SEC Preview and Predictions: Week 5

By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 27, 2017

Last week’s record: 8-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 39-5 (88.6%)

The Predictions Dept. got back in the saddle with its third perfect week in four tries, but there is ground to be made up following the 5-5 debacle of Week 3. For Week 5, Alabama may have the game of the week, facing an Ole Miss team that has given the Crimson Tide fits in recent years. Georgia faces Tennessee and Auburn takes on Mississippi State in other key matchups.

VANDERBILT at FLORIDA
Florida pulled victory from the jaws of defeat after letting Kentucky take it to the wire last week. But as much as Florida head coach Jim McElwain would like to deflect questions on how the Wildcats managed to get so close to upsetting his Gators, at least he’s not Vanderbilt’s Derek Mason, trying to explain away a 59-0 loss to Alabama that made Vandy look like a high school team. If this game had been held the week before Alabama, we might be inclined to take the Commodores in an upset, but few teams do well the week after facing Alabama, particularly teams that get their two best defensive players nicked up along with their starting quarterback.
Florida 27
Vanderbilt 13

MISSISSIPPI at ALABAMA
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GEORGIA at TENNESSEE
What Tennessee did last week against UMass could barely be called a victory; it may have gotten the Volunteers a mark in the win column, but the questions are flying fast and furious over Butch Jones’ fitness to continue to lead the UT program. This week, Tennessee gets a Georgia team that appears to have turned a corner and is establishing itself as the beast of the East. Tennessee isn’t getting the QB play currently it will need to stay with Georgia, and defensively, the Volunteers are in a tenuous position due to injuries and a lack of good depth. The game is in Neyland Stadium, which is all UT has going for it.
Georgia 34
Tennessee 17

EASTERN MICHIGAN at KENTUCKY
Don’t look now, but Chris Creighton is one of the NCAA’s young coaches to watch, and Eastern Michigan has notched wins over Rutgers and Charlotte but fell last week to Ohio in overtime. Ordinarily, it probably wouldn’t be an issue against an SEC team, but this is a Kentucky team that just got finished doing the most Kentucky thing imaginable, blowing a lead late against Florida and losing in heartbreaking fashion. And now the Wildcats have to figure how to get up for Eastern Michigan. Don’t be surprised if this one goes longer than it should before the eventual winner emerges. Kentucky has some soul-searching to do.
Kentucky 23
E. Michigan 20

SOUTH CAROLINA at TEXAS A&M
The Gamecocks got off to a quick start, but nearly saw all their good work fizzle out when Louisiana Tech came within just a few seconds of pulling an upset last week. Texas A&M, meanwhile, could not have started the season off any worse, but the Aggies have clearly improved – or at least, have emotionally rebounded from their opening loss to UCLA. So where are these two teams intersecting? South Carolina was probably better set up for success prior to the start of the season, but it’s hard to overlook what Texas A&M is capable of on offense. With the game in College Station, A&M just feels like a safer bet.
Texas A&M 31
South Carolina 20

NEW MEXICO STATE at ARKANSAS
Don’t look now, but New Mexico State is 2-2. It’s always noteworthy when the Aggies aren’t oh-and-something, and wins over rival New Mexico and UTEP – the latter by an impressive 41-14 score – suggest that Arkansas can’t simply roll the third team out there and win. For once, the second team will have to do.
Arkansas 38
New Mexico St. 13

MISSISSIPPI STATE at AUBURN
Mississippi State got exposed against Georgia last week, as the lack of total team talent caught up to the Bulldogs. Auburn is coming off a nice win over Missouri, but Missouri is a train wreck and it’s not really clear just how much progress Auburn actually made. Mississippi State is always an interesting matchup for Auburn since the Bulldog defense sees a very similar offense in practice scrimmages. But the issue here is whether State’s mediocre offensive skill groups can score on a defense that has proven itself to be either elite, or at least close enough to act like it. This will take a monumental effort on both sides of the ball from MSU to pull the upset.
Auburn 24
Mississippi St. 16

TROY at LOUISIANA STATE
Exactly what’s going on at LSU may confound many a Tiger fan, but unfortunately it simply looks like Ed Orgeron is again in over his head. After getting creamed by Mississippi State, LSU did its darndest to make Syracuse look like a threat, and now it gets a Troy team that historically feasts on being an underdog. Troy’s only meaningful game this year was also its only loss, a 24-13 defeat to Boise State in the opener. Since then, it’s been three wins over bottom-feeders. LSU may be blundering its way through the schedule right now, but Troy is ill-equipped to stop the Tigers.
LSU 40
Troy 20

IDLE: Missouri

Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN