SEC Previews and Predictions: Week 12

By Jess Nicholas, TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief

Nov. 13, 2013

Last week’s record: 6-1 (85.7%)

Season record: 76-14 (84.4%)

The Florida-Vanderbilt game was bad for the Predictions Dept., but it was even worse for Florida head coach Will Muschamp. Muschamp has taken up an unexpected residency on the SEC’s hot seat, and is perhaps the only coach there at the moment – although Mark Richt and Dan Mullen are threatening to make him scoot over a bit. This week’s slate of games is headlined by the Auburn-Georgia battle, which will all but eliminate one of the two teams from its respective divisional race.

FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA

Ordinarily, this would be one of several “games of the century” in the SEC this year. As it stands now, this is simply a case of one team – and surprisingly, not Florida – trying to stave off an unlikely upset to remain in the SEC East race. If South Carolina loses this game, it would have to hope Missouri dropped games against both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, which appears unlikely at this point. Meanwhile, Florida has to win this game to qualify for a bowl bid, because the Gators have virtually no chance against Florida State to close the season. Will Muschamp’s job is in real jeopardy at this point, and if his team misses the postseason, he’s no better than a 50/50 shot to retain his position. Florida’s lone saving grace is that its defense can still pitch near-shutouts despite the number of injuries the team has suffered, and South Carolina’s offense can be erratic at times. With the game in Columbia, though, it would be a massive upset if Florida won.

South Carolina 24

Florida 14

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE

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GEORGIA at AUBURN

Much like the Alabama-LSU series, home field doesn’t mean much here. What does mean something, though, is the rushing defense statistic. Georgia is 20^th against the run, but hasn’t been dominant in stopping it, and Auburn’s running game has reached elite level. On the other hand, betting on Auburn’s passing game is a fool’s wager. Georgia is a beaten up football team at the moment, and is all but out of the SEC East race – a combination that, in the past, tends to render Mark Richt-coached teams somewhat ineffective in big games. If Auburn loses here, the Tigers are all but done in the SEC West race; they’d have to hope for Mississippi State to upset Alabama to have any shot. This game will come down to whether the Georgia offense can score with regularity on Auburn’s defense, because the Tigers are absolutely going to put up points. And if Richt were to lose here, the calls for his replacement will become louder.

Auburn 34

Georgia 31

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT

The Commodores have shaken off a rough start and appear to be focused up for the stretch run. Betting on offensive consistency from Vanderbilt is always iffy, but Kentucky’s defense can make even the most pedestrian offenses look like Peyton Manning was under center. A win here puts Vanderbilt into a bowl game, whereas a win for Kentucky would likely be considered Mark Stoops’ first-year “signature win.” Ponder that one for a minute.

Vanderbilt 31

Kentucky 20

TROY at MISSISSIPPI

This has been a tough year for the Troy program, which typically rolls through its conference games and sticks it to at least one “big-time” program. But aside from a blowout over woeful, lower-division Savannah State, Troy’s other four wins have come by margins of 3, 1, 7 and 6 points over such luminaries as Georgia State and South Alabama. Meanwhile, Mississippi State dismantled the Trojans by a 62-7 score. Ole Miss has already secured bowl eligibility, but one never knows which Rebel team will show up. Will it be the team that upset LSU, or the one that failed to scratch against Alabama? Either way, this is not the typical Troy team, and it would be a shock if Ole Miss stumbled here.

Ole Miss 41

Troy 17

IDLE: Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M