SECCG preview: Missouri, like Auburn, is a dangerous breed of Tiger

By Jess Nicholas

TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief

Dec. 2, 2014

It’s hard to say how much of a contender Missouri is, given the sorry state of the SEC East. But it’s just as hard to say whether the SEC West’s two breeds of Tigers – the Auburn and LSU varieties – are more dangerous than the ones from the Show-Me State.

Because Missouri’s Tigers have done one thing that neither LSU nor Auburn showed capable of doing in 2014: They took care of business when they had to. Despite getting blown out by Georgia, Missouri managed to find a way to win six straight SEC games to close the season, four of those against bowl teams, three of them on the road. Missouri would be getting national title mentions right now if not for posting arguably the worst – or at least, the costliest – loss of any Power 5 school, a 31-27 jaw-dropper to Indiana.

Offensively, this team has fallen far short of recent years. But defensively, Missouri has been a tough out. The Tigers are efficient in the red zone, they are solid in special teams and they don’t turn the ball over very often. They might lack the explosiveness of years past, but they make up for it with a lunchpail attitude and solid direction from the sidelines.

With Alabama coming off an emotional win over Auburn, the Crimson Tide’s primary opponent here may just be itself. Nick Saban will have extra work on his hands this week to get Alabama to focus ahead rather than either behind, or too far forward. While Missouri is about middle of the pack in terms of opponent strength as far as the SEC teams Alabama has faced in 2014, the Tigers are very capable of beating Alabama given the right set of conditions.

OFFENSE

Missouri runs an up-tempo spread offense, but it’s not a full-blown hurry-up, no-huddle system like Auburn’s. Missouri is arguably the originator of the Big 12 spread offense roughly 10-15 years ago, and Gary Pinkel has been perfecting it ever since. But it’s an offense without a power inside rushing component, and the Tigers have struggled in 2014 behind a new quarterback and an inconsistent offensive line. Missouri ranks 95^th in total offense, 55^th in rushing offense, 98^th in passing offense and 67^th in scoring offense. The skill positions are respectable, but not game-changing in nature. Alabama will counter with its multiple, pro-style attack that ranks 16^th in total offense, 35^th in rushing offense, 21^st in passing offense and 19^th in scoring offense. Alabama should have clear advantages across the board.

QUARTERBACKS

With a little more time, Missouri’s Maty Mauk will be one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. Though small in stature, Mauk has a good arm and good escapability in the pocket. What he lacks right now is the ability to consistently analyze and target weaknesses in a defense. Mauk is 193-of-361 (53.5%) for 2,279 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s a big reason Missouri ranks 6^th in red zone offense, though, and Alabama won’t get an advantage by shortening the field against the Tigers. Mauk has also carried the ball 95 times for 336 yards (3.5 avg.) and 1 touchdown; the rushing totals include yardage lost to sacks. Backup Eddie Printz has attempted just 1 pass, which fell incomplete. The Tigers do have some experience down the bench, as Corbin Berkstresser was the starter against Alabama two years ago in Columbia. Alabama will counter with Blake Sims, who is just 12 yards off the 3,000-yard mark for the year and who is within striking distance of Alabama’s single-season passing record. Sims hasn’t run the ball as much as Mauk, but he’s been more effective when he has. Jake Coker is also a far superior backup to either Printz or Berkstresser. Mauk is capable of being a dangerous quarterback, but he’s too inconsistent to bet on it at this point. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS

Russell Hansbrough was injured at the very end of Missouri’s game last week, after the outcome had already been decided, as he suffered an ankle injury. He’ll probably play, but he won’t be 100 percent. It was a needless injury for Hansbrough, who has accumulated 949 yards on 177 carries (5.4 avg.) and scored 9 rushing touchdowns. His backup, Marcus Murphy (158 carries, 747 yards, 4.7 avg., 4 TD) will probably start this game as a result. Both players are small backs, going 5’9” and 190 pounds apiece, but Hansbrough often runs bigger than he is. If he’s lost for this game, it will be a horrible blow for Missouri. The real issue here is a lack of depth. Ish Witter is the only other running back with double-digit carries, and he’s toted the ball 24 times for 88 yards and 1 touchdown, an average of 3.7 yards per carry. Maty Mauk is the team’s third-leading rusher. The Tigers use no fullback. Alabama rested T.J. Yeldon against Western Carolina, and the benefits showed up big-time against Auburn. Between Yeldon and backup Derrick Henry, Alabama has seen its top two backs rush for 1,539 yards and 16 touchdowns. Depth behind them includes Tyren Jones and Altee Tenpenny, as well as fullback Jalston Fowler, who has gotten more carries as the season has gone along. Michael Nysewander is Fowler’s backup. This one isn’t very close to begin with, and with Hansbrough’s status unclear, it’s even more tilted Alabama’s way. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS

When Dorial Green-Beckham departed the program last year, most people thought a receiver corps led by former possession receiver Bud Sasser wouldn’t be very effective. Turns out, this is the best unit of the Tiger offense and one that compares favorably to Alabama’s group. Sasser has caught 65 passes for 904 yards (13.9 avg.) and 9 touchdowns and his senior leadership has been a key to Missouri’s success. Jimmie Hunt came on strong in the latter portion of the season to collect 34 passes for 529 yards (15.6 avg.) and 7 touchdowns. Darius White and tight end Sean Culkin make for good third and fourth options, and the Tigers will use their running backs as receivers often. What Missouri doesn’t have is a game-changer. Sasser and White are both around 6’2”, but aren’t terribly physical; Hunt may actually be the most physical of the group. Depth also stops abruptly behind the three receiver starters and Culkin. Wesley Leftwich, who has just 3 catches all year, is the leader of the second unit. Alabama will counter with Amari Cooper as the bellcow receiver. A 2,000-yard receiving season is in reach with three solid games to close out the year. DeAndrew White continues to be an important second option, while Christion Jones has turned his season around. ArDarius Stewart may still be out for this game, but Chris Black, Cameron Sims and Raheem Falkins will each have roles, along with Robert Foster. O.J. Howard is effective as a receiving tight end, while Alabama figures to get Brian Vogler back at the position this week. Brandon Greene, Dakota Ball and Malcolm Faciane provide depth. Alabama could have its hands full with the Tiger starters, but Cooper is well beyond Missouri’s ability level and Alabama also takes the depth comparison. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE

Both teams have some injury concerns, but Missouri also has some fundamental issues that will exist whether or not Taylor Chappell is ready to play at right tackle. Even Boehm is a fine center, and left tackle Mitch Morse is a quality player. Connor McGovern will start at right guard, while Brad McNulty gets the call at left guard. Chappell’s injury aside, this is where most of the problems for Missouri are found – the guard positions. The Tigers have done reasonably well at preventing sacks (36^th), but that’s as much due to Mauk’s wheels as the line. If Chappell can’t play, Mitch Hall will probably end up starting. Alabama is waiting on word as to whether LT Cam Robinson can continue to shake off injuries and play. Against Auburn, Robinson hurt his left shoulder, a new injury for him. If he’s good to go, Austin Shepherd will start at right tackle, with center Ryan Kelly flanked by guards Arie Kouandjio and Leon Brown. If Robinson can’t go, Shepherd will likely slide to left tackle, with either Grant Hill or Dominick Jackson getting the call at right tackle. Missouri isn’t bad, but it is a unit filled with overachievers. Alabama simply has more talent and depth. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

The Tigers base from a 4-3 front that is smaller, but quicker than most other SEC defenses. Likely driven by necessity – Missouri can’t recruit the kind of athletes that Alabama, Florida or Georgia can attract on a consistent basis – Missouri has made the plan work. The Tigers rank 16^th in total defense, 26^th in rushing defense, 35^th in raw pass defense, 25^th in pass efficiency defense and 13^th in scoring defense. The strength of the unit is off the edges, where the Tigers typically hold a speed advantage over any opponent they face. Alabama will counter with its 3-4 over/under scheme, which took a statistical beating last week against Auburn. Alabama ranks 11^th in total defense, 2^nd in rushing defense, 54^th in raw pass defense, 29^th in pass efficiency defense and 6^th in scoring defense. The pass defense numbers took especially large damage. Still, Alabama’s defense is considered much better overall than Missouri’s.

DEFENSIVE LINE

The Tigers hold a big edge off the corner, where Shane Ray and Markus Golden have combined for 22 sacks. The pair averages only around 250 pounds, but opponents haven’t found a way to stop them yet. The Tigers rank 6^th in the nation in sacks and 8^th in tackles for loss, a rare combination of effectiveness versus both quarterbacks and running backs. Harold Brantley, Matt Hoch and Lucas Vincent will rotate at tackle. All three have good experience and are capable players. They’ve combined for 20.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks, which are high numbers for interior tackles. Josh Augusta provides depth in the middle, while Marcus Loud and Charles Harris will bolster the ends. Alabama will counter with A’Shawn Robinson in the middle, flanked by Jarran Reed, D.J. Pettway, Jonathan Allen and Dalvin Tomlinson at the ends. Brandon Ivory, Darren Lake and Josh Frazier will provide depth at nosetackle when it’s needed. Comparing these two units can be tough, because the two teams go about attacking an offensive line in completely different ways. Missouri has the advantage in speed and quickness, but Alabama can match that by moving the Jack linebackers down to end, which the Tide often does. Alabama, though, is the only one of these teams that can go big when necessary to stop an interior running game. In baseball terminology, Alabama plays every facet of the game, while the Tigers lean on the long ball at the expense of everything else – but they do it very well. This one is really, really close. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS

Kentrell Brothers, the weakside starter, is the team’s leading tackler and is a solid, all-SEC type player. But he isn’t particularly active behind the line of scrimmage, and he doesn’t get the help from his supporting cast that he really needs. Middle linebacker Michael Scherer is adequate; strongside backer Donavin Newsome is extremely hit-or-miss and will be off the field for much of this game when the Tigers go nickel. Clarence Green is the top backup, but he hasn’t been a factor much this year. Eric Beisel and Darvin Ruise add depth, but again, the lack of playmakers here is troubling for the Tigers. Alabama will counter with Trey DePriest and Reggie Ragland in the middle and some combination of Xzavier Dickson, Denzel Devall, Ryan Anderson, Dillon Lee, Tim Williams and Rashaan Evans on the outside. Devall missed the Auburn game but should be back for this one. Williams and Evans are top-level pass rushers whose quickness will bother Missouri’s offensive tackles. Alabama has a solid edge in depth here, especially off the edge, and Ragland and DePriest are much better in the middle than Missouri’s players. The only potential pitfall for Alabama is the possibility of an injury inside; Reuben Foster was held out of the Auburn game with an undisclosed injury, while Shaun Dion Hamilton is probably not ready to step in. Otherwise, this is a solid Alabama edge. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Both teams have some questions regarding lineups. Alabama will start Nick Perry and Landon Collins at the safeties and Cyrus Jones at the primary cornerback position, but it remains to be seen whether Bradley Sylve got a permanent promotion after receiving the battlefield variety against Auburn. Otherwise, Eddie Jackson will start there again, or true freshman Tony Brown could also be an option. Geno Smith, Jarrick Williams, Jabriel Washington and Maurice Smith will add depth at safety. Missouri will start Ian Simon at free safety and Braylon Webb at strong safety, but the corner positions are less settled. Aarion Penton figures to get the call on one side, but the other could be filled by either Kenya Dennis, John Gibson or David Johnson. Duron Singleton and Courtland Browning will provide depth up the middle. Missouri can compete with Alabama from a depth standpoint, but the Tigers lack a bellcow like Landon Collins – or even, at this point, a Cyrus Jones or Nick Perry. The Tiger unit is quality – Webb has 4 interceptions and Penton 3 on the year – but Alabama just has a little something extra. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS

Alabama’s group looked like a M*A*S*H* unit at times against Auburn. Adam Griffith, who was already hurt, appeared to injure himself further in warm-ups and was replaced by Gunnar Raborn, but Raborn mis-hit an extra point attempt that was subsequently blocked, and Griffith was put back into action. Punter J.K. Scott did his usual superlative job and also handled kickoffs with aplomb, but even he had to visit the locker room once. Alabama’s return game has been solid, but not spectacular lately. Missouri’s Andrew Baggett is having almost the same season Adam Griffith is for the Tide. Baggett has hit two-thirds of his kicks, missed a couple of extra points and has missed kicks from all distance ranges. The Tigers are a mid-pack 48^th in net punting, but are strong on returns, ranking 21^st in punt returns and 7^th on kickoff returns. Mizzou struggles on kickoff return coverage, though, although Alabama hopes it won’t have many opportunities to press its advantage there. On paper, this looks like another Alabama edge, but until Griffith’s health can be accurately gauged, the Tigers get this one. Advantage: Missouri

OVERALL

Alabama leads in seven categories, Missouri in one, but defensive line might as well be a toss-up and the Tigers also could lay legitimate claim to the wide receiver group. In trench matchups, Alabama’s defensive line strongly controls the matchup against Missouri’s offensive line, but Missouri’s DL is no worse than a push matchup against Alabama’s OL and the Tigers might actually hold a slim lead there.

The biggest challenge for Alabama will be trying to get its players to forget about the Auburn game. As silly as it might sound, given the SEC Championship and a ticket to the final four is in play in this game, the statewide, post-Auburn exhalation among Alabama fans makes it a factor to consider for the team itself. Other than that, Alabama will also have to deal with the fact that Missouri has been one of the best-coached teams in the SEC, if not all of college football, for a couple of years now.

But the fact remains that the Tigers lost to Indiana, got blanked by Georgia, and have generally had problems putting up big numbers on offense. Alabama should win this game by multiple scores, and if the Crimson Tide had another week to prepare, this game could be called a blowout.

As it is, the safer bet is that Alabama starts slow, Missouri keeps the game close and the Tide pulls away to a safe margin sometime in the fourth quarter. A Missouri win here would be one of the all-time worst upset losses in Alabama history, given the stakes – and how good the Crimson Tide really is.

Alabama 31

Missouri 16

Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN