Tennessee Volunteers
Overview: For a team returning 20 starters, either part-time or full-time, and with only special teams as a potential pitfall, it would seem the Volunteers would be a shoo-in to win the SEC East and possibly the overall conference title. But there remain questions about Butch Jones’ coaching ability and the ability of QB Joshua Dobbs to put a team on his shoulders. If Tennessee struggles this year, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Vols make a change at the top.
Projected record: 10-2 (UA, TAM); 6-2 and 1st SEC East
Returning offensive starters: 9 (QB, RB, SE, FL, TE, LG, C, RG, RT)
Returning defensive starters: 9 (RDE, RDT, LDT, LDE, WLB, MLB, RCB, LCB, S)
Returning specialists: 2 (PK, P)
Unit ratings
QB: Vg DL: Vg
RB: Ex LB: Ex
WR: Vg DB: Vg
OL: Vg ST: Av
Offensive breakdown: Jones believes in pressure, tempo and spreading the ball around. The offense fits the skill set of Joshua Dobbs to a bright orange “T”, but Tennessee misfired several times in 2015. Dobbs has already exceeded the expectations that came with him in recruiting, so there’s a question of whether his talent has already tapped out. Tennessee will need him to improve quite a bit in order to make a title run. Quinten Dormady, once recruited by Alabama, will be the backup. He got some work last year as a freshman, but not much.
The backs and receivers, as is often the case in Knoxville, are the strength of the offense. Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara form a thunder-and-lightning kind of duo somewhat reminiscent of Alabama’s Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. Kamara, a former Alabama player, could wind up being the key to this offense. He’s completely at-home in a spread look, and is also a potential force on special teams. Hurd’s game is all about power, but he has enough speed to run away from defenders. With Joe Young’s career ended by a neck injury, only John Kelly has any appreciable experience among the backups. There isn’t a lot of depth anyway, and Jayson Sparks and signee Carlin Fils-Aime are both slight of build. An injury to Hurd or Kamara would be devastating.
At receiver, there is plenty of raw talent, but not a lot of proven production. Josh Malone, Josh Smith, Preston Williams and Jauan Jennings are the top group, with Vincent Perry, Jeff George and a host of young players behind that. Tight end Ethan Wolf is steady and always seems to be involved in a key play, while his backup will likely be either converted wideout Jason Croom or Jakob Johnson. The one thing Tennessee lacks at the position is beef, as all members of the TE depth chart are receivers first and blockers second.
The offensive line has tons of experience, but there remain questions about their overall level of talent. This is because two years ago, Tennessee began a complete rebuild of its line and several members of the starting line have experience simply because they’ve been entrenched that long. A true freshman, Drew Richmond, will start at left tackle; the rest of the line are returning starters. Jashon Robinson and Dylan Wiesman hold down the guard slots, while Coleman Thomas figures to be the SEC’s best center.
Right tackle is still up in the air, with Brett Kendrick and Chance Hall battling for the spot. Kendrick has it for now, which makes Hall a good bet to back up multiple positions once he fully recovers from a knee injury. Jack Jones and Austin Sanders will be the other key reserves, as Tennessee has a lot of bodies here but only 8-9 players it can really count upon.
Defensive breakdown: Partly because the Vols’ hectic offense doesn’t spend much time on the field, the Tennessee defense suffered relative to its talent in 2015, ranking 45th against the run and 47th against the pass. Defensive efficiency, though, was high, as UT ranked 16th in scoring defense. A great deal of that success goes to DE Derek Barnett, who is knocking on the legendary Reggie White’s door for Tennessee’s all-time sack lead. Barnett recorded 10 sacks last year to go along with 12.5 tackles for loss and another 7 QB hurries. He was third on the team in tackles, an unheard-of number for a defensive end. Converted linebacker Cory Vereen will start opposite him; Vereen isn’t a big guy, but he is quick out of the blocks.
Depth outside could be a concern. LaTroy Lewis offers good experience, but unless JUCO transfer Jonathan Kongbo is as good as advertised, the Vols could have an issue, especially given that Vereen has been nicked up a lot over the years. There is no such concern at tackle, where Kendal Vickers and Danny O’Brien are rock-solid, and where Shy Tuttle and Kahlil McKenzie both figure to make an impact.
Tennessee is moving full-time to the 4-2-5 anti-spread defense, which means run defense might suffer a bit. It also puts pressure on Jalen Reeves-Maybin to be more of a field-patrol linebacker than a straight-up attacker. Reeves-Maybin and Darren Kirkland Jr. form a potent duo, but there’s a significant drop-off, especially in pass coverage, to Colton Jumper. Cortez McDowell, Kenny Bynum and Quart’e Sapp are the next wave. Malik Foreman now becomes a full-time starter at nickel safety. Cameron Sutton is by far the team’s best defensive back; he’ll start at corner next to Emmanuel Moseley. Justin Martin gives the Vols good pop off the bench at corner. Todd Kelly Jr., providing he can stay healthy, could end up being the best centerfield safety in the SEC. Rashaan Gaulden, Micah Abernathy and Stephen Griffin fill out the safety roster.
Special teams could end up being an issue if PK Aaron Medley hasn’t improved since last year. He missed almost a third of his kicks, including two from 29 yards or less, and hit nothing over 47 yards. He was 5-of-12 from outside 40. Punter Trevor Daniel, however, was a surprise at punter, averaging nearly 46 yards per kick. The return game should be in fine shape.
Overall trend: Up. Anything short of 10 regular-season wins would be a major disappointment in Knoxville. The schedule has a four-game gauntlet in the middle of Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and finally Alabama, which will test the Vols’ ability to manage adversity and expectations. If Tennessee gets through that four-game stretch unscathed, only a mass disaster could stop them from reaching Atlanta without a loss. If Tennessee were to lose 3 or more games in 2016, Jones’ job would most likely be in jeopardy.
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