Ole Miss preview: Bama trying to stop the bleeding, even with playoffs out of reach

On top of that, Lane Kiffin has a lot on his plate. The Auburn job is open, and a lot of Tiger fans who want nothing more than to hurt Alabama at all costs are clamoring for their school’s administration to make Kiffin the top priority to replace Bryan Harsin. Then there’s Nick Saban’s job, which is not open, but is one that Kiffin covets, and beating Saban and Alabama would be akin to making a statement of qualifications in advance of a job interview.

On the field, Ole Miss has become an unlikely running team, especially with Lane Kiffin calling the plays. The Rebels are third nationally in rushing, and are doing it mostly behind a true freshman from Pike Road, Ala., that Alabama didn’t even recruit on a serious basis. Defensively, however, the Rebels started out on solid footing but have since fallen off badly, especially against the run.

OFFENSE

Kiffin’s offense is based out of the same one-back, pro-style spread Alabama’s offense is, but the Rebels have focused on running the ball and Kiffin has become an unlikely devotee of moving the ball the old-fashioned way. Ole Miss ranks 11^th in total offense, 3^rd in rushing, 79^th in passing and 16^th in scoring offense. Alabama has better balance overall – 23^rd in rushing, 28^th in passing, 6^th in scoring – but ranks 17^th in total offense, still a respectable figure. The biggest difference may be design of the respective offenses, and Alabama fans got an up-close viewing of Lane Kiffin was capable of doing during the time he was Alabama’s offensive coordinator.

RUNNING BACKS

When Ole Miss signed Quinshon Judkins out of Pike Road last February, nobody blinked. He was considered a good option for depth but was otherwise unremarkable. It’s a good bet other programs would like a second swing at recruiting him now. Judkins has rushed 180 times for 1,036 yards (5.8 avg.) and 13 touchdowns. He’s been good enough to make TCU transfer Zach Evans (108 carries, 680 yards, 6.3 avg., 7 TD) into a complementary piece. They’re the top one-two punch in the SEC at the moment, and in Judkins’ case especially, it gives Ole Miss an inside running threat that most teams lack. Ulysses Bentley IV adds depth.

For Alabama, Jahmyr Gibbs continues putting up big numbers, carrying 113 times for 771 yards (6.8 avg.) and 6 touchdowns, but the development of backups Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams has stalled a bit, likely a result of lingering effects of their leg injuries from last year. The one advantage Alabama has across the board is in how the Crimson Tide uses its running backs as receivers; Alabama is about four times more likely to throw to the backs as is Ole Miss. But while Gibbs is one of the most dynamic players in the sport right now, Ole Miss’ combo of Judkins and Evans is without peer within the SEC, with no drop-off from one to the next. Advantage: Ole Miss

WIDE RECEIVERS

While Alabama has struggled to get any kind of consistent receiver rotation going, Ole Miss has been able to cobble together a good starting unit, although there isn’t much depth. Malik Heath, Jordan Watkins and Jonathan Mingo have been reliable, especially Mingo, who is averaging a whopping 22.1 yards per catch. There isn’t much behind this trio, though, thanks to an injury to Jaylon Robinson, who will likely miss this game. Dayton Wade and J.J. Henry figure to get most of the bench snaps; they’ve combined for 17 catches for 188 yards on the year.

Tight end Michael Trigg was good for a couple of catches per game, but was lost for the season with a collarbone injury. Casey Kelly and Kyirin Heath now have to fill in.

Alabama compressed its playing rotation to roughly five players for the LSU loss – Jermaine Burton, Ja’Corey Brooks, JoJo Earle, Kobe Prentice and Isaiah Bond. Traeshon Holden, a starter for most of the year, didn’t play much if at all. Brooks has been the team’s leading wideout for much of the year, but had a couple of critical drops against LSU and unfortunately, that’s part of the deal with him. It will be interesting to see if the rotation stays as is this week.

Cameron Latu gives Bama an edge at tight end, and Kendall Randolph is a good situational blocker there. Despite Bama’s edge at tight end, Ole Miss has far more experience in its receiver unit, and Mingo’s abilities downfield give the Rebels something Alabama has yet to develop. Advantage: Ole Miss

OFFENSIVE LINE

While Alabama’s line has improved since the beginning of the year, and typically does enough to allow the offense to put up substantial production, the Rebel offensive line was deemed perhaps the best in the conference in the preseason, and has really done nothing since to lose that ranking. The Rebels rank 69^th in tackles for loss allowed, which is understandable given how much priority they put on the running game, but rank 4^th nationally in sacks allowed. Micah Pettus and Jayden Williams will start at the tackles, with Caleb Warren at center and Jeremy James, Nick Broeker and Eli Acker all in the mix at guard.

