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DEFENSE
When Kevin Steele jumped ship from Nick Saban’s staff the last time, he took the 3-4 over/under defense with him to Auburn, although in recent years it has morphed into more of a 4-2-5 base look. It’s become a blend this year, with a lot of 3-3-5 nickel looks, managing a downturn in the quality of the front seven as the NFL raided Auburn for talent. In 2020, Auburn’s defense has lacked an edge. Sacks and tackles for loss have hit uninspiring levels. Overall, Auburn has sunk to 61st in total defense; Alabama is 35th despite perceptions that the defense was in retrograde after the Ole Miss circus. Auburn is 64th in both rush defense and raw pass defense – not the kind of balance the Tigers are looking for.
DEFENSIVE LINE
The lack of pure defensive tackle depth has been something Auburn has had to work around, and the solution has been to beef up a defensive end, Daquan Newkirk, and make him a tackle to go along with Tyrone Truesdell. Truesdell’s season hasn’t gone as well as hoped; he has no sacks or QB pressures on the year and has only made 1.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. The low totals in tackles for loss (67th) and sacks (59th) has been an issue for Auburn, and the lack of middle pressure is probably the most glaring symptom of a larger problem. Even Newkirk’s impact has been muted in that regard despite coming to Auburn as one of the top JUCO DLs in the country a year ago.
Outside, Markaviest Bryant and Colby Wooden have been the go-tos for most of the year, although Bryant has battled injuries and never developed into the force Auburn had hoped for. It’s been Wooden, a freshman, who has led the defensive line with 3 sacks – the only lineman with multiple sacks. Wooden is rostered as a linebacker, but he almost always plays as an end, with his hand down. Marquis Burks and Zykeivous Walker, the reserve tackles, have been inconsistent, but even that is a preferable situation to defensive end, where Wooden essentially has no backup and Auburn has had to move linebackers around when he’s not on the field.
For Alabama, D.J. Dale and Phidarian Mathis are splitting nosetackle for now, as Mathis has improved enough to begin pushing Dale hard for the spot. Tim Smith provides depth in the middle, and has the look of a future star. At end, Justin Eboigbe and Christian Barmore will start with Byron Young backing up both sides. LaBryan Ray continues to get back into playing shape and will be available this week, but his snap count will have to be managed. The emergence of Mathis and Smith inside has made Alabama more versatile, and better at run gap control. Depth is solidly in Bama’s favor as well. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Ever since the Ole Miss game, Alabama’s linebackers have been under scrutiny, and by and large, the last three weeks especially have been better than what came before them. Most of that has to do with Christian Harris’ improvement at weakside linebacker, to the point that he is arguably a bigger key to the defense at weakside than Dylan Moses is at middle linebacker. With the light going on for Harris, the next item of business has been getting true freshman Jack linebacker Will Anderson Jr. more active in the defense, and it’s been a steady progression albeit a slow one. Christopher Allen has developed into a good pass rusher and effective against option running teams.
Auburn will start Owen Pappoe and Zakoby McClain at inside linebacker, and the two players lead the team in tackles. Pappoe has made more key plays, especially against the pass, but neither player has jumped off the page. Derick Hall will start opposite Colby Wooden as linebacker-ends, although Hall gets pulled off the field a lot for extra defensive backs and Wooden is considered more of a down player. Neither team uses many subs, although T.D. Moultry will rotate in at Jack sometimes for Auburn and Ben Davis at the same position for Alabama.
A lot of this is going to come down to whether Moses is having a good day for Alabama. He was shut out of the stat sheet against Kentucky, a rather shocking development that has refocused attention on a conversation of his development as a player in 2020. Pappoe and McClain aren’t what Auburn has been accustomed to having, but they’re quality players. Advantage: Auburn
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The safety duo of Smoke Monday and Jamien Sherwood gives Auburn two players who do a good job of providing run support while also being able to turn and run with receivers. Roger McCreary has one of the corner slots nailed down and is another DB with good run awareness. The issue for Auburn has been the opposite corner position, which is either going to be Nehemiah Pritchett or Jaylin Simpson, along with a lack of production from Star safety Christian Tutt. Auburn has struggled with the secondary many times over Malzahn’s tenure, and while no one jumps off the page as a true weak spot, the production simply hasn’t been there.
While Auburn is stronger at safety, Alabama’s cornerback combo of Patrick Surtain II and Josh Jobe has been lights-out for much of 2020. Jobe is physical to the point of being rude, while Surtain is the league’s best cover corner. Surtain has also improved his play against the run, while Jobe relishes the contact. The issue for Alabama has been free safety, where Daniel Wright starts but continues to be pushed by DeMarcco Hellams. True freshmen Malachi Moore and Brian Branch are at Star and dime respectively, but despite being true freshmen, both have played remarkably sound assignment football – especially Moore, the best true freshman DB Alabama has had since Minkah Fitzpatrick hit campus.
Both teams have an issue or two, but Alabama gets the slim edge here as its cornerback duo is better than Auburn’s safety duo, although both pairs are top-notch. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama continues to see its kicking situation in a solid place, with Charlie Scott at punter and Will Reichard at placekicker. Where Alabama is potentially in trouble here is in the return game. Slade Bolden’s ankle injury could put Alabama down to its third punt returner of the year, which appears will be DeVonta Smith or maybe Patrick Surtain. Trey Sanders is already off the kick return team, with Brian Robinson first in line to replace him. If Bolden is off that unit as well, Smith would appear to be his replacement, with perhaps one of the true freshman running backs next up.
For Auburn, punting duties have been split between Oscar Chapman and Aiden Marshall, with Marshall the much better option so far. Anders Carlson isn’t as good as his brother Daniel was, but he’s still missed just two kicks, a PAT and a midrange field goal attempt, in 2020. Auburn has been solid on punt and kickoff returns this year. The Tigers cover punts well but have had an issue on kickoff coverage. Alabama is steadily improving on special teams, but isn’t quite up to Auburn’s level yet. Advantage: Auburn
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Auburn in two, but a couple of categories (LB, WR) could go either way. In regards to OL-DL cross-matchups, though, Alabama strongly controls both, and that’s likely what will drive the outcome of this game.
Auburn’s offensive line is a mess at the moment, and wasn’t all that good before the players started dropping like flies. Auburn’s defensive line isn’t terrible, but going up against an offensive line like the one Alabama has, the Tigers are overmatched.
The caveat to all of this, of course, is the loss of Nick Saban for Alabama and what it will mean for in-game adjustments. Alabama’s modus operandi in 2020 has been to feel out opponents in the first half, then make keen adjustments at halftime and pull away in the second half. There will be no Saban in the locker room to engineer those adjustments this week. Alabama will likely promote Mike Stoops or Charlie Strong to an on-field position this week to help, but it certainly won’t be the same as having Saban around.
The good news for Alabama? The key matchup is the one of the trenches, not something more esoteric like a certain DB-WR matchup on certain downs and distances. Fundamental OL-DL mismatches tend to ignore coaching somewhat; there isn’t much Gus Malzahn can do at this point to make a better scenario for his offensive line.
Auburn has been, decidedly, a thorn in Alabama’s side for much of the Nick Saban era. But those issues typically occur in the stadium on the other side of the state, and in years in which Auburn has a better team than the one it fields in 2020.
Alabama 45
Auburn 24
Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN
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