SEC Preview and Predictions: Week 3

By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 13, 2017

Last week’s record: 12-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 26-0 (100.0%)

For only the second time in our history, the Predictions Dept. has opened up with two perfect weeks in a row – and the record would likely have been better had Hurricane Irma not stolen the gimme pick of Florida over Northern Colorado from us. This week’s slate of games is headlined by Florida-Tennessee, and it’s tough to find a B-game pick. Either Ole Miss-Cal or Kentucky-South Carolina will have to do.

TENNESSEE at FLORIDA
Florida opened up a favorite in this game, which has to be a nod to where the game will be played. Otherwise, it makes no sense. Florida was throttled in its opener against Michigan, and the source of the throttling – weak line play on both sides – made it an even more foreboding result. Tennessee is again battling numerous injuries and almost came out of Week 1 with its own loss, but the point is the Volunteers found a way to win. Tennessee has enough talent that it can control both lines of scrimmage in this matchup, and once that is settled, the rest sort of falls into place by itself. Florida doesn’t know who its quarterback is going to be, while Tennessee seems to have developed some capacity at running back, which was a black hole heading into fall camp. Unless Jim McElwain has some magic tricks to pull, this one looks like a comfortable UT win.
Tennessee 30
Florida 20

COLORADO STATE at ALABAMA
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SAMFORD at GEORGIA
Two sets of Bulldogs face off in Athens, but one of these ’Dawgs is not like the other. Despite fielding a perpetually pesky team, Samford has little chance here. Georgia, a week removed from beating Notre Dame on the road, has bigger fish to fry beginning next week when its conference slate opens.
Georgia 45
Samford 14

KENTUCKY at SOUTH CAROLINA
Suddenly this game means something. South Carolina is riding a wave of confidence at the moment and Columbia is a tough place to play. Kentucky should be commended for taking care of business against two overmatched opponents, but the Wildcats only did so by a smidge. The offense, which was supposed to be the stronger side of the ball for Mark Stoops’ team, so far has failed to launch. Kentucky doesn’t need to rely solely on the defense in this game, because the Gamecocks have found something at quarterback and are playing with confidence. This game, and each team’s subsequent matchup with Tennessee, will likely determine the No. 2 spot in the SEC East.
South Carolina 28
Kentucky 23

PURDUE at MISSOURI
If you’re looking for a game that could be unexpectedly entertaining, here it is. Purdue nearly knocked off Louisville in the opener and then clubbed a pretty good Ohio team in Week 2. Missouri beat a directional FCS school by a basketball score in Week 1, then fell to South Carolina by three scores last week and fired its defensive coordinator. So all heck has already broken loose in Missouri. Now it’s time to see how long it takes the Tigers to find their footing. Purdue wasn’t expected to do much in 2017, but suddenly has found a capable offense. The real issue here? Missouri, a week into not having an actual defensive coordinator, is ranked 15 spots higher in total defense rankings than is Purdue. The score in this one may ultimately resemble an SEC-Big Ten Basketball Challenge game than a football contest.
Purdue 45
Missouri 39

KANSAS STATE at VANDERBILT
The Commodores are undefeated. The euphoria likely ends this week, though, as Kansas State comes to town. In Vandy’s defense, though, it’s almost impossible to tell from the schedules so far what either team has. Kansas State has wins over Charlotte and Central Arkansas; Vanderbilt has beaten MTSU and Alabama A&M. The scariest of those four opponents couldn’t even rate as a stunt double in “It.” Both KSU and Vandy should finish among their respective conference’s leaders in defense, but until we see an offense come out of Nashville, we won’t believe one exists there.
Kansas State 27
Vanderbilt 17

MERCER at AUBURN
Before Alabama has to face powerhouse Mercer in November, Auburn will first soften them up. Mercer is in just its fifth season of football after reviving the sport following a 70-year absence. When the Wikipedia page for a program lists, under its “Notable Former Players” section, that a Mercer alum was the first secretary of Nashville Baptist Church’s Sunday school program, you know you’re not exactly dealing with wistful-eyed tales of Knute Rockne and George Gipp. Auburn is coming off a 14-6 loss to Clemson that has Tiger fans loudly questioning Gus Malzahn’s offense. This is exactly the game Auburn needs to state its case that the emperor does, in fact, wear clothes.
Auburn 55
Mercer 0

LOUISIANA STATE at MISSISSIPPI STATE
So far, these two teams have played about to expectations in 2017, so this one should pretty much go like the preseason script dictates. And the script is as simple as a spaghetti western: If LSU can contain Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald, the Tigers win the game. Despite good point production against BYU and Chattanooga, LSU’s offense doesn’t scare anyone, especially through the air. If State is to pull this upset, not only must Fitzgerald play the game of his life, but the Bulldogs have to shut down the LSU passing game while at least managing the damage LSU’s top-flight running game can dish out. If LSU were to lose here, those Tiger fans who are already uneasy with the ascension of Ed Orgeron to the head coach’s seat would come flying out of the woodwork.
LSU 30
Mississippi St. 27

MISSISSIPPI at CALIFORNIA
Cal has won its first two games but its defense has struggled to stop both good teams (North Carolina) and bad ones (Weber State). Ole Miss, though, has unexpectedly done the same, giving up 20+ points to both South Alabama and UT-Martin. With the amount of offensive firepower both these teams possess, we could be looking at a light show to rival anything Disney could produce. Cal might have an advantage in such a matchup, if not for the fact that the Golden Bears may hold speed advantages over most opponents, but Ole Miss isn’t one of those. The Rebels are one of the fastest teams in the SEC, and defensive struggles notwithstanding, Cal won’t be able to stop Ole Miss’ offense or perhaps even slow it down.
Ole Miss 47
California 35

LOUISIANA at TEXAS A&M
The former Southwestern Louisiana, then the former Louisiana-Lafayette, is simply now “Louisiana,” having finally, somehow, wrestled the right to call itself that from the political sphere of LSU bigwigs apparently nervous about having name-related competition. Unfortunately for the Ragin’ Cajuns, the name change did not bring with it stability on the defensive side of the ball. Louisiana has a 1-1 record at the moment – a 51-48 win over Southeastern Louisiana followed by a 66-42 loss to Tulsa. That’s the best news A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin has heard all year, because a week after throwing up on their shoes against UCLA, the Aggies could only manage a 24-14 win over Nicholls State. There is danger here for A&M; the Aggies clearly didn’t have their heads in the game against Nicholls State last Saturday, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have enough bullets in the gun to put pressure on Texas A&M’s offense to answer multiple scores. If Sumlin’s team loses this game, he won’t coach another in College Station.
Texas A&M 52
Louisiana 44

IDLE: Arkansas

Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN