DEFENSE
Mike MacIntyre’s first order of business was to get the Rebels into a true 3-4 alignment, which involved some jostling of roles and will probably take the better part of the 2019 season to come together. Ole Miss is 71st in total defense, 114th in raw pass defense and 84th in pass efficiency defense, but has done very well against the run (25th) all things considered. Scoring defense has also been respectable at 48th. This is a risk/reward defensive scheme but one that hasn’t been tested by an offense as good as Alabama’s yet.
The Crimson Tide’s 3-4 over/under ranks 24th in total defense, 29th against the run, 35th in raw pass defense and 20th in pass efficiency defense, but has been tough when the chips are down, ranking 9th in scoring defense and 9th in the red zone. Ole Miss ranks just 76th there.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Ole Miss ranks 20th in sacks, although just 3 of the team’s 12 sacks have come from the starting trio of nosetackle Benito Jones and ends Ryder Anderson and Josiah Coatney. Overall, though, the three get consistent pressure up the middle and help set the terms of the running game. Alabama will have to contend with each, and it bears mentioning Jones was rumored to have considered entering the transfer portal following the 2018 season – with the subsequent intention of coming to Bama. He and Coatney, in particular, are good players. If Ole Miss has a depth issue, it’s in the middle, where Quentin Bivens and Patrick Lucas are a substantial step down from Jones. Austrian Robinson and Tariqious Tisdale are hybrid ends/tackles that can do a lot of things off the edge; Robinson has been chosen to wear Chucky Mullins’ No. 38 jersey, which gives you an idea of how his motor runs.
For Alabama, it appears Phidarian Mathis will start at nosetackle for this game, with Justin Eboigbe and Raekwon Davis on the edges. D.J. Dale was injured against Southern Miss and his status is uncertain. With Mathis going to the middle, Byron Young and Christian Barmore become the last two outside players with any experience. Braylen Ingraham and Ishmael Sopsher are also available, but Sopsher is more of an inside presence; neither have played. Tevita Musika and Stephon Wynn Jr. will back up Mathis, and Wynn can play outside if needed. The best single player on either side is Alabama’s Davis, but Ole Miss’ starters take up spots 2, 3 and 4 due to injuries on the Crimson Tide’s side. As such, this is a surprise edge to the visitors this week. Advantage: Ole Miss
LINEBACKERS
Ole Miss suffered as big a loss as Alabama did when the Tide lost Dylan Moses for the year. For Ole Miss, it was Mohamed Sanogo, and although he probably won’t be gone for the year, he’ll at least be gone through this game and probably a few more. Without Sanogo available, Willie Hibbler is taking his spot, but he’s more of a caretaker than a playmaker. Outside linebackers Qaadir Sheppard, Sam Williams and Charles Wiley have formed a nice rotation, and Wiley is particularly adept at rushing the passer. Jacquez Jones and Lakia Henry are exceptionally active inside.
Alabama will counter with true freshmen Shane Lee and Christian Harris inside, but again, injuries have reared their head outside. Anfernee Jennings will start at Jack linebacker this week, but Terrell Lewis may not be available at strongside linebacker. If he’s not, Christopher Allen has quietly had a solid year off the bench as a pass rusher, but depth suddenly goes away. King Mwikuta, Ben Davis and Jarez Parks will have to be ready. With everyone healthy, Alabama would lead this category, just as it would the defensive line. But Ole Miss is healthier and, as a result, much deeper. Advantage: Ole Miss
DEFENSIVE BACKS
No close call here, as Ole Miss has been one step up from terrible. It’s especially curious given how strong the Rebels have been on the pass rush. Myles Hartsfield was the only returning starter back here for the Rebels, and he’ll get the call at corner opposite either Keidron Smith or Jaylon Jones, as that position is up for grabs. Jon Haynes and Jalen Julius will start at the safeties, with Armani Linton and C.J. Miller the backups there. Alabama counters with one of the best secondaries in the business: corners Patrick Surtain II and Trevon Diggs, backed up by Josh Jobe, and safeties Xavier McKinney, Shyheim Carter, Jordan Battle and Jared Mayden, backed up by Daniel Wright. Unlike Ole Miss’ situation, there is competition on the Alabama side, but it’s from top-level players making each other better rather than coaches scrambling for the right combination. Everything about this comparison comes up Bama. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Neither team has been all that solid in the kicking game. Ole Miss has had issues covering both kicks and punts, and the Rebels have been awful on kickoff returns. Alabama’s kickoff return numbers don’t look much better, but the last two weeks have seen kickers go short to Alabama’s up-men on purpose, which has killed averages. Ole Miss has punted far better (ranked 30th in net punting) and is 25th in kickoff returns, but is 127th on punt returns. And then there is the kicking situation. Unbelievably, Alabama is dealing with an injury here, as well, as Will Reichard could miss this game with a hip flexor injury. If he does, then 2018 kicker Joseph Bulovas will handle all placement duties next week in his place. Alabama’s punting situation is struggling once more, and with Reichard out, Skyler DeLong finds himself again trying to stay ahead of walk-on Mike Bernier. Bernier stabilized the punting game in 2018 when he took over from the Tennessee game forward, so it will be interesting to see if the coaches throw the white flag on DeLong again in 2019, and when that might happen. Ole Miss placekicker Luke Logan has missed a PAT and has missed all three of his field goal attempts longer than 35 yards. Shockingly, Alabama seems to be in better shape here. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Ole Miss in two, but this could easily be a 4-4 split if the running back and special teams categories flipped. On the other hand, injuries are the only things sending the DL and LB categories Ole Miss’ way. In regard to the OL-DL cross-matchups, each team’s DL holds the edge over the opposing OL, which would be true regardless of Alabama’s injury situation along the defensive line.
Given how each team has looked, it’s a bit bracing to note how close they look on paper. But that’s until you get to the QB, WR and OL categories. Alabama’s offense is so far beyond Ole Miss’ offense right now that the Rebels simply can’t keep up. And the worst matchup on the field is Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa versus the Ole Miss secondary, which hasn’t been able to stop anyone regardless of how well the Rebel front seven has played.
As such, this game probably won’t be close for long. Ole Miss is probably going to have a tough time scoring on more than one of every third possession, while Alabama might just be able to score every time it has the ball, at least until Tagovailoa is pulled.
That’s how Alabama intends to win games this year: Pressure from the skill positions and the passing game, until the opposing defense just can’t take anymore, and the opposing offense finally makes too many mistakes trying to keep the pace. It’s how Alabama beat South Carolina, and it will probably be how Alabama beats Ole Miss this week, by a similar score.
Alabama 45
Ole Miss 17
Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN