Tide is nearly full, but needs remain
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Jan. 5, 2015
Looking ahead to the 2015 season, Alabama’s expected losses from the 2014 roster range from the moderate to the severe, depending on which players choose to head early to the NFL Draft.
Offensively, assuming RB T.J. Yeldon heads to the NFL as expected, Alabama will be replacing 9 starters, although the net effect will be a 10-starter loss, since Christion Jones was Alabama’s third starter at wide receiver when the Tide opened in a spread look. Alabama returns two veteran offensive linemen but must retool the rest of the lineup.
Defensively, Alabama should be fine, although decisions from DE Jarran Reed and WLB Reggie Ragland could impact the landscape significantly. While safety Landon Collins has not formally announced his intentions to leave early for the NFL Draft, virtually everyone close to the program expects it to happen.
Alabama already has between 24 and 26 commitments, depending on the status of WR Daylon Charlot and DL T.D. Moton. Charlot’s status changes daily, while Moton is not expected to sign with Alabama in February. A couple of Alabama’s other commitments might fall off the list as well as recruiting winds down. Regardless, Alabama is expected to sign no worse than a top-five recruiting class and might have the No. 1 class in the nation yet again.
Looking beyond 2015, Alabama’s primary objective will be to secure the signatures of the linemen it has committed. Even if Jarran Reed comes back for his senior season, Alabama will finish the 2015 season likely having to replace four of its top six defensive linemen, along with at least one starter at linebacker, its top cornerback and potentially two starters at safety. This assumes DL A’Shawn Robinson leaves early for the 2016 draft. On offense, Alabama would lose only C Ryan Kelly to graduation, but could also lose its quarterback again if Jake Coker wins the job in the spring, and could potentially lose both its top two running backs, Kenyan Drake to graduation and Derrick Henry early to the NFL. Still, those are manageable losses for the program at this point.
Here’s a look at the current recruiting class and some discussion on the way we think it will end.
Quarterback
Out: Blake Sims
In: Jake Coker, Alec Morris, Cooper Bateman, David Cornwell
Leaving after 2015: Jake Coker
Committed for 2015: Blake Barnett
Others being recruited: None
Analysis: Jake Coker did a nice job as Blake Sims’ backup in 2014 and has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the job for 2015, although the issue isn’t settled. Coker has the best collection of raw skills of anyone in the group, although he must continue to read defenses more quickly and not let the game get too fast for him. Any of the other four names could end up being his chief competition for the job. Alec Morris probably has the biggest pure arm of the other names and reminds people of Freddie Kitchens in terms of downfield passing ability, size – and unfortunately, lack of mobility. Both Bateman and Cornwell are good athletes who can make plays with their legs. But it’s Blake Barnett who has fan tongues atwitter with his true dual-threat capabilities. Barnett will go through spring practice with the team, but it’s highly unlikely for any true freshman to play quarterback for Nick Saban, especially given the amount of talent in front of him. Alabama is not recruiting any other quarterbacks.
Prediction: Barnett
Running back
Out: T.J. Yeldon (assumed), Jalston Fowler (FB), Michael Nysewander (assumed)
In: Kenyan Drake, Derrick Henry, Altee Tenpenny, Tyren Jones, Corey McCarron (FB), Ronnie Clark
Leaving after 2015: Kenyan Drake, Corey McCarron (FB)
Committed for 2015: DeSherrius Flowers, Bo Scarbrough
Others being recruited: Damien Harris, Johnny Frasier, Chris Warren
Analysis: This is a hard position to figure because of what’s going on at fullback. Alabama is losing Jalston Fowler to graduation, and his backup, Michael Nysewander, has a year of eligibility remaining but chose to go through Senior Day at the Auburn game. Rare is it that a player goes through Senior Day activities and returns. If Nysewander does leave, Alabama will face the choice of either using walk-on H-back Corey McCarron there, moving a hybrid player like RB/S Ronnie Clark or LB Walker Jones to the spot, putting the job in the hands of a true freshman, finding a walk-on at another position (Kieran Williams, Gussie Busch) or abandoning the position altogether and using two tight ends (which we’ll address later). If Alabama chooses to go the freshman route, Bo Scarbrough would seem a natural fit, although many believe he’s a faster version of Derrick Henry and should stay at tailback. DeSherrius Flowers is a combo back who could play the position, but he’d seem to need bulk before moving there. Alabama is trying to add a home run threat at the position, which explains the interest in Damien Harris and Johnny Frasier, and signing either or both of those players would seem to signal Scarbrough starting out his career at fullback. Alabama also needs to know whether Altee Tenpenny will stay with the program after two years of disappointing results and numerous trips to the doghouse.
Prediction: Flowers, Scarbrough, Harris
Wide receiver
Out: Amari Cooper, DeAndrew White, Christion Jones
In: ArDarius Stewart, Robert Foster, Raheem Falkins, Chris Black, Derek Kief, Parker Barrineau, Cameron Sims
Leaving after 2015: Parker Barrineau
Committed for 2015: Calvin Ridley, Daylon Charlot
Others being recruited: Lawrence Cager, Ryan Newsome, Equanimeous St. Brown
Analysis: Alabama would be happy to close up shop with Ridley and Charlot and call it a day, but recruiting drama won’t let that happen. Charlot is no longer even considered an Alabama commitment by many, although his waffling between Alabama and LSU may be overstated. Ridley has academic hurdles to clear and while he initially looked like an early enrollee, those plans look a bit up in the air. Alabama could have taken a commitment recently from Miami commitment Lawrence Cager, and might still depending on what happens with Ridley and especially Charlot. The fact that Alabama is not expected to lose any scholarshipped receivers after the 2015 season means the Crimson Tide can afford to skip over this position somewhat, but losing Ridley from this class would be a huge blow.
Prediction: Ridley, Charlot
Tight end
Out: Brian Vogler
In: O.J. Howard, Malcolm Faciane, Dakota Ball, Brandon Greene, Ty Flournoy-Smith, Kurt Freitag
Leaving after 2015: Malcolm Faciane, Ty Flournoy-Smith
Committed for 2015: Hale Hentges
Others being recruited: Tyrone Wheatley Jr.
Analysis: This position is in critical shape at the moment. O.J. Howard is Alabama’s only returning player, but his blocking has been suspect and his route running still needs work. The rest of the group has issues as well. Brandon Greene is an offensive lineman playing tight end, and is barely a receiving threat due to his lack of speed. Dakota Ball is in the same boat, a converted defensive lineman. Malcolm Faciane could be the answer if he can have a consistent spring and offseason, but he’s a fifth-year senior with major knee surgery in his past and time is running out. The same is true for Georgia transfer Ty Flournoy-Smith, who appears fluid in pass routes but lacks the raw size to be ideally suited for the Y-end position. Kurt Freitag’s status is unclear given a pending legal issue. Alabama has a commitment from top tight end prospect Hale Hentges, and it seems all but certain that Hentges will play as a true freshman. Alabama is also recruiting Tyrone Wheatley Jr., an impressive prospect at both tight end and H-back, who may get shut out due to a numbers crunch. Spring will be crucial for all these players, but especially Howard, Faciane and Flournoy-Smith.
Prediction: Hentges
Offensive line
Out: Arie Kouandjio, Austin Shepherd, Leon Brown
In: Cam Robinson, Ryan Kelly, Grant Hill, Alphonse Taylor, Bradley Bozeman, Dominick Jackson, Ross Pierschbacher, Isaac Luatua, Josh Casher, J.C. Hassenauer, Brandon Greene (TE)
Leaving after 2015: Ryan Kelly, Dominick Jackson, Isaac Luatua
Committed for 2015: Lester Cotton, Richie Petitbon, Dallas Warmack, Matt Womack, Brandon Kennedy
Others being recruited: Drew Richmond, Isaiah Prince, Chidi Okeke-Valentine, Martez Ivey
Analysis: Just from the fact that Alabama has five players committed and could sign as many as three others ought to say something about the state of depth on the current team. The big problem for the 2015 squad is the lack of experience at tackle. Only Cam Robinson, Grant Hill and Dominick Jackson are true options there, although Ross Pierschbacher could possibly play tackle and tight end Brandon Greene began his Alabama career at left tackle and could go back there. Alabama is set at center even after Ryan Kelly graduates, but the Tide is thin on the outside and will lose Jackson after 2015. In addition to the five players Alabama has committed, the Crimson Tide is heavily pursing Drew Richmond, and Chidi Okeke-Valentine might be an option, but academics will be an issue there. Isaiah Prince and Martez Ivey seemed to have slipped a bit from Alabama’s radar lately. Richmond would seem to be the most likely possibility but the Tide will have to pry him from Ole Miss first.
Prediction: Cotton, Petitbon, Warmack, Womack, Kennedy
Defensive line
Out: Brandon Ivory, Anthony Orr
In: Jonathan Allen, Dalvin Tomlinson, D.J. Pettway, Jarran Reed, Darren Lake, Josh Frazier, A’Shawn Robinson, Da’Shawn Hand, Dee Liner, Korren Kirven, Dakota Ball (TE), Johnny Dwight, O.J. Smith
Leaving after 2015: Jarran Reed, D.J. Pettway, Darren Lake
Committed for 2015: Daron Payne, T.D. Moton, Anfernee Jennings
Others being recruited: Jonathan Taylor, CeCe Jefferson, Byron Cowart
Analysis: Alabama is going light on defensive line recruits this year, but it’s understandable given that the Tide returns virtually all of its 2014 production next season. Daron Payne’s commitment will help ease the potential blow of Jarran Reed leaving early for the 2014 NFL Draft, but T.D. Moton may be getting ready to decommit. Anfernee Jennings’ future could end up being linebacker, but he’s almost identical in build to Xzavier Dickson or to pre-JUCO D.J. Pettway and thus, should end up being a defensive end in the final analysis. Alabama would love to add a stud defensive end to play a pass-rushing role, as it’s a true need, but both CeCe Jefferson and Byron Cowart appear headed elsewhere. The interesting name in play is JUCO DT Jonathan Taylor, who is trying to overcome off-the-field issues earlier in his career. It’s unclear where he would fit in, given Alabama’s abundance of bigger defensive tackles, but his talent might be too much to overlook. If Alabama signs Taylor and still hangs onto Reed – well, the richer get richest.
Prediction: Payne, Jennings, Taylor
Linebacker
Out: Trey DePriest, Xzavier Dickson
In: Denzel Devall, Dillon Lee, Ryan Anderson, Rashaan Evans, Christian Miller, Tim Williams, Walker Jones, Shaun Dion Hamilton, Reuben Foster, Reggie Ragland, Keith Holcombe, Jamey Mosley
Leaving after 2015: Denzel Devall, Dillon Lee, Reggie Ragland
Committed for 2015: Mekhi Brown, Christian Bell, Adonis Thomas, Joshua McMillon, Keaton Anderson
Others being recruited: Roquan Smith, Shareef Miller, Lorenzo Phillips, Leo Lewis, Jeffery Holland
Analysis: Alabama is sorely needing depth at inside linebacker, but outside of McMillon, no one seems to ideally fit the bill among the recruits. Brown, Bell and Thomas are all outside linebackers first, while Anderson will need weight no matter the position he plays. One-time Bama commit Leo Lewis and Roquan Smith would seem to be the most-pursued at the moment, but Alabama seems to be content to stand pat unless a big name suddenly becomes uncommitted. For 2015, the biggest question at the moment is who will compete with and/or back up new MLB Shaun Dion Hamilton, but things get dicey quickly if Reggie Ragland decides to head to the NFL Draft. That would make Reuben Foster the starter with either Keith Holcombe or Dillon Lee the only other options.
Prediction: Brown, Bell, Thomas, McMillon, Anderson
Defensive back
Out: Nick Perry, Landon Collins (assumed), Jarrick Williams
In: Cyrus Jones, Eddie Jackson, Tony Brown, Marlon Humphrey, Bradley Sylve, Anthony Averett, Geno Smith, Jabriel Washington, Maurice Smith, Laurence Jones, Jonathan Cook
Leaving after 2015: Cyrus Jones, Bradley Sylve, Geno Smith, Jabriel Washington
Committed for 2015: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Deionte Thompson, Ronnie Harrison, Kendall Sheffield, Montrell Custis, Rico McGraw, Shawn Burgess-Becker
Others being recruited: Iman Marshall, Kris Boyd, Davante Davis, Holton Hill
Analysis: More than any position, this is the one where Alabama is dominating the competition in 2015 recruiting. Fitzpatrick and Sheffield might be the two best cornerback prospects available, Custis and McGraw are extraordinary combo players, and Thompson, Harrison and Burgess-Becker are three of the best safeties in the country. Alabama also covets Marshall and Boyd, but getting either at the moment looks like a long shot. The good news is surely welcome, because Alabama has issues in the secondary heading into 2015. Cyrus Jones is the only proven, quality player, although Eddie Jackson, Tony Brown and Bradley Sylve have shown promise. Alabama must get breakthrough performances in the spring at safety, and Laurence Jones will be looked at early on to provide one. The rest of the safety group either hasn’t had the opportunity to play much (Cook), or hasn’t done much with the opportunities they’ve gotten yet. Eddie Jackson might be tried at safety in the spring.
Prediction: Fitzpatrick, Thompson, Harrison, Sheffield, Custis, McGraw, Burgess-Becker
Special teams
Out: M.K. Taylor
In: Adam Griffith, Gunnar Raborn, J.K. Scott, Alec Morris (QB), Cole Mazza
Leaving after 2015: None
Committed for 2015: None
Others being recruited: Ryan Parris
Analysis: Alabama’s punting situation is set, to say the least. J.K. Scott should have been given the Ray Guy Award after the 2014 season, and there’s good depth behind him with Alec Morris and Adrian Lamothe. The situation is much different at placekicker, however; Adam Griffith has the talent, but was hurt and inconsistent in 2014. Walk-on Gunnar Raborn kicked in a few games in 2014 but doesn’t yet have the range to make all the kicks he needs to make. Alabama is not recruiting any kickers this cycle, but has brought in long snapper Ryan Parris for visits. With Cole Mazza a rising junior and having not had the best season, in addition to the graduation of backup M.K. Taylor, it’s possible the Tide might take another look at that position, albeit not necessarily via the scholarship route.
Prediction: None