Alabama has been fooled before by the Texas A&M program, for both good and bad.
There was Johnny Manziel’s fumble-before-the-touchdown play, arguably the signature play of his career, when Texas A&M upset Alabama 29-24 in 2012. On the other hand, there was the game that still holds the record for TideFans.com’s biggest miss ever in our weekly predictions feature: We picked Alabama to lose to Texas A&M in 2014; Alabama won the game by a razor-thin margin of 59-0.
Ever since Jimbo Fisher took over in College Station, though, Alabama fans have come to view the Aggie program with a more cautious eye. Fisher isn’t one of the best gameday coaches in the country, but he is one of the best recruiters in college football, and as a former associate of Alabama’s Nick Saban, there’s not much in the way of roster building that Fisher doesn’t already know. This year’s Aggie program is stout on both sides of the ball, but an early loss to Miami may have taken some of the focus off the program. Texas A&M is trying to sneak through this game with a victory – and the Aggies might just get it.
OFFENSE
The best move Jimbo Fisher could have made over the offseason was to bring in an outside voice at offensive coordinator and revive an attack that had grown stale in its concepts. And boy, did Fisher ever do it: Former Arkansas mastermind Bob Petrino has brought his more wide-open, pro-style passing attack to College Station, and Texas A&M is slowly righting the ship. The Aggies rank 34th in total offense, 30th in passing offense, 14th in scoring offense and 35th in passing efficiency. If the Aggies can fix the running game (61st), they’ll have something to really talk about. Alabama’s offense has been much more conservative in 2023 than in years past, while Bama manages the quarterback situation. Bama is 54th in rushing, 50th in scoring, 86th in total offense and 103rd in passing offense.
QUARTERBACKS
The Aggies were dealt a heavy blow when Conner Weigman was lost for the season with an ankle injury. That puts the offense in the hands of LSU transfer Max Johnson. Johnson is a decent enough athlete, but he lacks Weigman’s raw arm strength. He makes up for it in better medium-distance accuracy and probably a better grasp of the offense as a whole, but he is also more prone to turnovers. Johnson’s passer rating is almost identical to Weigman’s (155.0 vs. 156.8); Weigman had thrown for more yardage and actually had better completion numbers than did Johnson, but Johnson has been more productive at getting the ball into the end zone. Johnson isn’t a great runner, but he’s not a bad one, either. The real question for Texas A&M is one of depth; sophomore Jaylen Henderson is listed as the backup, but has seen no action yet since transferring in from Fresno State. Alabama will start Jalen Milroe, who is coming off his second straight consistent performance against a quality opponent. The fact Milroe was able to put up good numbers and keep a level head in Starkville last weekend bodes well for this game. He’s a better runner by several degrees compared to Johnson, and probably throws a better deep ball. In every other way, though, Johnson is the superior quarterback, at least for now. Alabama enjoys a depth advantage, as both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner have played about the same, total, in their careers as has Henderson, and certainly more at their current program, but we’re all still waiting to see whether Milroe can carry Alabama to a victory rather than be carried along with the greater team effort. The Aggies shouldn’t miss a beat going from Weigman to Johnson unless Johnson, too, gets hurt. Advantage: Texas A&M
RUNNING BACKS
It’s a bit of a mystery as to why the Aggies haven’t put up better numbers as a team running the football, because the 1-2 punch of Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels are as good as just about anyone. They just need more experience. Moss in particular looks like a future SEC star; he has good size and strength, and has carried 46 times for 276 yards (6.0 avg.) and 2 touchdowns. Daniels has added 270 yards and 2 scores of his own. Both are utilized as receivers as well. True freshman Reuben Owens is the third back, but he has struggled to get traction thus far in his young career, averaging below 4 yards per carry. Alabama will use primarily Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams, although Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes are both available. Haynes should some flash in limited work against Mississippi State last week. As for the starters, McClellan and Williams have comparable production to Moss and Daniels, but trail in both touchdowns scored and yard-per-carry averages. What Alabama has that Texas A&M doesn’t is a good bit of run-game production from the quarterback position. Oddly enough, this category could land in Alabama’s favor if the Crimson Tide could find a way to get Miller or Haynes more involved, but it hasn’t been done up to this point because Alabama doesn’t seem to feel Miller and Haynes can handle working certain plays without the football. McClellan is probably the best back on either team, and Alabama actually has superior depth once things get to the second-line players. The question is, will Alabama get that far into the depth chart to bring that edge into the picture? This is practically a push, but we don’t do pushes here. Advantage: Texas A&M
WIDE RECEIVERS
This will be one of the best wide receiver units Alabama faces this year. Evan Stewart is a DeVonta Smith-type player, similar size and height and also with a knack for making big plays. He has caught 24 passes for 357 yards (14.9 avg.) so far and 4 touchdowns. Ainias Smith, Jahdae Walker, Muhsin Muhammad III and Noah Thomas round out the top group, and all of them are capable of taking the top off the defense. The Aggies also get good production from the tight end group, led by Max Wright and Jake Johnson. Alabama’s wide receivers have done a solid job in 2023, going from being a potential liability to one of the strongest units on the team. Isaiah Bond, Malik Benson, Jermaine Burton, Ja’Corey Brooks, Jalen Hale and Kobe Prentice lead the way there. Alabama’s tight end group may actually be better than the Aggies’, as C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts and Amari Niblack have formed a competent, able unit with some star power attached. Danny Lewis Jr. provides depth there. It’s hard to say what the numbers would look like if Alabama was still operating from a pass-first offense, but we have to go with what’s in front of us, and that is that Alabama’s edge at tight end isn’t enough to make up what Stewart and the others bring to the table for the Aggies. Advantage: Texas A&M
OFFENSIVE LINE
The Texas A&M line is viewed as perhaps the weakest part of its offense, but get into the numbers and things don’t look nearly as bad. The Aggies rank 35th in sacks allowed and 31st in tackles for loss allowed. Compare that to Alabama’s numbers – 122nd in sacks allowed and 115th in tackles for loss allowed. It’s not even close. If there’s an issue here for Texas A&M, it’s in experience: tackles Trey Zuhn (sophomore) and Chase Bisontis (freshman) are young, as is left guard Mark Nabou (freshman). Bryce Foster will start at center, with Kam Dewberry the backup there and at both guards, while veteran Layden Robinson starts at right guard. It’s a no-name group, but the bench is deep and has former starters (Reuben Fatheree Jr., Dametrious Crownover) available if needed. Alabama will start Seth McLaughlin at center, with Darrian Dalcourt and Tyler Booker at the guards and J.C. Latham and Kadyn Proctor at the tackles. Elijah Pritchett should see some time at tackle as well. Backup guard Terrence Ferguson may still be out for this game, which makes Jaeden Roberts the only non-freshman available inside. Some observers don’t feel the Aggies are as good as their metrics suggest, but there’s such a chasm between Texas A&M’s performance up front to date and Alabama’s, that we cannot in good conscience take the Tide. Advantage: Texas A&M
DEFENSE
The Aggies operate mostly from a variant of a 4-2-5 scheme under D.J. Durkin, using multiple fronts and a nickel safety in their base package. Statistically, there are few more solid: Texas A&M ranks 5th in total defense, 8th in raw pass defense, 20th in rushing defense and 32nd in scoring defense. The secondary ranks 49th in pass efficiency defense, however, somewhat a function of being prone to big plays in the back end. Alabama’s 3-4 over/under scheme has started to come together the last three weeks after the Texas debacle, and the Crimson Tide ranks 18th in total defense, 36th against the run, 23rd in raw pass defense and 20th in pass efficiency defense. The Tide is 17th in scoring defense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
This is the biggest edge out of any category on the board. Texas A&M takes this by such a margin that it’s barely worth discussing. The Aggies lead the nation in tackles for loss and are 2nd in sacks. McKinnley Jackson will start at the nose with Walter Nolen and Shemar Turner alongside. Shemar Stewart is the primary backup outside, with Isaiah Raikes the backup nose. Another backup tackle, Albert Regis, is a talented pass rusher. Nolen and Turner have combined for 13 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. Texas A&M uses its “Edge” position starter, Fadil Diggs, as more of a second defensive end than a stand-up linebacker, and he has been productive as well. Alabama will start Tim Keenan in the middle with Tim Smith, Jaheim Oatis, Justin Eboigbe and Jah-Marien Latham rotating at the tackle spots. Damon Payne and James Smith provide depth inside. Alabama has played better the last three weeks, but the whole college football world is looking up at Texas A&M right now. Advantage: Texas A&M
LINEBACKERS