Alabama will start J.C. Latham and Tyler Steen at the tackles, with Javion Cohen, Emil Ekiyor Jr. and Tyler Booker working at guard. Seth McLaughlin will start at center, but still had a noticeable limp against LSU, and Darrian Dalcourt may see some action there. Alabama is 38^th in sacks allowed and 53^rd in tackles for loss allowed, but has the superstar here in Latham at right tackle. Despite Latham’s presence, Ole Miss has done a better job playing cohesively and is better in the running game. Advantage: Ole Miss

DEFENSE

Ole Miss operates more from a traditional four-man front, basing from a 4-2-5. While productive in getting to the passer, in recent games this group has been tested. The Rebels have fallen to a ranking of 69^th in total defense, 78^th against the run, and are 61^st in raw pass defense and 65^th in pass efficiency defense. While better than Alabama at forcing turnovers, the Rebels rank just 49^th in turnover margin and aren’t very dynamic on defense. Alabama brings its 3-4 over/under scheme to this game, ranking 12^th in total defense, 11^th against the run, 29^th in raw pass defense and 8^th in pass efficiency defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Ole Miss gets decent production from its ends, Cedric Johnson and Tavius Robinson, and backup Jared Ivey is just as good as the starters. But there is precious little depth otherwise on the edges, with only Demon Clowney and Brandon Mack seeing much time. The bigger issue is up the middle, where K.D. Hill and J.J. Pegues have been underwhelming for most of the year. Jamond Gordon, Isaiah Iton and Tywone Malone offer depth, but no one has jumped off the page.

Unfortunately for Alabama, it’s much the same story. Byron Young has put together a very effective senior season, and checks the all-important box of making his teammates better when he’s on the field. But lately, he’s been the only thing to write home about. D.J. Dale and Jaheim Oatis have been acceptable at nosetackle, but Alabama needs more out of Tim Smith, Jamil Burroughs and Jah-Marien Latham outside. Young is by far the best option on either roster, but there’s more consistency across the board for Ole Miss and arguably better depth as well. Advantage: Ole Miss

LINEBACKERS

Troy Brown and Austin Keys collect a lot of tackles, but for inside linebackers in a 4-2 set, neither is particularly effective at penetrating the backfield or chasing down quarterbacks. Brown is good in coverage, though, and has a knack for knocking down passes, but otherwise this unit needs some help to be effective. Ashanti Cistrunk is a solid tackler off the bench, but the wild card is TCU transfer Khari Coleman, who leads the team with 8.5 tackles for loss and is among the leaders with 3.5 sacks despite not being a full-time starter. He isn’t particularly big, but he can turn a game around unlike any of the other options.

Alabama will counter with Henry To’o To’o and Jaylen Moody inside, with Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell at outside linebacker. Deontae Lawson provides depth inside. This almost isn’t a fair comparison, given how many ways Alabama uses its linebackers, to say nothing of having two additional linebacker positions. But as long as Bama can hold Coleman in check, the rest of this matchup falls very favorably to the Tide. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Alabama can press an edge at cornerback, where LSU will start JUCO transfer Deantre Prince and true freshman Davison Igbinosun. Miles Battle and Markevious Brown provide depth there. Prince has shown a knack for breaking up passes, recording 9 PBUs, but none of the other players have made much of an impact. A.J. Finley and Isheem Young will start at the high safeties, while Tysheem Johnson and Georgia transfer Otis Reese play nickel and dime safeties. Reese, as one would imagine coming over from Georgia, is probably the closest thing Ole Miss has to a game-changer in its backfield.

For Alabama, cornerbacks Ga’Quincy McKinstry and Eli Ricks are both a few steps up from any Rebel corner, while safeties Jordan Battle, DeMarcco Hellams, Brian Branch and Malachi Moore have plenty of experience and can account for big plays. The big question here for Alabama is whether Kiffin will try to leverage the weakness Alabama’s high safeties have in covering slot receivers. Even so, across the board, Alabama has superior experience and depth, and holds a big edge at the corner spots. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS

Caden Costa has been suspended most of this season for a substance violation, but Ole Miss hasn’t really missed a beat with Jonathan Cruz and Christian Schanefelt. Cruz is the primary kicker and has gone 9-for-10 for the year, missing only a 50-plus-yarder. The Rebels rank 31^st in net punting, with Fraser Masin handling those duties. The Rebels are ok in punt and kick returns, but punt return defense could use some work.

Alabama will start Will Reichard at kicker and James Burnip at punter; both are having solid years. Alabama’s punt-return game, ranked 3^rd nationally, can change games. Coverage units have been sound. There’s nothing wrong, really, with either team’s special teams units; Alabama has just been more dynamic in returns, and Reichard has been very reliable late in games. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, as does Ole Miss. Aside from probably linebacker, though, all of Alabama’s leads are by fairly close margins. As for OL-DL cross-matchups, that’s where the Rebels pull ahead. Alabama OL holds a slim edge over Ole Miss’ DL, but when the ball is in the Rebels’ hands, the Rebel offensive line holds a large edge over Alabama’s defensive line.

Couple that with this being a road game, the aforementioned “job interview” opportunity Kiffin believes he has been afforded, and Alabama’s mindset regarding being (probably) eliminated from national title contention, and suddenly Alabama is in danger of losing a third regular-season game – a possibility that was given virtually zero chance of coming true in the preseason.