Mississippi State Bulldogs
Overview: It’s not completely clear whether last year was a reflection of Dan Mullen’s improvement has a head coach, or whether Mississippi State won nine games simply because QB Dak Prescott was everything he was cracked up to be. Bulldog fans are hoping for the former, but Prescott’s early performances for the Dallas Cowboys suggest it might be the latter. Overall, this is a team that is slower than the SEC average, with below-average playmaking skills and now has a glaring vacancy under center. Getting bowl-eligible would seem to be about the best this team can hope for.
Projected record: 7-5 (UA, Ark, AU, LSU, OM); 3-5 and 7th SEC West
Returning offensive starters: 5 (SE, LT, C, RG, RB)
Returning defensive starters: 5 (DT, DT/E, MLB, FS, SS)
Returning specialists: 2 (PK, P)
Unit ratings
QB: Av DL: Vg
RB: Av LB: Av
WR: Fr DB: Av
OL: Av ST: Vg
Offensive breakdown: Without Dak Prescott, Mississippi State must settle on a new signal-caller. Damian Williams was Prescott’s backup in 2014, but Nick Fitzgerald took over the role last year. Williams is built like a fullback, with a strong (if not accurate) arm who sometimes seems to go into the twilight zone regarding decisions. Fitzgerald put up gaudy stats in 2015 (completion percentage of 78.6%) but is considered limited, while redshirt freshman Nick Tiano is the consummate man of mystery at the position. All three figure to end up playing.
At running back, Brandon Holloway is the one lone bright spot in regards to game-changing speed, but he weighs less than 170 pounds and needs someone to help share the load. Last year, that person was Prescott, who was the team’s leading rusher. Ashton Shumpert, who tallied the most yards on the ground outside of Prescott and Holloway, isn’t a gamechanger in the SEC. Aeris Williams and Dontavian Lee both had good per-carry averages in limited work and should see more work this year.
The question is whether it will make a difference, absence Prescott running things. In MSU’s spread offense, there is no fullback. Receiver could end up being a mess if Fred Ross is hobbled once the season starts. Ross is being held out of all camp scrimmage work while he recovers from groin surgery and if he can’t get back on the field in September, whoever the new quarterback is will probably wish he’s quarterbacking a different team. Malik Dear is an oddly-shaped slot option who also brings a spark to the running game. He, Gabe Myles and Donald Gray are considered to be the option top-group wideouts along with Ross.
The common thread for all the non-Ross participants is a lack of size. Reserve Jesse Jackson is the largest returning receiver on the team at 6’2”, 210. Signess Jamal Couch and Reginald Todd will most likely be forced into service whether they’re ready or not.
The Bulldogs also have a hole at tight end, with Justin Johnson, who is more of a large receiver than an actual tight end, being the only player with substantial experience. Farrod Green and signee Dontea Jones are battling for time, but the most intriguing name by far is 300-pound JUCO transfer Jordan Thomas, who will at least get to play on running downs.
Mississippi State’s offensive line varies between just better than average, to poor each year depending whether expectations are exceeded. This looks like another potentially lean year. Justin Senior is probably the best player on the line; he’ll switch from right tackle to left tackle. Jamaal Clayborn will return to handle center duties, while Devon Desper is back at right guard.
Left guard will be the property either of sophomore Deion Calhoun, or one of a handful of freshmen, most likely Michael Story. Martinas Rankin gets the right tackle assignment, but he did not contribute as quickly as hoped out of junior college. Elgton Jenkins and Darryl Williams, along with signee Greg Eiland, will push him. Without Prescott’s athleticism to cover up mistakes, this unit could feel the uncomfortable weight of scrutiny in 2016.
Defensive breakdown: One of the least talked-about developments in the SEC West heading into 2016 is the fact Mississippi State will move from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 over/under scheme, also known as the Nick Saban defense. Typically, 3-4 variants demand more talent to run, thanks to the multiple roles the defensive line must be able to play.
Mississippi State is heavily betting on A.J. Jefferson not to be a one-year flash in the pan, and to be able to handle moving inside despite being about 15 pounds too light for the assignment. Nelson Adams and Nick James will battle for the new position of nosetackle, while the other end position will fall to one of a few non-household names. Torrey Dale led Cory Thomas and Johnathan Calvin coming out of spring. Jeffery Simmons will play somewhere after his laughable one-game suspension for hitting a woman, an attack captured on videotape.
The other major change comes at linebacker, where Richie Brown moves inside to the new middle linebacker post. Redshirt freshman Leo Lewis will get the weakside assignment, while J.T. Gray and Will Coleman are set to handle the outside linebacker positions. Coleman is moving from defensive end, but given that the Bulldogs will be in nickel as often as not, Coleman will do most of his work outside Jefferson in a four-man front.
The defensive backfield was good but not great in 2015, and is replacing both cornerbacks. Tolando Cleveland will move into a steady corner position from his nickel/dime role, while the oft-injured Cedric Jiles gets the other spot. Safeties Kivon Coman and Brandon Bryant return to their spots, with Mark McLaurin and Jamal Peters providing depth.
After several seasons of struggling in the kicking game, Mullen finally found a pair of reliable kickers. Punter Logan Cooke and placekicker Westin Graves had strong 2015 campaigns and return for 2016. Cooke is a better bet to repeat his performance than is Graves, but neither is expected to tail off, either. The Bulldogs are decent in the return game, but kick coverage has been an issue in the past and needs to be addressed
Overall Trend: Down. Defensively, Mississippi State was shaky last season and changing schemes carries with it a built-in transitional period that usually takes SEC teams about a year to get beyond. Offensively, Mississippi State won’t be nearly as dynamic, nor will the downfield passing game be as potent thanks to Prescott’s absence. It will be interesting to watch how Mississippi State’s fans react if the Bulldogs fall back to the mid-bottom of the SEC pack again, after getting a taste of how the other half lives.
You must be logged in to post a comment.