Partly because Alabama utilizes four linebackers to the Aggies’ two, it’s hard to equate production here. Edgerrin Cooper and Taurean York will start for Texas A&M and they occupy positions one and two on the Aggies’ season tackle list. The concern factor here leans hard toward Cooper, who already has recorded 9 tackles for loss and who is also capable of rushing the passer. York serves in a mostly complementary role to him. Chris Russell will back up both slots, and he should play quite a bit in this game, both as a reserve and as a third linebacker when A&M goes to a more traditional 4-3 look. Freshman Dalton Brooks is the other reserve. Alabama may get Deontae Lawson back at middle linebacker for this game, which would send Jihaad Campbell back into a three-way split for playing time at weakside linebacker with Trezmen Marshall and Kendrick Blackshire. Even if Lawson does start, expect to see Campbell also spelling him at his post. This has been a highly productive group in 2023 and Alabama has improved its skills across the board, in terms of stopping both the run and the pass. Outside, Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell are the primary factors, and both of them are potential game-changers coming off the edge. Quandarrius Robinson provides depth. Cooper is certainly a factor for the Aggies, but Alabama has more weapons overall. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Alabama holds a comfortable edge here, although Texas A&M has the potential to be very good. Boston College transfer Josh DeBerry starts one of the cornerback slots with Tyreek Chappell at the other. Demani Richardson and Jacoby Mathews will start at safety, while Bryce Anderson gets the call at nickel. Depth is an issue at safety, as only one other player – Jarred Kerr – is listed as being available for this game. Florida State transfer Sam McCall will be the backup corner along with Deuce Harmon. This group is adept at breaking up passes – 22 so far in 2023. For Alabama, Ga’Quincy McKinstry and Terrion Arnold will start at the corners, with Malachi Moore, Jaylen Key and Caleb Downs at the starting safeties. Trey Amos and Kristian Story provide depth outside and inside, respectively. This has been a productive unit for Alabama, arguably elite, and is getting better now that Key is returning to form after a leg injury sustained in the opener. Texas A&M’s secondary isn’t bad; it just lacks the athleticism of Alabama’s group and also is at a distinct disadvantage in this game in regard to depth. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Texas A&M has been strong in some areas (12th in net punting, 15th in punt returns) but has struggled in kickoff return defense (103rd) and, perhaps most important in this game, midrange field goals. Randy Bond has made 11 of 15 kicks, including both attempts from beyond 50 yards, but is just 1-of-5 from between 40 and 49 yards out. Punter Nick Constantinou is one of the best punters in the league, but both players come in behind Alabama’s dynamic duo of kicker Will Reichard and punter James Burnip. Alabama needs to clean up some sloppiness in the return game, but overall it’s hard to overlook what Reichard and Burnip are doing, and the actual kicking of the ball is the most important thing in this category by far. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Texas A&M leads in five categories, Alabama in three. It’s the first time in a while that we’ve had Alabama coming in behind its opponent in this analysis. Alabama could easily lead in the running back category, and offensive line wasn’t decided by a wide margin, either, but the point here is that the home team in this game, Texas A&M, is no worse than Alabama in a pure talent matchup and may actually be better.
In regard to OL-DL cross-matchups, this is an ugly matchup for Bama on the whole. Alabama’s offensive line will struggle mightily with Texas A&M’s defensive front unless the Bama OL plays well above their heads. In the matchup of Alabama DL versus Texas A&M OL, the Aggies also lead there but the margin is drastically slimmer. For that matter, if Alabama’s defensive line plays this week like it did against Mississippi State, this half of the matchup could wind up being a push.
Given that Alabama will be fighting uphill in the trenches – literally – looking for a way for Bama to win this game eventually comes back around to what’s happening at quarterback for both teams. Max Johnson doesn’t have the “wow” factor, but he’s steady and intelligent enough to work within the system. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe will probably have to go win this game with his arm, and that’s something Bama hasn’t asked him to do yet. Will he be up to the challenge?
If he’s going to do it, he needs his running backs to turn in a more dynamic performance than has been typical in 2023, and he will certainly need his offensive line to give him more time. Milroe’s somewhat maddening penchant to take sacks rather than throw the ball away could get out of hand if Texas A&M is able to have success attacking the Alabama front.
There’s just too much here that we feel has to fall into place the right way to justify picking Alabama to win. We wouldn’t be surprised if Alabama pulls it off, but it’s going to take the most complete effort of the year by far.
Texas A&M 23
Alabama 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN