DEFENSE
The Blue Raiders put up a solid rushing defense last year, finishing 22nd in the country in the stat out of its straightforward 4-3 alignment. Total defense, though, came in at just 95th and scoring defense was 77th due to a pass defense that couldn’t really stop anyone. Alabama changed defensive coordinators from Pete Golding to Kevin Steele, but is expected to keep its familiar 3-4 over/under scheme. Of great focus this year for Alabama is getting stronger up front and not having to rely so much on the back end of the defense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Stockstill’s prowess as a recruiter is probably most evident here, as MTSU’s starting line is fully home-grown and size-wise, is competitive with even the top half of the SEC. Jordan Branch and Marley Cook will start at the tackles, with Zaylin Wood returning to start at one of the defensive end spot. The lone new starter is Quindarius Dunnigan, who beat out Richard Kinley in fall camp for the strongside DE job.
This is a veteran, upperclassman unit on the whole, and depth behind the starters is actually fairly stout. Jorden Starling and Demonte Smith are big bodies at tackle, while Kinley will share reserve DE duties with Oregon transfer Brandon Buckner. Alabama will start some mix of the following five players: Jaheim Oatis, Tim Smith, Justin Eboigbe, Tim Keenan and Jah-Marien Latham.
The biggest question is whether the coaches will continue to be patient with Smith, deferring to his immense potential, or if they will choose to move Oatis out from nosetackle in an effort to “inspire” Smith to become more consistent. The loss of Jamil Burroughs heading into fall camp was a big blow to this group, as it provided competition for Smith.
Latham is a coaches’ favorite and will be a fixture on passing downs, but he is noticeably smaller than the others and may have to play situationally. Damon Payne, Monkell Goodwine, Isaiah Hastings, James Smith, Khurtiss Perry and Anquin Barnes Jr. are other names that could see action. This is actually a very close call, because MTSU is more established and can go toe-to-toe with Alabama in regard to depth.
We think Alabama will ultimately develop past the Blue Raiders, but we can’t ignore the numbers this unit put up last year in Murfreesboro. MTSU’s defensive efficiency metrics were exceptional, and the Blue Raiders ranked 23rd in both sacks and tackles for loss in the running game. Advantage: MTSU
LINEBACKERS
MTSU has about average size for a base 4-3 linebacker group, and there’s good competition here for the two outside spots. Devyn Curtis started at middle linebacker as a freshman and returns for 2023; he has a bright future and has big-school size and speed. The other two spots will be held by a combination of three players, Parker Hughes, Drew Francis and Johnathan Butler. Francis was a starter for most of 2022 but Butler seems to have moved past him. Either way, it means MTSU will have at least one experienced player coming off the bench.
Alabama will start Deontae Lawson inside next to either Trezmen Marshall or Jihaad Campbell. Marshall, a Georgia transfer, will have his hands full all year keeping Campbell off the field. Outside, it’s Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell, with Quandarrius Robinson and Keanu Koht providing excellent depth. Justin Jefferson, Kendrick Blackshire and Shawn Murphy are the names to watch off the bench at ILB. Nothing against MTSU, which has a solid linebacker corps for a Conference USA team, but Alabama is easily on another level, likely the top linebacker group in the SEC, if not the country. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Size is not an issue for MTSU – three of its four starters are 6’2” or taller – but quality is. The Blue Raiders ranked a dismal 129th in raw pass defense in 2022 and were 68th in pass efficiency defense. Deonte Stanley and Teldrick Ross return as the starting cornerback due, and Tra Fluellen returns at free safety. Sophomore Jakobe Thomas is the new starter at strong safety.
We’ll have to see what develops behind this group in regard to the nickel and dime sets, although quality cornerback depth was enough of an issue that safety De’Arre McDonald, a Cincinnati transfer, was shifted to corner in the fall despite a heavy build. Emmanuel Mann, Jalen Jackson and Chris Johnson are the other backups.
Alabama will start Terrion Arnold and Ga’Quincy McKinstry at cornerback, and veteran Malachi Moore and true freshman Caleb Downs will probably be the starting safeties. After that, it’s figuring out the Star and dime spots and then a playing rotation, because Alabama added two transfers for depth (UAB’s Jaylen Key, Louisiana’s Trey Amos) and both are expected to play, along with Earl Little, Devonta Smith and Kristian Story.
The most likely scenario is Key and Little will be the fifth and sixth defensive backs, with Smith joining the fight once his foot is back to 100 percent. Alabama has an embarrassment of riches at this point. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Zeke Rankin returns as MTSU’s kicker, and he put up high-level numbers as a sophomore. He might be slightly range-limited but it’s not by enough to make him any kind of liability. The new punter is Mercer transfer Trey Turk, who Alabama faced two years ago. MTSU is solid in the return game but mediocre in coverage.
For Alabama, placekicker Will Reichard and punter James Burnip both return, along with punt returner Ga’Quincy McKinstry. The kickoff return unit is being rebuilt, but Alabama’s coverage teams are both expected to be among the best in the conference. MTSU is solid; Alabama is just better. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, MTSU in one, and by a very narrow margin in that one category (DL). As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama’s defensive line should be able to control the point of attack against MTSU’s offensive line. The other cross-matchup will be interesting to watch, because MTSU’s DL gets good penetration and plays with good technique against the run. The Blue Raiders were also adept at getting sacks last year, and Alabama is breaking in a new left tackle in Kadyn Proctor. Still, we think Alabama will prevail in both cross-matchups.
The rest of it goes solidly to Alabama. Other than perhaps special teams, MTSU is at a decided talent disadvantage in any other comparison regarding any other positional matchup. The Blue Raiders are solid for a C-USA team, but it’s a team built around castoffs from other programs, using a gimmick offensive system. Judging MTSU’s defensive backfield against Alabama’s receivers, for instance, makes Alabama’s receivers look much better than they probably are.
Still, MTSU isn’t a joke. The Blue Raiders beat Miami in Week 4 last year and finished with a quality bowl win over San Diego State. They are well-coached, heavy on the juniors and seniors, and don’t rattle easily.
But the Blue Raiders aren’t an SEC team, or even close to being one. The DL category, for instance, is being judged based off an uncommonly good depth chart for MTSU in 2023 along with a solid resume of results from a year ago. But would MTSU be able to put up those numbers if it played every week in the SEC? Probably not.
Of course, MTSU doesn’t have to play in the SEC every week to win this game. It just needs to play better than Alabama for 60 minutes and hope for the right bounces. That’s how the Blue Raiders upset Miami and San Diego State last year. It’s just going to take a lot more good bounces on the Blue Raiders’ part and a lot more mistakes on Alabama’s part to see a repeat of those two upsets of a year ago.
Far more likely is that Alabama’s superior speed and athleticism allow the Crimson Tide to run by the Blue Raiders. Alabama will apply continual pressure, magnify MTSU’s mistakes and probably prove to be too much in the end. Also, don’t discount the expected improvement in the Alabama defense. If all goes according to plan, Alabama fans can relax and get down to doing what they came for in the first place: dissecting the 2023 quarterback battle in every way imaginable.
Alabama 41
MTSU 10
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Week 01 Info:
- MTSU @ Alabama GameThreads
- MTSU @ Alabama Game Preview
- Alabama Depth Chart vs MTSU
- WEEK 01: Games on TV
- WEEK 01: SEC Predictions
- 2023 Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide
- Weekly News: 8/28/2023 Thru 9/4/2023
- Pick the Score: MTSU vs Alabama
- Pick’em Weeks: | 1 |