Arkansas preview: After 4 tough (but close) losses, do the Hogs have anything left to give?

After the unexpectedly upbeat way it once started, the career of Arkansas’ Sam Pittman is in danger of sliding into obscurity. Arkansas comes into Bryant-Denny Stadium as the owner of a 2-4 record in 2023, with those four losses coming in each of the Razorbacks’ last four games.

Arkansas has been in the middle of an offensive overhaul, as the Razorbacks moved from the high-flying Kendal Briles offense of 2023 to something resembling more of a balanced, ball-control stylings of Dan Enos. To say it’s been rough sledding would be an understatement; Arkansas has looked tepid at best and inept at worst, and senior QB K.J. Jefferson has looked overwhelmed by the new requirements of the job.

Defensively, Arkansas has overachieved, if anything. Pittman has a good eye for talent and came to Arkansas with a reputation for being able to seal the deal, but the Razorbacks look a step slower than most of their competition. Alabama probably won’t be challenged to the degree that Texas A&M or Ole Miss challenged the Crimson Tide, but Arkansas probably won’t have the guns for a long-lasting fight.

OFFENSE

By alignment, there isn’t much difference between what Arkansas ran last year and what it runs this year. It’s a one-back, three-wide attack that has become the standard at most of the college and pro levels. What it isn’t, is effective. Last year, Arkansas finished the season with the nation’s 15th-ranked offense, 7^th in rushing and 63^rd in passing. This year? Arkansas is 111^th in total offense, 112^th in rushing offense, and 80^th in passing offense, despite retaining a lot of the same personnel. The Razorbacks aren’t alone in their struggles; Alabama’s offense has been slow to get traction for much of 2024 but is coming off one of its best performances of the year, if not the best. The Crimson Tide ranks 87^th in total offense, 82^nd in rushing and 84^th in passing – consistently mediocre so far.

QUARTERBACKS
The quarterback most pundits have compared Alabama’s Jalen Milroe to in the world of college football has been Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson. The two signal-callers have similar builds, and the knock on Jefferson in his early years was the same as the knock on Milroe now: they’re athletes playing quarterbacks. In both cases, however, the label didn’t quite stick. Jefferson came into the 2023 season a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate, but his candidacy has pretty much evaporated due to the four recent losses. Jefferson’s biggest issue so far in 2023 has been turnovers – he’s thrown 6 interceptions already. But he’s also managed to keep a QB rating of 150.5 thanks to going 110-of-164 (67.1%) for 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s also the team’s leader in rush attempts, getting 82 of them already. But Jefferson has only netted 136 yards (1.7 avg.) and 1 touchdown, because the Arkansas offensive line has been dismal. For Alabama, Milroe is 75-of-111 (67.6%) for 1,159 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions with one fewer game played, and he’s been steadily getting better with reads and ball security. He’s carried 57 times for 158 yards (2.8 avg.), again with a lot of sack yardage lost, but has 4 touchdowns. Both can heave it deep with the best of them, and both are going to pick up first downs scrambling. What Jefferson has on Milroe at the moment is mostly experience. As for depth, Alabama has more of it, with Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner both having more experience than Arkansas’ Jacolby Criswell, at least at their current schools. Criswell was a former backup at North Carolina and has similar career experience to Notre Dame transfer Buchner, but Criswell has yet to really impress in any of his outings. Give Arkansas a slight edge here due to Jefferson’s career experience, but Milroe is coming on fast. Advantage: Arkansas

RUNNING BACKS
The struggles of the Razorback running backs to repeat 2022’s numbers has probably been the biggest surprise of the season. Arkansas has excellent depth, but Raheim Sanders has been thoroughly contained, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. The back leading the pack in terms of carries is Rashod Dubinion, who is averaging just 3.7 yards per clip. A.J. Green has been the most successful, statistically, of the bunch, averaging 6.1 yards per tote on 31 carries. Dominique Johnson provides further depth, but he, too, has struggled (2.7 yards per carry). If the Razorback OL can ever put it together, look out, but for now the lack of production here has been a problem. Alabama will start Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams in some kind of two-back rotation, but they are on pace to have the most pedestrian stats of any Bama RB group in the Nick Saban era. McClellan has been the more consistent of the two, while Williams has struggled against strong defensive lines. Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes keep threatening to break into the rotation, but it hasn’t happened yet. Haynes in particular seems to have some burst, but it’s not likely Alabama will use either him or Miller unless it builds a lead. We’ve seen how good Arkansas has been in the past, and Green is having a nice year, but we also can’t ignore what has been an overall sorry showing by the Hog runners up to this point. McClellan is likely the best back on either team, anyway. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
With the continued emergence of Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond for Alabama, the Crimson Tide now has something it can build around in the passing game. Add in mismatch maven Amari Niblack at tight end, and this begins to look like the kind of receiver unit Alabama fans have grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. Malik Benson, Ja’Corey Brooks, Kobe Prentice, Kendrick Law and Jalen Hale add depth at receiver, while C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts and Danny Lewis Jr. will see work at tight end. For Arkansas, Andrew Armstrong has become the definitive go-to receiver in this offense, catching 35 balls, twice what Burton has snagged for Alabama. Armstrong, who transferred over the offseason from Texas A&M-Commerce, is a big-bodied receiver (6’4”, 210) who is somewhere in the middle between being a downfield threat and a possession target. True freshman tight end Luke Hasz is the Razorbacks’ second-leading receiver, just ahead of wideout Isaac TeSlaa, another big-body transfer, but Hasz is doubtful for this game with a shoulder injury. Raw speed is a question with this group. Jaedon Wilson and Tyrone Broden provide depth at receiver, while Ty Washington, Nathan Bax, Francis Sherman and Var’keyes Gumms will try to make up for the loss of Hasz. Alabama has more dynamic ability, but Arkansas isn’t completely out of the rear-view mirror. Bama may have some trouble with the size of the Razorbacks, however. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
If Alabama’s offensive line continues to play the way it did against Texas A&M, fans will be pleased. While Alabama didn’t run the ball with effectiveness last week, the line did manage to play to a draw with Texas A&M’s premier pass rushers, which was not expected. Seth McLaughlin will start at center, with Tyler Booker at left guard and J.C. Latham at right tackle. Left tackle has become somewhat of a rotation of Kadyn Proctor and Elijah Pritchett. The spot to watch is right guard, where third-teamer Jaeden Roberts was forced into a starting role last week after injuries in previous weeks caught up to Terrence Ferguson and Darrian Dalcourt. Roberts wasn’t perfect against the Aggies, but his aggressive demeanor and motor won him a lot of fans. If Dalcourt is back from a shoulder injury this week, it will be interesting to see whether Bama gives the senior his job back, or stays with the hot hand in Roberts. Arkansas’ offensive line has been a perfunctory mess in 2023, ranking 119^th in sacks allowed and 121^st in tackles allowed. Alabama hasn’t been much better in those categories, either (125^th/114^th), but the Crimson Tide looks to be on an upswing while Arkansas is headed down. Beaux Limmer will start for Arkansas at center, with Brady Latham and Joshua Braun at the guards and Andrew Chamblee and Patrick Kutas at the tackles. Devon Manuel and Ty’Kieast Crawford have also started games. There is a lack of experience outside, and Arkansas figures to have quite a time trying to stop Alabama’s outside pass rush. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

If anything, Arkansas has surprised some people on this side of the ball, as the Razorbacks fielded one of the worst defenses in all of FBS in 2022. On average, Arkansas ranked 100^th or worse in most categories last year and has brought that up to an average ranking in the 40-50 range in 2023. The pass defense is still a bit suspect. Arkansas operates from a 4-2-5 base; it would like to call its “Buck” position a hybrid, but for the most part it’s a down end spot limited by relative athleticism. Arkansas ranks 42^nd in total defense, 46^th in rushing defense, 50^th in raw pass defense and 84^th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama’s 3-4 over/under scheme has quite a bit more flexibility thanks to the athletes the Tide has on the sideline. Alabama is currently 19^th in total defense, 23^rd in rushing defense, 28^th in raw pass defense and 25^th in pass efficiency defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas has been good up front and given the amount of experience the Razorbacks bring to the table, they should be good. Eric Gregory and Taurean Carter start at the tackles, with Trajan Jeffcoat and LSU transfer Landon Jackson at the defensive ends. Jackson is a junior; the other three are seniors. Gregory and Carter can be hard to move inside, but it’s Jeffcoat that will need the most attention. Jackson plays the “Buck” position along with senior John Morgan III, a Pitt transfer, but they’re both basically defensive ends. There’s good depth off the bench inside with Keivie Rose, Cameron Ball and Anthony Booker Jr. each having a good year. Things are a little thinner outside, where Jashaud Stewart and Zach Williams play a bunch of snaps but aren’t as productive as the guys in front of them. Arkansas ranks 31^st in sacks and 17^th in tackles for loss. Alabama counters with Tim Keenan, Justin Eboigbe, Tim Smith, Jaheim Oatis, Damon Payne and Jah-Marien Latham rotating across the defensive front. The big advantage here for Alabama is the ability to be flexible, play multiple positions and flat-out superior depth. Had we not seen the performance against Texas A&M last week, we’d probably take Arkansas here, but presuming what Alabama put out against A&M wasn’t fool’s gold, it could just be that Bama is on the cusp of solidifying its defensive front. These are two very good units, and we’d probably mark it a push if we could. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
It’s hard for teams running just two full-time linebackers to compete against Alabama’s personnel, and Arkansas is no exception. The bigger issue for Arkansas in this game is that Chris Paul Jr., the team’s middle linebacker and second-leading tackler, might not play due to what has been termed a “head injury,” meaning likely concussion. Cincinnati transfer Jaheim Thomas is the team’s leading tackler and will start at weakside linebacker; he has more than enough size to move into the middle if asked. If Paul can’t go, either South Florida transfer Antonio Grier or Jordan Crook will have to start in his place. Alabama will start Deontae Lawson and Trezmen Marshall inside, with Jihaad Campbell and Kendrick Blackshire also seeing some time there. Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell will start outside, with Quandarrius Robinson providing depth. There’s nothing particularly wrong with Arkansas’ group, particularly if Paul plays, and Jaheim Thomas has proved adept at making plays behind the line of scrimmage. But Bama’s inside linebackers are better still, and the Crimson Tide has an edge presence that the Razorbacks lack. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
If Dwight McGlothern can play in this game, he’ll back every other Razorback better just by being there. McGlothern is one of the best corners in the SEC at getting turnovers and flipping momentum, but like Chris Paul, he is trying to come back from a concussion. Despite tallying just 9 tackles so far this year, McGlothern has 2 interceptions and has forced a fumble, displaying his value. He is set to start opposite true freshman Jaylon Braxton, who is being thrown headlong into the SEC fire. If McGlothern can’t go, look for TCU transfer Kee’yon Stewart to start there. Jayden Johnson, Lorando Johnson Jr. and Baylor transfer Alfahiym Walcott form up the safety trio. Arkansas is 19^th in the country at forcing interceptions, but the secondary also gives up a lot of big plays. For Alabama, the most likely alignment will be Ga’Quincy McKinstry and Trey Amos at the corners, with Caleb Downs and Jaylen Key at the high safeties and Terrion Arnold playing Star. Malachi Moore suffered an ankle injury against Texas A&M that looked significantly ugly, but he hasn’t been ruled out of this game yet. If Alabama can make it without him, they will likely try. Antonio Kite would become the third corner for the first time this year, while Kristian Story would be the top backup safety. Alabama will be fine with the lineup that has Arnold at Star; it’s what would happen if there’s another injury in this game that Alabama doesn’t want to have to figure out. Either way, Bama is in a much better position than is Arkansas here. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Due to a hamstring injury to punter James Burnip, Alabama has some uncertainty here. Placekicker Will Reichard took over punting duties on the fly last week in College Station, and acquitted himself well. But Reichard has punted for Alabama before and suffered an injury while doing so. Nick Serpa, a redshirt freshman, might be called upon in this game to handle things for Burnip, who is listed as questionable. Alabama’s coverage teams had issues with Texas A&M’s Ainias Smith last week, and Arkansas has even better return men. Redshirt freshman Isaiah Sategna is the man to watch there. Max Fletcher is almost Burnip’s equal as a punter, but Arkansas ranks a dismal 124^th in punt return defense and as such, net punting comes in at just 74^th nationally compared to 25^th for Alabama. Placekicker Cam Little is right on Reichard’s heels and both players will probably advance to the next cut for the Groza Award. With Burnip possibly out and Arkansas’ talented kick and punt return teams looming, not to mention Little’s ability to match Reichard kick-for-kick, we have to go with the Hogs here. Advantage: Arkansas

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, Arkansas in two. But there are few runaways on that list. Alabama is markedly better at linebacker and defensive back, but every other category on the board could flip either way, especially depending on the status of previously injured players.

As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines hold advantages over the opposing offensive lines. Alabama’s DL probably has a bigger advantage against the Arkansas OL than the Arkansas DL has over the Alabama OL, however.

Probably the biggest concerns of all headed into this game are, one, does Alabama come into this game with any kind of hangover after beating the Aggies on their home field last week; secondary to that concern, is what would happen if K.J. Jefferson show up in Tuscaloosa suddenly sharp and displaying his full array of skills, which up to this point in the season he arguably hasn’t done.

The next step for a growing team like Alabama is to be able to shake off the hangover of victory and refocus on the task at hand. Pittman’s teams play hard, Jefferson has seen just about everything, and Alabama is still trying to develop key pieces like Jalen Milroe. This one might be a bit tighter than some fans think it should be.

Alabama 31
Arkansas 20

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN