By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 28, 2016
Last week’s record: 7-2 (77.8%)
Season record: 37-7 (84.1%)
A literal last-second loss by LSU to Auburn and a misfire in the prediction of a closely-fought game between Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky knocked the Predictions Dept. down a couple of notches in Week 4. This week, Tennessee-Georgia is by far the best game on the SEC slate, although the Missouri-LSU game ought to be interesting given the Bayou Bengals’ decision to fire Les Miles.
FLORIDA at VANDERBILT
The Gators appeared to forget that games have two halves, as Florida let Tennessee erupt for 35 points in a spectacular come-from-behind win. Florida gets a Vanderbilt team this week that should be commended for beating a decent Western Kentucky team in overtime. The Commodores have given Florida trouble off and on in the past, but unless Florida’s offense fails to show for this game it’s hard to imagine Vandy being a threat to pull the upset. Vanderbilt has struggled against good defenses and Florida certainly has one, the second half of the Tennessee loss notwithstanding. With Tennessee still to play Georgia and Alabama, Florida is still very much in the race for the SEC East title. A loss here would effectively turn that scenario dark.
Florida 28
Vanderbilt 17
KENTUCKY at ALABAMA
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TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
Georgia went to Oxford last week and completely soiled its armor, so it’s not easy to see a path to victory here for the Bulldogs. What Georgia has most going for it is Tennessee is now in the second week of a four-week gauntlet that will include a game next week at surprising Texas A&M and then the finale, a home date against hated Alabama. No other SEC team has a harder four-game stretch this year, and one of Tennessee’s shortcomings in past years of the Butch Jones era has been maintaining the mental toughness needed to finish games like this. Georgia suddenly looks like the weakest of the four opponents, as it is younger on defense than the other three and not as potent on offense as Texas A&M or Alabama. Kirby Smart needs to do something quickly to quell discontent among the Bulldog fan base after the Ole Miss debacle, but Georgia might simply not be good enough to do anything about it.
Tennessee 34
Georgia 24
MISSOURI at LOUISIANA STATE
Everything seems perfect in LSU’s world once more now that Les Miles has been forced to pack his bags, but the Tigers are vulnerable. Interim head coach Ed Orgeron’s first order of business was to can offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, so no one can be quite sure what the Bayou Bengal offense will look like this week or who will line up under center. This could be exactly what LSU needed, or it could be so much change in such a short timeframe that the LSU program simply collapses under its own weight. Meanwhile, Missouri is 2-2, and has won, by convincing margins, both games it should have won, and has lost, by meager margins, both games it should have lost. If Missouri can keep putting up points, it will pressure LSU greatly, as LSU has been unable to answer scores. Perhaps LSU’s sudden lack of predictability on offense will play in its favor.
LSU 28
Missouri 17
TEXAS A&M at SOUTH CAROLINA
This game shouldn’t be close, thanks to South Carolina’s offensive ineptitude, but Texas A&M has had the tendency to lay eggs in recent seasons as soon as the Aggies take on the mantle of the heavy favorite. Dealing with pressure has never been a Kevin Sumlin-coached team’s strong suit, at least not in the non-Johnny Manziel years. But if A&M is going to rise to the position of top challenger to Alabama in the SEC West, the Aggies must continue to put away mid-level challengers with some authority. South Carolina has, at least, a good scoring defense, so the Gamecocks ought to be able to at least throw a couple of roadblocks in A&M’s path. But truly, South Carolina is a woeful offensive team, and if the Gamecocks make a close one out of this matchup, it portends bad things down the road for the Aggies.
Texas A&M 31
South Carolina 7
ALCORN STATE at ARKANSAS (at Little Rock, Ark.)
Arkansas still plays a game or two a year at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, although this matchup barely qualifies as a “game.” More like a semi-controlled scrimmage or an excuse to cook out.
Arkansas 55
Alcorn State 10
LOUISIANA-MONROE at AUBURN
Seemingly gone are the days where the Warhawks could take down a rebuilding Alabama or Arkansas program. Despite Auburn not being in the best of shape these days, ULM is off to a 1-2 start that includes a loss to Georgia Southern. It’s not clear just how good Auburn is; despite its win over LSU last week, little can be gleaned from that performance given just how much of a disaster area the LSU program had become. Louisiana-Monroe is just the kind of program Gus Malzahn’s Auburn team has grown accustomed to smoking in recent seasons, leveraging its speed advantage to run up big numbers. This Auburn team isn’t quite as fast or deep – especially offensively – as previous incarnations, which ought to keep the Warhawks from being completely embarrassed.
Auburn 41
La.-Monroe 14
MEMPHIS at MISSISSIPPI
Ole Miss can’t sleep on this one; Memphis has allowed just 9 points over its first three games and is coming off a 77-3 trouncing of Bowling Green. Ole Miss has lost to Memphis before under Hugh Freeze, and if it happens again this season, suddenly Freeze’s seat might get a bit warm. Ole Miss played probably its most complete game of the year last week, utterly destroying a Georgia team that is on the plus side of average. Falling to an out-manned Memphis team would not be the way to follow that up.
Ole Miss 45
Memphis 28
IDLE: Mississippi State
Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN