more than one DB. The current leading receiver is now slot receiver Squirrel White, who has possession receiver numbers so far in 2023 (29 catches, 305 yards, 10.5 avg., 0 TD). Ramel Keyton now becomes the primary outside threat, along with Chas Nimrod. Nimrod has 5 catches for 41 yards (8.2 avg.) and while he has good height (6’3”), he doesn’t have McCoy’s bulk. Kaleb Webb and Dont’e Thornton are the only depth players available. The tight end combo of Jacob Warren and UC-Davis transfer McCallan Castles, though, are potent, and Alabama will have to account for them both. For the Crimson Tide, it’s possible that C.J. Dippre could miss this game after injuring a foot or ankle against Arkansas, but all that likely means is more time for Amari Niblack, who is fast becoming one of the SEC’s most feared receiving tight ends. Danny Lewis Jr. and Robbie Ouzts would likely get most of the snaps on the other side of Bama’s twin-TE base set, and Miles Kitselman would probably play a role as well. At receiver, Jermaine Burton continues to step up for Alabama, and there’s a nice core developing around Isaiah Bond, Kobe Prentice, Malik Benson and Ja’Corey Brooks. Alabama needs to clean up some drops coming out of Arkansas, but overall Bama has a lot more depth than Tennessee and any of Bama’s three starters would be the top receiver right now for the Volunteers. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Tennessee ranks 33^rd in sacks allowed and 11^th in tackles for loss allowed, which is far better than Alabama’s rankings of 126^th and 109^th in those respective categories. The big question for Tennessee is whether left guard Andrej Karic will be available for this game; he is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. If he can’t go, little-used senior Jackson Lampley will likely be asked to start, or it could be redshirt freshman Addison Nichols. If Lampley is the guy, Tennessee will have five senior starters on the field. Cooper Mays will start at center, with Javontez Spraggins at right guard, John Campbell at left tackle and Jeremiah Crawford at right tackle. There’s not a lot of star power among this group, but there’s a lot of experience and they play well collectively. Alabama will start Seth McLaughlin at center, Tyler Booker at left guard and J.C. Latham at right tackle. The other two spots are a bit less settled, although Kadyn Proctor appears to be holding on at left tackle over a charge from Elijah Pritchett. The question mark is at right guard, where Jaeden Roberts appears to have outplayed Darrian Dalcourt for the job, but with Dalcourt a sixth-year veteran, we’ll see whether Alabama sticks with the younger player. Roberts has solidified the interior, especially in the running game, so we both expect that lineup to persist, as well as expect bigger things from the running game in the second half of the season. But edge pressure is still a problem for Alabama, and Tennessee has better metrics. Advantage: Tennessee

DEFENSE

Tennessee has won with defense in 2023 more often than not, and it all starts up front. The Volunteers run parts of a 3-4 over/under scheme but the personnel is sized more like a 3-3-5, or even a flex 4-2-5, with three true linemen and smaller ends and linebackers working around them. The Volunteers rank 17^th in total defense, 20^th against the run, 28^th in raw pass defense and 24^th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama has also toughened its defense, the familiar 3-4 over/under that Nick Saban brought with him in 2007. The Crimson Tide ranks 15^th overall, 18^th against the run, 22^nd in raw pass defense and 25^th in pass efficiency defense. Don’t look for a lot of fireworks, but do look for a lot of frustrated offensive linemen.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Tennessee ranks 3^rd in both sacks and tackles for loss in the running game, which is both a statistical oddity and also evidence of improved play up front. Tennessee, as a team, has recorded 52 tackles for loss and 24 sacks, compared to 23 and 9, respectively, for their opponents. Omari Thomas will start at nosetackle with Omarr Norman-Lott the other large tackle. Tyler Baron has developed into a problem for offenses from his defensive end spot. He’s smaller than most ends in SEC three-man fronts, but he makes it work. The “Leo” spot is categorized here as a linebacker. Elijah Simmons and Bryson Eason provide depth up the middle, and Eason may be the best of Tennessee’s tackles regardless of starting status. Dominic Bailey provides depth outside. For Alabama, the Crimson Tide continues to get good work from Tim Keenan and Justin Eboigbe especially, while Jaheim Oatis, James Smith, Jah-Marien Latham, Damon Payne Jr. and Tim Smith make up a nice rotation. Alabama has gotten a lot better over the past month and has narrowed this gap significantly, but Tennessee has the edge in experience and Baron remains an underrated force off the edge. Advantage: Tennessee

LINEBACKERS
Aaron Beasley is Tennessee’s most active player on defense; he leads the team in tackles, tackles for loss, and is tied with several Tennessee DBs in the middle of the PBU leaderboard. Middle linebacker Elijah Herring is a nice complementary piece, but isn’t on Beasley’s level just yet. Roman Harrison and James Pearce Jr. make a good 1-2 punch off the edge, with Pearce being big enough to play a down position with regularity. Alabama will start Deontae Lawson at middle linebacker, but the weakside spot is still up in the air thanks to an injury suffered by Trezmen Marshall against Arkansas. Marshall is listed as questionable, but Alabama has good depth in the interior, and either Jihaad Campbell or Kendrick Blackshire will be able to replace Marshall with no issues. Shawn Murphy and Ian Jackson are also available. From outside, few teams can create the kind of pressure that Alabama can with Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. Quandarrius Robinson gives the Tide a third option that it can pair with its two starters, or use in place of either of them. Beasley and Pearce have been highly productive for Tennessee, but Alabama has more consistency across the entire unit, and much better overall depth. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Tennessee has a veteran secondary and finally has an answer to the question of when its DBs were finally going to start playing up to potential. Auburn transfer Kamal Hadden has solidified the cornerback group just with his presence; he already has recorded 8 PBUs to go along with 3 interceptions. Either Gabe Jeudy-Lally or Doneiko Slaughter will start at the other corner slot, with the leftover player on the field in dime situations. Wesley Walker and Tamarion McDonald have locked things down at safety, with Jaylen McCollough finally showing some consistency there as well. Alabama figures to get Malachi Moore back at Star this week, which would allow Terrion Arnold to return to cornerback opposite Ga’Quincy McKinstry. Jaylen Key and Caleb Downs will start at the other two safety spots. Trey Amos will play corner in this one, especially if Arnold has to move to Star, and Kristian Story will add depth at safety. It’s all basically going to come down to Moore at safety, as he brings instincts to the job that no one else on either team really has. The comparison of McKinstry and Arnold to Tennessee’s Hadden will also be intriguing to watch. This one is close, but we like Bama’s depth and flexibility more. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama will have to watch Dee Williams on punt returns, as he has helped the Vols to a ranking of 8^th there and already has one returned for a score in 2023. Jackson Ross has had an average year as the punter, and Tennessee ranks only 64^th in net punting. Kickoff returns are a mediocre 51^st. Charles Campbell is an accurate kicker at short and intermediate distances, but is just 1-of-3 from beyond 40 yards. The Volunteers are okay on punt coverage but struggle on kickoff coverage. Alabama will have James Burnip back at full speed this week as its punter; even limited last week, Burnip was his usual solid self. Will Reichard is now the SEC’s leading career scorer and continues to drop in points from all parts of the field. If Alabama can make a little noise on punt returns – Ga’Quincy McKinstry is dangerous with the ball in his hands, but hasn’t been aggressive in chasing balls down – it can probably find some success this week. Regardless, the Burnip-Reichard duo is far superior to Tennessee’s kickers, even though there’s nothing particularly wrong with the Tennessee kicking game. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, Tennessee in four. Alabama comes close to taking two other leads – defensive line, quarterback – which would suggest this game will be a rather uneventful Alabama win. But then you get to the OL-DL cross-matchups.

In those, Tennessee’s defensive line strongly controls the matchup with the Alabama offensive line. When reversed, however, Alabama’s defensive line might not hold the edge over the Tennessee OL. It’s a push at worst, but that’s still a far sight closer result than when looking at the gulf that separates the Volunteer DL from the Alabama OL. Again, injuries to the Tennessee offensive line could affect that.

This game just doesn’t feel like either side will be able to get enough traction to run away with things. It’s a possibility, we suppose, that Joe Milton could get hot and more or less will the Vols to victory, but it’s much more likely that this game ends up resembling Alabama-Tennessee games from a more golden era of the sport.

If that winds up being the case, it’s hard to bet against a home team that has a good defense and strong special teams. Alabama just needs to concentrate on limiting mistakes, and not shutting off the effort and focus the way it did against Arkansas last week.

Alabama 23
Tennessee 17

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN