SEC Previews and Predictions: Week 3

By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 14, 2016

Last week’s record: 11-1 (91.7%)
Season record: 21-4 (84.0%)

Only Arkansas’ latest double-overtime heroics kept the Predictions Dept. from a perfect record in Week 2. This week, intraleague play becomes more common, with Auburn-Texas A&M and LSU-Mississippi State leading the list of attractive non-Alabama games.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA
North Texas isn’t quite as terrible as it has been in recent years, but the Mean Green is still more accurately described as the Somewhat Unpleasant Green. Meaning, they’re a great guest for a Florida program that needs to keep rolling. The Gators absolutely dismantled Kentucky last week, all but ending the Wildcats’ hopes for a promising season. North Texas is coming off a win over Bethune-Cookman after posting a respectable performance in a Week 1 loss to SMU. That’s nice and all, but UNT shouldn’t be in this game by the middle of the second quarter.
Florida 38
North Texas 7

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI
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GEORGIA at MISSOURI
Kirby Smart’s honeymoon isn’t over in Georgia, but the front desk just called to ask when he’d be checking out. A near-loss to Nicholls State last week may have killed any optimism that the Bulldogs would suddenly be contenders. Now Georgia goes on the road for its SEC opener against a Missouri team that played surprisingly well in a win over Eastern Michigan. Missouri is still expected to struggle against the Georgia secondary, though, as the Tiger offense is wobbly. Georgia is still in need of a complete attitude overhaul; the Bulldogs have a tendency to get complacent when the opposition is overmatched on paper. Missouri needs to improve its running game to have any chance here.
Georgia 31
Missouri 14

NEW MEXICO STATE at KENTUCKY
Don’t look now, but New Mexico State actually won a game, beating rival New Mexico last week. Statistically, though, the Aggies might be the worst team in Division-IA. The defense is porous and the offense misfires with regularity. In other words, they’re a perfect opponent for Kentucky, which suddenly is playing like it was the worst team in the Southeastern Conference. Mark Stoops moved from sitting on the hot seat to wearing a pair of flaming pants after getting creamed by Florida in Week 2. If Kentucky somehow found it within themselves to lose to New Mexico State, the Wildcats might even ask Joker Phillips to come back.
Kentucky 38
New Mexico St. 21

EAST CAROLINA at SOUTH CAROLINA
The always-dangerous Pirates come into this game fresh off an upset of NC State, and boasting one of the best passing attacks in the country. South Carolina would have trouble scoring in a scrimmage against 11 cats wearing helmets. The outcome of this game wasn’t supposed to be in peril for South Carolina in the preseason, but whether in a narrow win over Vanderbilt or a decisive loss to Mississippi State, South Carolina looks like what it is: a team bereft of talent, led by a coach who hasn’t figured out how to motivate. In other words, bet the upset.
East Carolina 30
South Carolina 24

OHIO at TENNESSEE
The Volunteers would be wise to use caution here, as Ohio beat Kansas soundly last week behind one of the country’s best rushing attacks. Tennessee did the same thing against Virginia Tech in Week 2 as it did Appalachian State in Week 1: Take forever to get going, then win in spite of an offense that is knocking and pinging like an engine running on cheap gas. In the preseason, we’d make a cute comment here and pick the Vols to win by 50, and while that may still happen, until Tennessee gets its passing attack out of the starting blocks, every opponent is going to threaten disaster.
Tennessee 34
Ohio 21

VANDERBILT at GEORGIA TECH
Last year, Georgia Tech was considered a darkhorse to challenge for a College Football Playoff spot, but imploded completely under the pressure and missed the postseason altogether. This year, nobody was talking about the Yellow Jackets, yet they’re 2-0 after wins over Boston College in Ireland and Mercer. It’s not exactly Murderer’s Row, but it’s a start. Vanderbilt gets kudos for putting away MTSU last week in a manner befitting an SEC team, but the Commodores’ passing attack is nonexistent and this game will be in Georgia Tech’s back yard. Granted, the Yellow Jackets’ passing attack is also nonexistent, but that’s by design, given the triple-option. Vanderbilt doesn’t have that excuse.
Georgia Tech 27
Vanderbilt 17

TEXAS STATE at ARKANSAS
Texas State was off last week after beating Ohio in overtime in Week 1. Granted, the Bobcats have gotten acclimated to FBS ball more quickly than anyone expected, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario under which Arkansas doesn’t win this game. Perhaps if the Razorbacks can’t quickly put out of their heads the excitement of beating TCU in double overtime last week, an upset might happen, but the chances are just so low that it’s hard to fathom. Still, the Bobcats have the country’s fourth-best passing attack. Stranger things have happened.
Arkansas 37
Texas State 26

TEXAS A&M at AUBURN
The funny thing about this matchup is that Texas A&M is ranked, Auburn isn’t, yet Auburn is the betting favorite. This is especially odd given the way these two teams have looked. Auburn beat a bad Arkansas State team after struggling offensively against a Clemson team that might not be as good as once thought. Meanwhile, Texas A&M upset UCLA in the opener and then destroyed Prairie View A&M last week. What Auburn should be worried about here is an Aggie offense that suddenly looks very balanced, after years of being a passing-only proposition. The Aggies are also improving on the defensive side of the ball, which is Kryptonite for an Auburn team that is still getting almost no production through the air. If this game were being played in College Station, there would be no question who to pick. Only the home-field advantage provided by Jordan-Hare Stadium makes this one difficult to call.
Texas A&M 23
Auburn 17

MISSISSIPPI STATE at LOUISIANA STATE
After each team’s respective opener, this looked to have all the potential of a dirt souffle. But LSU rebounded to beat Jacksonville State, while MSU looked much sharper in a win over South Carolina. Now comes the hard part: Is Mississippi State’s improvement for real, and can the Bulldogs pull off the upset in Baton Rouge? LSU is still taking applications at the quarterback position, with Purdue transfer Danny Etling apparently in line to get a start after appearing simply competent against JSU – and that was a significant improvement over Brandon Harris. If both teams play the way they’ve played up to now, Mississippi State will win, perhaps by multiple scores. The real question is whether LSU is ready to wake up; if the Tigers do, MSU can’t hang with them.
LSU 27
Mississippi St. 17

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