Nov. 6, 2013
Last week’s record: 6-0 (100.0%)
Season record: 70-13 (84.3%)
Week 10 was good to us, as the Predictions Dept. continues to rebound from an awful performance on SEC Upset Saturday two weeks ago. This week’s schedule is obviously highlighted by Alabama-LSU, but the larger problem for fans of SEC football is the next-best matchup is Auburn-Tennessee, and only because of the names involved. On the field, it’s likely to be a blowout win for the Tigers. Florida-Vanderbilt is the only other game with bowl implications.
VANDERBILT at FLORIDA
Here’s the shocking statement of the week: If Florida loses this game, the Gators will likely miss the postseason. Florida is 4-4 with games still left against South Carolina and Florida State. Enter the Commodores, who have reached consistent not-elite-but-pretty-good status over the last couple of years. The Commodores are certainly capable of knocking off Florida, which played well in a loss last week to Georgia, but Vanderbilt too often has found a way not to take a step up when the opportunity presented itself. Like Florida, Vandy is 4-4, but the ‘Dores’ finishing schedule isn’t nearly as tough. Were this game in Nashville, we might take the upset, but look for Florida to hold on at home and make a run for 6-6.
Florida 24
Vanderbilt 17
LOUISIANA STATE at ALABAMA
APPALACHIAN STATE at GEORGIA
Appalachian State picked the wrong time to be looking at a move to Division-IA. The Mountaineers are 2-7 and have lost games this year to such luminaries as The Citadel and North Carolina A&T. Georgia will crush Appalachian State, as the Mountaineers’ iconic upset of Michigan a few seasons ago has little chance of being repeated.
Georgia 56
Appalachian St. 10
MISSOURI at KENTUCKY
Missouri bounced back nicely after its loss to South Carolina by dominating Tennessee last week. Now the Tigers travel to face a Kentucky team that simply isn’t very good. A lot of observers are waiting on what they think will be the inevitable screw-up by hard-luck Missouri – and that could come in two weeks against Ole Miss, but it likely won’t happen here. Kentucky’s defense has been disappointing, and Missouri’s offense, particularly in regards to its receivers and backs, are capable of putting more pressure on Kentucky than Kentucky is capable of reciprocating. Kentucky’s secondary has been prone to give up big plays all year – the Wildcats are ranked 100th in pass efficiency defense – and Missouri can certainly put a few of those up on the board.
Missouri 41
Kentucky 21
AUBURN at TENNESSEE
The meeting of Alabama’s two primary rivals looks like it will be a runaway for Auburn. Tennessee can’t stop the run, and Auburn is extremely good in running the football. Tennessee put up just 3 points last week on a so-so Missouri defense that was banged up besides, and Auburn’s defense makes Missouri’s look like someone’s second team. Unless Tennessee has been hiding some secret offensive weapons in the gym, or plan to sneak Peyton Manning into Justin Worley’s uniform, Auburn will roll.
Auburn 42
Tennessee 17
ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI
Arkansas is free-falling toward 3-9 at this point, and it’s unlikely that Ole Miss is feeling generous enough to break that fall. Arkansas was a bit more competitive against Auburn than expected, but still lost by 18 points and Ole Miss is essentially the same team as the Tigers. One more loss knocks Arkansas out of a bowl game, and LSU still looms on the schedule. If the Rebels get an early lead in this game, Arkansas’ players might take the opportunity to check out early. And given the way Bret Bielema has looked overmatched in his first season at Arkansas, no one would blame them.
Ole Miss 30
Arkansas 20
MISSISSIPPI STATE at TEXAS A&M
Texas A&M’s season hasn’t gone quite as expected, thanks to several nagging injuries to Johnny Manziel and one of the worst defenses ever fielded by an alleged conference contender. Mississippi State, like most every other SEC school, is capable of hurting the Aggies on the ground, which has been the prime limiter for Manziel-infused theatrics this year. Texas A&M hasn’t been able to get its defense off the field against just about anyone, and it took a game against woeful UTEP for the Aggies to finally hold someone to single digits. As for State, they’ll have to upset someone to get bowl-eligible, as 5-7 is the expected finish. Because MSU is capable of running the ball, this might actually be the best chance for an upset, and the game will probably be closer than Aggie fans are expecting.
Texas A&M 41
Mississippi St. 34
IDLE: South Carolina