DEFENSE
Leach or no Leach on offense, this Mississippi State team was expected to win with defense. The Bulldogs employ a full-time 3-3-5 alignment, which isn’t the most common scheme these days, but the much bigger issue is that it’s not been a particularly good defense so far. The Bulldogs rank 95th in total defense, 50th in rushing defense, 120th in raw pass defense, 118th in pass efficiency defense and 87th in scoring defense. They do a good job at turning teams over, but they are also among the worst teams on both third and fourth downs.
Alabama has put up three excellent showings out of its four games so far, and ranks 30th in total defense, 28th against the run, 46th in raw pass defense and 39th in pass efficiency defense despite facing three pass-heavy teams. Scoring defense comes in at 17th. Alabama will operate from its familiar 3-4 over/under defensive scheme.
DEFENSIVE LINE
If there’s a silver lining to what MSU is doing (or not doing) on defense this year, it’s in the defensive line. Nosetackle Nathan Pickering was highly regarded by the Alabama staff coming out of high school and has developed into a force in the middle of the Bulldog defense, recording 2 sacks, 3 QB hurries and 2 tackles for loss. He’s also the team’s fourth-leading tackler, which is almost unheard of for a tackle in a 3-man front. The other two starters, De’Monte Russell and Jaden Crumedy, don’t produce quite on that level, but they both do a good job getting after the quarterback. Jordan Davis, Eric Taylor and Trevion Williams are the chief backups.
MSU ranks 42nd in sacks and the defensive line is the biggest part of that. Alabama has been getting an improving performance from its line over the last two weeks, headed up by NT Tim Keenan, who could be the Tide’s next breakout defensive lineman. Tim Smith has also righted his ship the last couple of weeks, and Jaheim Oatis, Justin Eboigbe, Damon Payne Jr. and Jah-Marien Latham combine to make a competent rotation.
Alabama ranks 18th in sacks and 19th in tackles for loss but the question for Alabama is whether the improvement over the last two weeks is a mirage. Statistically, it’s hard to argue that Mississippi State is better, but the Bulldogs have an experience edge over Alabama and the line has been about the only thing holding this defense together so far. Advantage: Mississippi State
LINEBACKERS
Alabama will likely be without Deontae Lawson at middle linebacker, which would ordinarily be a huge loss. But Bama’s inside linebackers have developed significant depth and the emergence of Jihaad Campbell last week after Lawson went out of the game is a big story.
Trezmen Marshall and Kendrick Blackshire will split the weakside position; all three of these players play fast, aggressive and haven’t made many mistakes so far this year. Shawn Murphy is the likely backup to Campbell with Lawson out, and Justin Jefferson might also see some time.
Alabama’s outside linebacker group of Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell and Quandarrius Robinson are among the best in the business.
For State, Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson are 1-2 on the team’s tackle list, and both are active behind the line of scrimmage. Production at the strongside position, where DeShawn Page starts, hasn’t kept up, but that’s the position that leaves the field in a dime set. Johnson and Watson have already combined for an eye-popping 81 tackles in 2023, which among other things also points to a lack of depth. Watson has the best stat line of anyone on either team, but the Bulldogs also have made more mistakes in regard to gap fills and angles.
The Bulldogs also lack the edge presence Alabama has in the pass rush. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The most head-scratching development for MSU this fall has been the failure of the secondary to perform despite having several veterans patrolling the back end. One cornerback position is still completely up for grabs, with Esaias Furdge and DeCarlos Nicholson splitting it so far. Decamerion Richardson holds down the other side. The three have combined for just 2 PBUs so far, and have been liabilities in run defense.
The safety trio – Shawn Preston, Hunter Washington and Alabama transfer Marcus Banks – have been OK but not special. Washington, in particular, hasn’t been as productive as hoped. Jordan Morant is the primary backup to those three.
Alabama has done a solid job against a difficult set of opponents so far. With teams trying not to have to go at CB Ga’Quincy McKinstry, Terrion Arnold has seen a lot of fire come his way and so far, he’s been more than up to the challenge. Malachi Moore, Caleb Downs and Jaylen Key have been a solid safety trio. Trey Amos backs up the corners and Kristian Story is the primary backup at safety.
Rather shockingly, this one hasn’t been particularly close. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama’s special teams have been a consistent strength through the first four games. There’s likely not a better placekicker than Will Reichard – there might be some as good, but not markedly better – and punter James Burnip may be the most improved player on the entire team. The return and coverage teams have been solid, and Alabama blocked a kick against Ole Miss. Mississippi State ranks just 60th in net punting, and kickoff return defense and especially punt return defense have both struggled.
The Bulldogs have done some harm on kick and punt returns, however. MSU brought in three transfer placekickers and then saw the job go to a true freshman, Kyle Ferrie, who has been good so far, with 4 of his 6 field goals coming from beyond 40 yards.
The Bulldogs aren’t bad, but Alabama has been elite. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Like last week, Alabama leads in four categories, MSU in four. The closest call on the board, though, is defensive line, where Alabama is just on the Bulldogs’ heels. Alabama is also closer in the receiver category than expected due to the strength of the Tide tight ends.
In the OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines are better than the other team’s offensive lines. The difference is a little closer between the MSU OL vs. the Bama DL, however. This will be a very similar test to what Alabama faced last week against Ole Miss, for slightly different reasons. Alabama’s offensive line is going to have problems with the Bulldog DL, and doesn’t have the spare personnel this week to try different groupings.
What Alabama probably won’t have to worry about so much this week is the opponent’s running attack. Because of the injuries and the offensive system switchover, Mississippi State already seemed to panic a bit against South Carolina last week and revert into an all-passing, all-the-time shell. If the Bulldogs fully abandon the run against Alabama, it’s not going to end well. Alabama’s secondary has the talent to match up against the MSU receiver core, the Bulldog tight ends aren’t such a threat and the MSU offensive line isn’t good enough to absorb the added pressure all by itself. In addition, while Mississippi State is good at forcing turnovers (28th in fumbles, 41st in interceptions), the back end of the Bulldog defense has had its issues.
This game, of course, is not being played inside the friendly trappings of Bryant-Denny Stadium. Scott Field isn’t the most difficult SEC venue by any stretch, but the cowbell noise and recent stadium additions have made it a much more difficult place to visit than it was, say, 20 years ago.
A lot of how Alabama fares Saturday will come down to whether the Bulldogs can rattle QB Jalen Milroe like they rattle those bells. If Milroe keeps his composure, and the same Tide defense shows up that showed up the last two weeks, Alabama should roll on to the next challenge.
Alabama 30
Mississippi St. 17
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