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DEFENSE
Notre Dame bases from a 4-2-5 look, but it can morph quickly into a more standard 4-3 alignment, sort of a dying breed among college teams. The Fighting Irish do well with it, ranking 20th in total defense, 15th in rushing defense and 14th in scoring defense.
Pass efficiency is a sound 19th, but raw pass defense ranks 56th. That’s a similar situation to what Alabama has, as the Crimson Tide ranks 31st in total defense, 12th in rushing defense and 17th in scoring defense, with pass efficiency defense 26th and raw pass defense at 78th. It would seem Alabama has faced much tougher offenses, so Tide fans should feel good about the closeness of these numbers.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Notre Dame has been effective up front, ranking 33th in sacks and 13th in tackles for loss. Defensive ends Daelin Hayes and Adetokunbo Ogundeji are a big part of that success, combining for 12.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks. Inside, Kurt Hinish and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa are effective space-eaters, and both are capable of pressuing the quarterback in their own right. Reserve ends Justin Ademilola, Isaiah Foskey and Ovie Oghoufo are just about as good as the starters, especially Foskey; Ademilola is doubtful for this game with a knee injury.
Depth at tackle is OK in regards to numbers, but Howard Cross III, Jacob Lacey and Rylie Mills are decidedly a step down from the front unit. Mills probably has the most potential of that group. This is one of the few teams Alabama has faced in 2020 that can almost match it spot for spot in regards to depth. Alabama will use Phidarian Mathis, Tim Smith and D.J. Dale inside, with Justin Eboigbe, Jamil Burroughs and Byron Young outside. Christian Barmore will flex between the two. LaBryan Ray is probably going to be out again for this game, which could bring Stephon Wynn Jr. into the conversation. In a comparison of starters only, this is a very close call, but Alabama’s depth players inside are better than Notre Dame’s, which is where this category turns. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Faced with a dynamic Florida offense, Alabama’s inside linebackers reverted a bit to their season default settings. Outside linebackers Will Anderson and Christopher Allen have developed into destructive forces off the edge, but Dylan Moses had another rough game inside against Florida and needs to refocus. Christian Harris continues to flash at weakside linebacker, though, and his play to end the Florida game was memorable. Ben Davis and Drew Sanders will back up the outside spots while Josh McMillon and Jaylen Moody will backup the inside posts.
Notre Dame will start Drew White in the middle, but he’s on the marginal side for MLB size (6’1”, 225). The team’s leading tackler is the rover, a hybrid linebacker/safety spot manned by Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah, who himself is on the slight side (6’1”, 215) for a linebacker. He’s been productive, though, accumulating 56 tackles, 11 of them for loss, with 1.5 sacks and a host of other secondary stats. When Notre Dame wants a 4-3 alignment, it will bring either Shayne Simon, Jack Kiser or Marist Liufau into the game at strongside linebacker. Bo Bauer backs up the inside spots.
This is the matchup to watch for Alabama – the smaller Notre Dame linebackers against Najee Harris and Alabama’s other running backs. Alabama trails Notre Dame a bit in production here, but Alabama has the better athletes and also better depth. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Nick McCloud has been a good-but-not-great primary cornerback for Notre Dame, but the other spot has been in flux a bit, shared by Clarence Lewis and TaRiq Bracy. Bracy’s inconsistency cost him a starting job mid-season, and injuries have not been kind, either. He missed the Clemson rematch. When he’s on, he’s the best DB Notre Dame has, and his production-per-snap ratio is the best among the Irish secondary.
For this game, Notre Dame may also be without safety Kyle Hamilton, who is fighting an ankle injury. If he’s out, D.J. Brown will get his first start of the season next to Shaun Crawford. Brown has low production and is mostly a special teams player. Houston Griffith will be either the nickel or dime back, and rover Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah will also flex back to the third level at times. Hamilton’s loss would be felt; he’s tied with Owusu-Karamoah for the team lead in tackles.
Alabama will start Patrick Surtain II and Josh Jobe at corner, with Daniel Wright and Jordan Battle at the safety positions. Malachi Moore and Brian Branch will handle Star and dime. Alabama had a rough go of things against Florida, but with the lack of outside pressure from Notre Dame’s receivers, and the injury concerns on the Irish side, Alabama inches out a win here. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama’s special teams were a big part of the victory over Florida, and this unit has developed into something solid. Will Reichard continues to hit his shots at placekicker. DeVonta Smith has become a dangerous punt returner. The kick return unit needs work, but the coverage teams are excellent. At punter, Charlie Scott hit a terrific final punt against Florida to pin the Gators deep. Notre Dame will use Jonathan Doerer at placekicker; he’s adequate, but has accuracy issues at long distance. The Irish cover kicks and punts very well and rank 21st in net punting, with Jay Bramblett averaging 42.3 yards per punt. Returns are on the good side of average, but nothing special.
Basically, Notre Dame hits all its marks, but doesn’t “wow” anyone. Alabama has more explosiveness, but also has the potential for more negative plays. Notre Dame’s coverage abilities may wind up being the difference here. Advantage: Notre Dame
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Notre Dame in two, and neither of Notre Dame’s leads are very large. On top of that, Alabama leads both OL-DL cross-matchups, has a sizable advantage at receiver, and is just a step or two stronger everywhere else.
This doesn’t read like the typical Bama blowout, but absent a hero day from Ian Book, it also doesn’t look like a game Notre Dame can win. Notre Dame’s only hope is that Alabama struggles so mightily to replace Landon Dickerson at center, that it can’t get the running game going. Notre Dame’s linebackers are very average and the Irish must bring help to compensate; if Alabama can’t keep the Notre Dame defense honest, it could turn into a long afternoon.
The book on Notre Dame is, well … Book. Alabama has to come up with a better containment strategy than it had for Kyle Trask for most of the SEC Championship Game, as Trask was able to make several plays with his legs that he shouldn’t have. Notre Dame’s receivers are superstars, but they are quality Power 5 athletes, so Book isn’t going to struggle to find someone to throw to.
Chris Owens, therefore, may hold the key to this game. If Alabama’s OL continues to click absent Dickerson, the Crimson Tide will win comfortably and advance.
Alabama 47
Notre Dame 21
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