DEFENSE
Both teams run a 3-4 over/under scheme and each team’s depth chart is peppered with veterans. The difference is where the strengths lie: Texas leans hard on a strong front seven to cover up some holes in the secondary, while Alabama linebackers and defensive backs are better than most and help cover up some issues along the defensive line. Texas was good at getting to the quarterback in 2022, but Alabama in 2023 appears to be playing with more of an aggressive, downhill mindset. It should make for an interesting evening.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama is going to have issues with T’Vondre Sweat, who is listed on the depth chart at 6’4”, 362 pounds and not playing nosetackle. If Sweat can move around as one of the two tackle/ends in this alignment, he will make running the football a chore. Alfred Collins will start at the other side, with Byron Murphy in the middle.
If there’s a weak spot here, it would be over Murphy, who barely cracks 300 pounds at nose. Like Alabama, Texas will use a lot of 2-4 sub sets up front, which brings a pair of edge players into the discussion. The Buck position here is a hybrid DE/LB slot that is used mostly like a defensive end. Ethan Burke and Justice Finkley are the two names to watch there, and it’s the only position on the line that doesn’t have someone with starting experience prior to the 2023 season.
Alabama is still trying to figure out its ultimate rotation here, but for now, it’s Tim Keenan in the middle flanked by Justin Eboigbe and Jaheim Oatis. Tim Smith, Damon Payne Jr. and Jah-Marien Latham are the next group, while Monkell Goodwine and Anquin Barnes Jr. offer further depth. Oatis’ story mirrors that of Sweat, a nosetackle who has since moved into an outside role. Overall, Texas has a much more well-established body of work, better quality of depth and more flexibility. This one isn’t particularly close. Advantage: Texas
LINEBACKERS
Texas brings strong credentials to the table here, especially middle linebacker Jaylan Ford, who led Texas against Alabama last year with 10 tackles, 2 TFLs and a sack. Barryn Sorrell mans the Jack linebacker position and, when on the field with one of the Buck linebacker/DEs, can either freestyle across the line of scrimmage or line up as a rabbit rusher. The new starter at weakside linebacker, David Gbenda, led the team in tackles against Rice. It was the Alabama game that touched off Ford’s explosion onto the scene last year, and he’s a load at nearly 245 pounds.
Alabama counters with Deontae Lawson and one of three players – Trezmen Marshall, Kendrick Blackshire or Jihaad Campbell – in the middle, with an overflowing depth chart of outside linebackers. Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner will start, but Alabama used several three-OLB packages last week with Quandarrius Robinson as the extra man, and it was too much for MTSU to handle. Keanu Koht also continued his breakout spring performance with a strong first effort against the Blue Raiders. Alabama probably holds a slim edge in overall experience, but Ford may be the best overall linebacker on either team. Campbell, who missed the MTSU game, is expected back this week in some capacity.
As good as Alabama was a week ago, adding Campbell only ups the pressure. We’ll take Bama in a close one. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
There’s a lot of experience here but Texas hasn’t seemed to put it all together just yet. Ryan Watts anchors the cornerback group and Jerrin Thompson the safeties, but Arkansas transfer Jalen Catalon is being expected to shore up free safety. Jahdae Barron is active for a nickel safety, especially in the running game. Texas is still trying to identify the other starting corner, whether it’s holdover Terrance Brooks or Wake Forest transfer Gavin Holmes, who is a bit on the light side.
Alabama’s defensive backfield is expected to be the strength of its defense, and will be if the Tide can rope in the injuries a bit. Ga’Quincy McKinstry and Terrion Arnold will likely start at corner, with Caleb Downs at one of the safety spots. What happens after that depends on how well Malachi Moore and Jaylen Key can bounce back from minor injuries suffered in Week 1. If both are back, no problem. If one of the two are out, Arnold will probably move in to safety and Trey Amos will start at corner. Kristian Story, Earl Little and Jake Pope are the other names to watch at safety.
Assuming the training staff does its job, Alabama holds a fairly clear edge here. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is one of a few teams that can go head-to-head with Alabama in terms of athleticism on special teams. Xavier Worthy, Keilan Robinson and Jordan Whittington are all top-flight return men. Kicker Bert Auburn hit four of five field goal attempts against Alabama last year and ended up the year 21-of-26. Ryan Sanborn, a transfer from Stanford, is the new punter.
For the Tide, there was clear improvement in punter James Burnip from a year ago, and Will Reichard is as good as any kicker in the land. Ga’Quincy McKinstry is incredibly dangerous as a punt returner, but he took a shot to the head against MTSU and may need to play things safer going forward. Alabama has good coverage units, but we don’t know yet whether the necessary improvement in the kickoff return squad has been made. Until we do, it’s hard to discount what Texas brings to the table here. Advantage: Texas
OVERALL
Alabama leads in four categories, as does Texas. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, Texas’ defensive line should hold the advantage over Alabama’s offensive line. In theory, so should the Texas OL over the Alabama DL, but Texas’ offensive line was erratic at times last year and opened 2023 slowly. For now, we’ll call that matchup a push.
If this game were being played on a neutral field, the smart pick would be Texas. It controls one of the two OL-DL cross-matchups, pushes the other, holds a slim edge in special teams and also has the better situation at quarterback. That’s typically a recipe for success. But Texas has been a terrible road performer against ranked teams for about a decade now, and hasn’t shown enough prowess yet in the running game to make us believe it can control the ball against Bama.
There is also the Jalen Milroe factor. Again, the smart money would be on the bet that Milroe’s performance in the opener happened because it came against MTSU, and that he would be unlikely to repeat it against Texas. And maybe that’s true. But Milroe is also an explosive talent who can change the game with a few well-timed scrambles, as displayed against MTSU on his first touchdown run.
Were the locations of these two games switched – Alabama playing at home in 2022 but on the road in 2023 – we’d probably take Texas here. But the Longhorns have the poor fortune of playing in Bryant-Denny Stadium this time around, and there just aren’t enough areas in which Texas holds enough of an edge that we think an upset is forthcoming. This much is sure: The winner of this game will be an early favorite for an eventual playoff spot.
Alabama 23
Texas 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN