DEFENSE
Texas A&M has put up better numbers in 2019 under its 4-3 base defense, but just as the offensive line may have been negatively affected by the competition it has played, Texas A&M’s defense might have gotten a boost by playing offenses that just aren’t very good. The Aggies rank 23rd overall, 29th against the run, 31st in raw pass defense and 16th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama’s 3-4 over/under, meanwhile, has not been so fortunate, but it isn’t far off: 35th overall, 51st against the run, 30th in raw pass defense, 19th in pass efficiency defense. The big difference here is the Aggies are much healthier.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Junior tackle Justin Madubuike has been a disruptor for the Aggies this year, tallying 6 tackles for loss and 2 sacks, both team highs. Perhaps not by accident, his success has spilled over to end Tyree Johnson, who has posted the best numbers of the outside group by virtue of getting to line up next to Madubuike.
The other two starters, tackle Bobby Brown and end Michael Clemons, have done very little. Clemons has racked up decent tackle numbers, but has only 0.5 tackles behind the line and seems to just clean up the trash. Depth has been the bigger issue; tackles Josh Rogers and Jayden Peevy have been solid but the reserve ends have just taken up space. Tyree Wilson, a third-teamer at the beginning of the season, is the only one to have had any success since then.
Alabama is mostly trying to get healthy. D.J. Dale should be back in the middle this week after playing less than half the game against Ole Miss. Raekwon Davis will start at strongside end. Weakside end has been a question mark, with true freshmen Byron Young and Justin Eboigbe battling with Phidarian Mathis to hold the spot down until LaBryan Ray can return. Ray won’t be back this week.
Tevita Musika and Mathis are the backups inside. Neither team is lighting up the stat sheet, but against, Texas A&M is healthier, and Madubuike has been the only player on either side to show the kind of consistency that makes opposing teams game-plan around him. Advantage: Texas A&M
LINEBACKERS
Texas A&M chooses to play nickel and dime packages so often that strongside linebacker Ikenna Okeke basically doesn’t play. That leaves all the linebacking to the middle linebacker (Buddy Johnson) and weakside starter (Anthony Hines III). Johnson is the team’s leading tackler, and is second on the team with 5.5 tackles for loss. Johnson has a sack, a pass breakup and two QB hurries, so he can make plays behind the line. The surprising aspect here is that Hines has only 22 tackles through five games and 2 tackles for loss. It’s either Johnson or nothing in many cases.
Alabama counters with two of the best outside linebackers in the business, Anfernee Jennings and Terrell Lewis. The fact Jennings has recorded 29 tackles, 5 TFLs, 3 sacks and 3 QB hurries from an outside spot is fairly shocking. Lewis’ numbers trail those of Jennings, but Alabama has kept him benched in some games and managed his snaps in others to keep the elite-but-fragile senior fresh as the season has gone along.
Inside, Shane Lee and Christian Harris have played about as well as true freshman inside linebackers in a Nick Saban defense have any right to, but Harris has gotten lost far too often against spread offenses. Brandon Ale Kaho has relieved him twice in those situations, but he was seen at practice this week nursing some kind of leg injury.
Alabama has been without Markail Benton the last couple of weeks, but he seems to be back this week and could be a factor. Again, there a lot of similarities here, as neither team’s linebackers have really lit up the highlight reels, but Bama gets the nod here thanks to Jennings and Lewis being healthy and playing at a high level. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Texas A&M has gotten better results in 2019 by basically benching anyone who had started in previous years. Cornerback Charles Oliver and safety Larry Pryor still have key roles, but they’re playing now mostly in the shadow of players like true freshman Demani Richardson and former role player Debione Renfro. Miles Jones and Leon O’Neal round out the starting group. Texas A&M has tallied 6 interceptions, 17 pass break-ups and 18 QB hurries, numbers very similar to what Alabama has put up.
The Crimson Tide will start Trevon Diggs and Patrick Surtain II at the cornerbacks, with Xavier McKinney and Jared Mayden at safety. Shyheim Carter, Josh Jobe and Jordan Battle will provide depth, but Jobe has his left hand in a cast this week and may not play as much as he has been. If Jobe can’t go at all, look for Jalyn Armour-Davis, Jeffery Carter or Marcus Banks to fill that slot, or perhaps safety Daniel Wright. Alabama’s starters have an edge in overall experience, as this is a veteran unit. Alabama also has better athleticism across the board. It’s not a huge edge, but it is a measurable one. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s not clear yet whether Will Reichard will be handling kicks for Alabama this week, but it seems Tide coaches do expect him to do so. Joseph Bulovas had a decent outing against Ole Miss filling in for Reichard, but a short missed field goal probably kept Bulovas from really making a case for keeping the job. As for punter, it appears Skyler DeLong will still get the nod, although Mike Bernier and freshman walk-on Ty Perine are pushing. Reichard probably will be held out of competing for this job in the near future, at least, to preserve his health.
While Alabama has been stymied on kickoff returns, mostly due to opponents utilizing pooch kicks to take the ball out of Bama’s returners’ hands, Alabama has some of the best punt return, punt coverage and kick coverage units in the nation. Texas A&M will start Seth Small at placekicker, who has been automatic from all but long distances. Braden Mann is averaging nearly 50 yards per punt, far outclassing what Alabama has done.
Texas A&M has been decent on punt returns, but kickoff returns have been subpar. Most notably, the Aggies don’t cover kicks well, which could bode well for Bama’s Jaylen Waddle. Alabama leads just about everywhere besides the actual kicking of the football, which of course is the biggest part of this category.
Until Alabama can get one of the two under control, kicking or punting, it’s going to be tough to ever give Alabama the edge here except against the worst of teams. Advantage: Texas A&M
OVERALL
Alabama leads in five categories, Texas A&M in three. Several categories are fairly close calls. As for OL-DL matchups, that’s a tough one. While Texas A&M holds the edge in both the individual comparisons, the comparison of the A&M defensive line against the Alabama offensive line is a push. There will be lots of stalemates up front this Saturday.
Having said that, if this game is going to come down to which quarterback will make the most plays behind (and over) a back-and-forth situation up front, give us Tua Tagovailoa and Alabama’s receivers. The primary difference between these two teams is explosiveness – on offense, in the return game and even in the secondary. Alabama holds the edges in all three of those situations, and thus should win this game.
Texas A&M is slowly getting better, but the defensive talent in particular just isn’t there yet. With the Aggie running game unable to keep the heat off Kellen Mond, too, this could be one of those games where Alabama just steadily pulls away until the margin is too big to overcome, a la South Carolina earlier in 2019.
Alabama 38
Texas A&M 20
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Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN