SEC Previews and Predictions: Week 3

By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 15, 2015

Last week’s record: 8-2 (80.0%)
Season record: 19-4 (82.6%)

Aside from the Toledo-Arkansas shocker, the Predictions Dept. was largely happy with its Week 2 body of work. South Carolina showed that its defense was still a work in progress in a somewhat unexpected loss at home to Kentucky, but other than that, the rest of the conference slate went largely as planned. This week, Alabama vs. Ole Miss is by far the conference’s marquee game, but Auburn-LSU and South Carolina-Georgia could serve as preliminary elimination games for division races. Out of conference, Arkansas must rebound quickly as Texas Tech comes to town.

FLORIDA at KENTUCKY
All of a sudden, this game has some real SEC East division implications. Kentucky broke an SEC road losing streak that dated back to 2009 when it upset South Carolina, while Florida is 2-0 after wins over overmatched teams from other conferences. Kentucky’s opening win over Louisiana-Lafayette was nothing to write home about, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are a decent team and a lesser Wildcat team may have folded in that situation. This sets up a matchup between two SEC teams that don’t really know where they stand just yet. Florida has more talent, especially on defense, but Kentucky has the edge at quarterback and running back, which is starting to emerge as a position of great depth and strength for the Wildcats. Kentucky will be at home, but Commonwealth Stadium is not known for being particularly imposing in regards to home-field advantage. The real question here is whether Kentucky can find a workaround for Florida’s defense, which will be the first defense the Wildcats face that is capable of taking away significant chunks of the UK playbook. Past Kentucky teams have had the tendency to get disheartened and fold up in those situations. But does Florida have enough offensive weapons of its own?
Florida 27
Kentucky 24

MISSISSIPPI at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!

SOUTH CAROLINA at GEORGIA
The Gamecocks’ loss to Kentucky last week was brutal from the standpoint of contending in the SEC East this year, which was already a longshot at best. Now South Carolina has to travel to Georgia without quarterback Connor Mitch, who was injured against Kentucky and will miss a month or more of action. The Gamecocks will start a walk-on, Perry Orth, who actually outperformed Mitch once he got into the game against the Wildcats. Georgia, meanwhile, may be dealing with an injury to RB Nick Chubb, which has become so typical of Georgia running backs in recent years. The Bulldogs don’t have a proven quarterback at the moment, either, and South Carolina has proven able to pull an upset in this game even when Georgia had the better team, but the Gamecock defense is in such shambles that it’s hard to imagine Georgia being slowed down enough to get itself in trouble here. This may be a back-to-the-wall kind of game for South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier, whose career is already winding down. If the losses start piling up for the Gamecocks, this may be the beginning of the end.
Georgia 27
South Carolina 13

CONNECTICUT at MISSOURI
Two close wins over Villanova and Army indicate the Huskies aren’t anywhere near the kind of team they were a few years ago, when BCS bowl bids were a real possibility. Missouri is coming off the second less-than-impressive win of its own, as the Tigers beat Arkansas State on the road, 27-20. The difference here will be talent. UConn has struggled in recent years through multiple coaching changes to build its talent base. While Gary Pinkel hasn’t been lights-out as a recruiter at Missouri by any means, it’s not unreasonable to assume the Tigers have more talent than the Huskies. It’s certainly the case in regards to the two teams’ offenses, where the Huskies ranked in the bottom dozen or so of all major offensive statistical categories in 2014. The wide receiver corps is dismal, the quarterback situation unsettled and there are a lack of playmakers at running back. Missouri might find Connecticut’s overachieving defense to be a tougher out, but UConn can’t score enough to pull this upset.
Missouri 30
UConn 13

WESTERN CAROLINA at TENNESSEE
The Volunteers, coming off a tough overtime loss to Oklahoma, will run up the score against Western Carolina and attempt to feel better about itself going forward. In truth, Oklahoma exposed some fundamental problems on both sides of the ball for Tennessee, and Volunteer fans are questioning the coaching staff after giving up such a huge lead.
Tennessee 55
W. Carolina 7

AUSTIN PEAY at VANDERBILT
This may be the only game Vanderbilt wins this year. After the opening loss to Western Kentucky – in which the problem was not so much the loss itself, but the degree of ineptitude displayed by the Commodores – it’s hard to bet on Vandy beating either MTSU or Houston later in the year, to say nothing of any SEC opponents. Austin Peay is just what the Commodores need right now. APSU has been blitzed by both Mercer and Southern Miss, and even as bad as Vandy is, Austin Peay is much worse.
Vanderbilt 31
Austin Peay 7

TEXAS TECH at ARKANSAS
How Arkansas lost to Toledo last week, no one really knows. The real question in this game is whether the Razorbacks will be too demoralized to get up for this game. The Red Raiders can’t stop anyone from scoring – Texas Tech won its opener over Sam Houston State by a score of 59-45 – but as evidenced by the SHSU and UTEP games, Texas Tech has a potent offense. Arkansas will have to focus up to win this game, because Texas Tech is likely to pressure the Hog defense – and the scoreboard – for the entire 60 minutes. But if Arkansas mopes around and feels sorry for itself, it will be upset for a second week in a row. Here’s your potential upset alert game for the week.
Arkansas 30
Texas Tech 27

AUBURN at LOUISIANA STATE
Had Auburn lost to Jacksonville State last week, Gus Malzahn would have found himself on the #HotseatFast. Instead, Auburn’s playoff lives were spared for now. LSU beat Mississippi State in its opener last week, running up a big lead early in the game and then hanging on to win late. LSU struggled against Auburn last year after making a quarterback change right before this game. If LSU avoids making any questionable, major decisions like that this year, they should be in good shape. Auburn is such an unpredictable team week-to-week that it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the Tigers suddenly found their groove after muddling about the first two weeks. But for now, all signs point to an LSU win unless Auburn’s world suddenly rights itself.
LSU 25
Auburn 23

NORTHWESTERN STATE at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mississippi State looked like the dregs of college football early against LSU last week before rebounding in the second half and nearly winning the game. The Bulldogs should roll in this mismatch against FCS Northwestern State.
Mississippi St. 41
NW State 10

NEVADA at TEXAS A&M
The Wolf Pack peaked as a program under Chris Ault’s guidance, but are now returning to their former place in the college football pecking order. Nevada opened with an unimpressive win over FCS UC-Davis, but lost last week by big numbers to Arizona. Texas A&M’s offense is more potent than Arizona’s and its defense, while still in the process of being redesigned under John Chavis’ watchful eye, is also better now than what Nevada saw from the Wildcats last week. Although Texas A&M hasn’t encountered smooth sailing in conference games since joining the SEC, they have been able to take care of business in out-of-conference games they were expected to win.
Texas A&M 52
Nevada 21

Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN